World Football Postulant

Until I watched CD Numanica beat Barcelona, this was the upset of the weekend, and it still might be if you consider this match took place at the San Siro.  AC Milan dropped their opener to Bologna, a side I pegged to struggle to stay up this season.  The Rossoneri responded to an early goal from Marco Di Vaio with a goal through Massimo Ambrossini just before half-time, but Carlo Ancelotti’s second half substitutions seemed to slow the team down, and Milan eventually capitulated to a 79th minute goal from Francesco Valiani.

To me, Carlo Ancelotti’s substitutions were as interesting as the Milan loss, probably because I see them as being a major contributor to it.

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This summer’s rumors that Samuel Eto’o might be moving to Uzbekistan might have been more than tabloid creativity, because today’s confirmed move of Rivaldo from AEK Athens to Uzbekistani side Bunyodkor proves that the Uzbek club was big game hunting.  Rivaldo may have been off the mainstream footballing radar long enough to marginalize this move, but for the 36-year-old former Barcelona star, it is one huge payday more than most would get.  He is a name that puts Bunyodkor into the news, if only momentarily.

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The liberation of Andriy Shevchenko is complete, with the player making a permanent move to AC Milan today. Whereas the move to the San Siro was thought to be a loan, it was confirmed that the Rossoneri have fully acquired the Ukrainian striker’s rights.

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Yet another rumor surrounding Fluminense attacker Thiago Neves, though there is another suitor mentioned in this one.  This time, it is Manchester City, a team who is still looking for that marquee name after being used by Ronaldinho early this summer.  Neves, who just finished his Olympics commitment to Brazil, would fill that role, even if expectations of him are a bit high at this point.  Atlético Madrid has also been strongly mentioned in some reports, but Neves’s representation is speaking openly about a City move, something that is both a good and a bad sign.

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Andriy Shevchenko remains in a quagmire at Chelsea, a part-time (at best player) who is more likely to fill recently departed Claudio Pizarro’s shoes (at the bottom of the depth chart) than Nicolas Anelka’s, let alone Didier Drogba’s.  With Luiz Felipe Scolari coming in an looking less likely to simultaneously use two strikers, Shevchenko looks unlikely to get the 24 appearances he got last season.  Thanks to his continued success at the international level for the Ukraine (for whom he scored four goals in eight appearances last season), there remains a legion of Shevchenko backers clammoring for his liberation from Stamford Bridge.

The largest contingent of his fans remain in Milan, where Shevchenko’s glory years are still held in esteem.  While AC Milan spent the summer wooing Emmanuel Adebayor and new the eventually acquired Ronaldinho, many wondered why the currently-cash-conscious club did not bring Shevchenko, who would likely be cheaper, back.  Sheva is only two seasons removed from scoring 19 goals in Serie A for the Rossoneri.  At 31 and with his international form hinting at remaining talent, it’s not unreasonable to assume he could contribute.

That Milan-backer dream is still alive.  Continue Reading »

This is truly kicking somebody when they’re down, but today’s events need to be looked at from Manchester City’s perspective.

First, Djibril Cisse slips through their fingers after Sunderland swoops in and Marseille decides to deal him as soon as possible.  I get the feeling that Sunderland was willing to just take him, as soon as possible, and was more persistent after this weekend when Cisse’s benching made it clear has was about to go.  I can’t help but feel Manchester City’s organizational turmoil prevented them from making a quick decision on bringing in Cisse and his salary.

Second, Mikael Silvestre.  This one is much more mundane, which is why it may hurt even more.  City was about to get Silvestre from Manchester United, who have been trying to find a home for him all summer.  Right as they are ready to bring him in, Arsenal and Arsene Wenger decide they need more depth.  Silvestre was so close to making this deal that he has to call City and apologize for going to Arsenal.

So you have these two issues, another striker injury this weekend, the UEFA cup and open day loses, Tkashin Shinawatra not returning to Thailand, and that soft hum of Ronaldinho using them still audible in the background.

Mark Hughes is staying, Jô will be back soon, but yeesh:  What a difference a year makes.

Argentina’s impressive quarterfinal performance made them slightly favorites to beat an underwhelming Brazil side in today’s Olympic semifinal, but there still seemed to be something missing from a team that was expected to be much more dominant than they have been. With Sergio Agüero’s two goals today, we were shown what that missing element was. The Atlético Madrid star, voted best player in Spain last season, pushed Argentina into the final, one match away from repeating as goal medalists.

The Argentinians will meet Nigeria in a final that was expected to be an encore to the Argentina-Brazil main event, but with the Screaming Eagles beating Belgium 4-1, the final now looks like the main attraction it is supposed to be. Nigeria needed a win over the United States in its last group match to make the medal round, but once there they beat a strong Ivory Coast team 2-0 before dispatching Belgium. Given the United States was undefeated before running into the Nigerians, the Super Eagles have been the tournament’s most impressive team over the last three matches.

If Agüero can play against Nigeria as he did against Brazil, it may not matter. Whereas Lionel Messi carried the Argentinians over the Netherlands in the quarterfinals, Agüero stepped up, scored his first goals of the tournament, and returned the favor against the Brazilians. One (or both) of the two star strikers will need to ascend to similar levels in this weekend’s gold medal match, as Nigeria will be their toughest test of the tournament.

Brazil was not up to that label. Argentina went up 2-0 in the second half on Agüero goals that came six minutes apart, but they were the better team even before breaking through. After the goals, Brazil showed some brief life before becoming frustrated by the Argentinians. That frustration came to a head when Thiago Neves as Lucas Leiva were both sent off for a tackles on Javier Mascherano. For a Brazil side disappointed on again missing out on a gold medal, it was an apt end to their hopes.

Brazil will take on Belgium in the bronze medal game, a rematch of a group phase game the Brazilians won, 1-0.  Their inability to reach the gold medal match will hit Brazil hard, as the team brought the biggest name in the tournament, Ronaldinho, as an overage player in an effort to win their first goal medal.  Although Ronaldinho showed some flashes of his former self, Brazil never played up to their talent.  Dunga’s search for a cohesive lineup over the last two matches failed, and Brazil again missed out on Olympic goal. They not only missed out. They crashed out, losing 3-0 in a match that they rarely contested.

Argentina should not expect such little opposition in the final. Nigeria has come to dub their squad the Dream Team and have high expectations. Their athleticism will keep them in the match, their overage Lokomotiv Moscow star Peter Odemwingie is capable of stealing a winger should the the Nigerians stifle Argentina.

While they should be expected to win their second consecutive gold, the tournament has changed for Argentina. Their toughest match will no long be their semifinal, as was expected three weeks ago. Nigeria will be more than Brazil.

Links
Aguero inspires Brazil demise
Nigeria to meet Argentina
Nigeria reach Olympic final
Argentina routs Brazil to reach another final
Argentina knocks out rivals Brazil
Brazil humiliated by final-bound Argentina
Quick Report: Argentina 3-0 Brazil
Nigeria routs Belgium 4-1 to reach Olympic final
Super Eagles dispatch Belgium
Nigeria 4-1 Belgium: Nigeria reach Olympic final
Nigeria’s four-star show
Nigeria thump Belgium to reach Olympic final
Slick Nigeria crush sorry Belgium
Quick report: Nigeria 4-1 Belgium

What once was a summer in which Manchester City would transcend from their city’s second team into a club that would make the top four a top five now rests its salvage from failure on one player:  Roque Santa Cruz.  Whereas City was once thought to be in the lead for former World Player of the Year Ronaldinho (who ended up with AC Milan), City manager Mark Hughes has now gone back to what he knows, a former star, in the hopes that the Blues’ season can be salvaged.

One the edge of qualification last season, City has expected to be a UEFA Cup contender this year.  They have made it into the tournament via Fair Play and now have a taste of continental football, but their personnel still does not match their owner’s lofty expectations.  With the exception of Jô, acquired from CSKA Moscow, Manchester City remains roughly the same bunch of players who disappointed at the close fo last season and contributed to Sven-Goran Eriksson’s firing.  Tottenham and Newcastle have closed the gap between them and Citeh, while only Blackburn finished higher and has fallen.

With the Rovers having lost David Bentley and Brad Friedel, City hopes that Roque Santa  Cruz can also be had.  That, however, is where Blackburn seems to be drawing the line, with Paul Ince ready to hold tight to his best player, the last Rover relic from a team that finished in seventh place a year ago.

As they currently sit, both teams seem lower-mid table squads.  The result seems begrudgingly acceptable to the Rovers, who seem willing to tough out a season adjusting to life under a first year manager without two of last season’s cornerstones.  For City, though, it would be a vast disappointment, a result that seemed unlikely back in those days when Mark Hughes was freshly inked and Ronaldinho had no other options.

Though his signing would likely not matter as it concerns qualifying for European football, gettin Santa Cruz from Blackburn would at least keep Manchester City on the map.  They could say they brought in a star player, that they acquired a top-flight strike tandem.  That’s as close to salvaging the summer as they are going to get.

Links

Blackburn Rovers stand firm over Roque bid
Rovers Reject Hughes’ Roque Bid

Brazil and Argentina clearly have the two best teams in the Beijing Olympics.

The men’s tournament, which starts tomorrow, has had a new spotlight shined on it by Argentina’s desire to defend their gold and Brazil’s quest to capture the one international honor that has alluded them.  With names like Lionel Messi, Ronaldinho, Javier Mascherano, Anderson, Sergio Agüero, Diego, Juan Román Riquelme, Alexandre Pato - this list can go on - football fans have not only had their previously dormant interest in the Olympic tournament fed, but visions of an Argentina-Brazil battle for gold tempts to be the highlight of our footballing summer.

Problem: that gold medal match-up is impossible.

Argentina being in Group A and Brazil in Group C, they are drawn to the team side of the medal round, meaning that if each side wins their quarterfinal match, they will meet in the semifinals.  One of Argentina and Brazil will go on to the gold medal match.  The other will be relegated to the bronze medal match.  The match-up of the summer will take place one step sooner than we would have expected.

It is hard to fault the Olympic organizer’s too much, as they had little way to know that Brazil and Argentina would field such strong squads.  Even if they did suspect players like Ronaldinho would be in Beijing, it would be stretching the idea of equity to gerrymander the draw.  It’s not like the Olympics have a UEFA-esque coefficient system to govern such things.  For anybody who wants to bemoan what will be an anti-climactic gold medal match, know there were no ready solutions, and that we are still likely to see Argentina-Brazil.

Or maybe that should be Brazil-Argentina, reversing the order, because if the pre-tournament friendlies are any indication, Brazil should be considered the prohibitive favorite.  In addition to wanting to win this tournament badly and having the deepest roster (it’s possible both Jô and Thiago Neves will not start), they Brazilians are playing very well.  In friendlies against Singapore and Vietnam, Brazil was sharp, and most encouraging:  Ronaldinho looks in-shape, in-form, and motivated.  He was a maestro in the opponent’s third, consistently creating opportunities for teammates and forming a dynamic midfield with Werder Bremen’s Diego.  Alexandre Pato or Jô will consistently get scoring chances, and even should they not be able to produce, Manchester United’s Anderson and Liverpool’s Lucas Leiva will be lurking outside the box ready to clean-up.

Argentina’s best chance against them in the semifinals will be exploiting an inconsistent center of defence.  Thiago Silva and Breno may be the most talent pair of center backs in the tournament, but against Argentina they will be tasked with stopping the two best strikers in La Liga.  Thiago Silva lacks the experience to contain Lionel Messi and Sergio Agüero, while the 18-year-old Bayern Munich protege Breno will be out of his depth.  If Riquelme and Mascherano can maintain some possession against Brazil’s deep midfield, the ball may be at Messi and Agüero’s feet enough to win the match.

That’s the formula.  It remains to be been whether it can be executed.  My prediction after the group-by-group.  In each group, each team plays the other once, with the top two finishers advancing to the medal round.  Wins are worth three points, ties worth one, with the tiebreakers being goal differential, then goals scored.

Group A

Argentina, Australia, Côte d’Ivoire, Serbia

The two best teams are Argentina and the Ivory Coast, with their match to take place tomorrow.  An upset by the Ivorians is not out of the question, though the loser may be better off in the long-run.  The second place finisher in this group be slotted opposite Brazil’s side-of-the-draw in the medal round, meaning an easier path to the gold medal match.  The best team from this group may end up with bronze while the second place finisher, if they can make it past the Netherlands, could win silver.  For those hoping for an Argentina-Brazil final, hope for a draw or loss to Côte d’Ivoire, which features a host of Europe-based players, most-notably Chelsea’s Salomon Kalou.

1.  Argentina
2.  Côte d’Ivoire
3.  Serbia
4.  Australia

Group B

Japan, Netherlands, Nigeria, United States

The toughest group in the tournament sees the Netherlands and Nigeria as favorites, though both the United States and Japan could advance.  There is no finishing order to this group that is out-of-the-question, and the sequence in which the teams play their matches could have a subtle, defining effect on who goes through to the medal round.

The Dutch bring an attack the features Liverpool star Ryan Babel along with Feyenoord’s Roy Maakay, one season removed from staring at Bayern Munich.  Their first match will be against the Nigerians, who bring Lokomotiv Moscow’s Peter Odimwingie as their overage striker.  The sleeper in this group, the Japanese, stand a good chance of advancing, being in good form and willing to out-work their groupmates in the conditions of Beijing.  If the Nigerians drop their opening match to the Netherlands, they could crash out with a let-down in their second match against the Japanese.

And then there are the Americans.  Top-to-bottom, this team can be seen as having as much talent as any in the group, and unlike many, they are relatively strong at the back.  They’ll be able to compete in each match.

It is still a very tight group, and when considering the individual, team-by-team match-ups, it looks like a tough draw for the United States.  They open against Japan, a team that can out-work anybody but may not get the best of the Americans in an opening match.  If the United States can survive that taxing match, they get the Netherlands in their second match, and the United States has a poor history against skilled European sides.  They will need strong play from their midfield to advance.

In the third game, they have an athletic Nigerian side which will give them problems, though I like them to get a result with the Nigerians having a tough first two matches.  Even with that result, I have the Americans finishing third in the group, a result which forces me to admit that may be overly cautious towards my home country.

The second place team from this group will be matched with the winner of Group A, likely Argentina.

1.  Netherlands
2.  Japan
3.  United States
4.  Nigeria

Group C

Belgium, Brazil, China, New Zealand

Brazil has the easiest group, which includes the host nation.  China is not an international footballing power nor would you expect their U23 side to advance if this tournament were being held in another nation, but defying many logical arguments, the host nation has a way of stepping-up to the occasion in these situations.  Given the expectations that are likely to be placed on all Chinese athletes, the host team should take their task much more seriously than either Belgium or New Zealand.  When China opens the tournament against New Zealand, the visitors may be overwhelmed.  Their match three days later against a Belgium team coming off a pasting from Brazil will determine whether they advance.

The second place team from this group played the winner of Group D in the next round.

1.  Brazil
2.  China
3.  Belgium
4.  New Zealand

Group D

Cameroon, Honduras, Italy, South Korea

Italy has only one overage player to Beijing:  striker Tomasso Rocchi. At this stage of the competition, it is unlikely to matter.  They look to advance with relative ease.  It will be slightly disappointing for Americans to see Giuseppe Rossi in Italian blue.

Their main obstacles will be a Cameroon and South Korea.  Korea, like Japan, will have to be taken seriously by each opponent lest they be run off the pitch.  Cameroon, with Arsenal’s Alexander Song at the back, may be the second most-talented side of the group, but the gap between them and the Koreans may not be enough to overcome what will be a highly organized opponent.

The two sides face each other tomorrow to open their tournaments, with the loser left hoping Honduras, the fourth team in the group, can take points from the other.  If the match ends in a draw, how close Korea and Cameroon can play Italy could determine who moves on, as will their willingness to build a goal differential over the Hondurans.

1.  Italy
2.  South Korea
3.  Cameroon
4.  Honduras

Medal Round

If the above predictions hold, the top half of the draw will see a Italy-China quarterfinal opposite Netherlands-Côte d’Ivoire.  China will end up looking like the beneficiaries of an easy group draw when matched-up against a squad of Serie A-experienced players.  Italy will advance to face the Netherlands, who will have a difficult time with Côte d’Ivoire (who I originally had winning at this stage) before their experienced scorers find their way through a suspect opponent’s back line.

In the semifinal match, the Italian’s overall team strength should see them through to the finals after a relatively easy draw.  They are clearly the best team in their group, will face an upstart host-nation in the quarters, and will have the Netherlands in the semis while the other half of the draw will feature a clash of the titans.  The Dutch will go to the bronze medal game with no easier task then the Italians.  Each side will face either Brazil or Argentina.

Brazil will be annoyed by but have no problem defeating the Koreans.  Argentina, however, will get a rematch with a Japanese side they had trouble with in pre-tournament competition.  I expect the defenders to get through, though, creating the match of the tournament.  I like Brazil to move on, with Argentina going to the bronze medal match.

Even deflated from missing out on a chance at the title, Argentina will defeat the Netherlands to claim the bronze.  It may be an uneventful match defined by a few moments of individual brilliance, but while they may leave disappointed, the 2004 gold medalists will not leave Beijing empty handed.

In the gold medal match, I am tempted to pick Italy, as I think they have the ability to exploit Brazil’s weaknesses in central defense.  With Rossi and overage Tomasso Rocchi as strikers and Robert Aquafresca as a third option, the Italians can make themselves dangerous.  I bring this up because Brazil is not know for consistently playing at their best, particularly under Dunga, as their current standing in World Cup qualifying can attest.

Given that Brazil’s roster construction and tournament goals go beyond their match-up with Argentina (even though the fans’ hopes for this tournament may not go much farther), I am not betting on a Brazil let-down after dispatching Argentina.  The program wants a gold medal to complete their trophy case.  There is little reason to think Italy’s Rossi-Rocchi combination more likely to exploit Brazil than Messi-Agüero.

I give the Italians a 2-in-5 chance of winning, so I wouldn’t be shocked Italy shocked the pundants.  I, however, will merely be wrong.

Gold: Brazil
Silver: Italy
Bronze: Argentina

It was early this weekend, after getting caught up on the friendlies from the middle of last week, that I had the idea to write a column catching up on the reclamation projects from around European club football. I could talk about how Clarence Seedorf looks revitalized, how Darren Bent is making his case to Juande Ramos, and how Ronaldinho is showing flashes to greatness while training for the Olympics. That piece now seems opportunistic after Niclas Anelka rained on my parade yesterday.

In case you have not seen the results, Niclas Anelka scored four goals for Chelsea against AC Milan in the third place game of the Russian Railways Cup. One of the goals was practically given to him by Cristian Abbati when the Milan goalkeeper whiffed on a back-pass from Mathieu Flamini, fell to the ground, and gave a hard-working Anelka an easy goal. The other three Anelka goal were well-earned.

His first was a great strike from just outside the penalty area, taking a ball Shawn Wright-Phillips headed down to his feet and putting it into the lower right hand corner. It was the type of strike that we had forgotten Anelka capable of. The next earned goal was a great header from near the top of the area, a ball that the Frenchman was able to get a lot of power on despite the ball being slightly towards his back shoulder. The final ball was a cross from the left that, going all the way across goal, Anelka had to work to get a high, outstretched leg to for his fourth goal.

Part of Anelka’s success way Milan, who played an embarrassing, uninspiring match. It was remarkable. The 5-0 final score was actually generous. Milan rarely, if ever, threatened. For most of the match, they did not have a true forward on the pitch. That did not help their defense, which Chelsea just out-worked all match. It was ridiculous how much faster and more willing Anelka, Wright-Phillips, and Florent Malouda were. Even Branislav Ivanovic gave them trouble. Any time Milan would try to counter, John Terry barely broke a sweat in dealing with the attack.  As impressive as Chelsea was (they looked sharp), the match had to be depressing for fans of the Rossoneri.  They were unable to compete for all the reasons the detractors have been highlighting all summer.

Taking that into account, you have to think Anelka’s four goals scored under favorable circumstances, yet this is not the first match in which the Frenchman has impressed. In the club’s previous match, against Lokomotiv, Anelka showed the same work rate and rejuvenation of skill, highlighted by a beautiful chest trap to set up Michael Essien’s goal. In China, Anelka again impressed, and through his performance over four games has started to revitalize his deservedly negative reputation.

During the winter and spring for Chelsea and the summer for France, Anelka look lost. His greatest skill was verifying the referee’s whistle worked as he was called for offsides. Coming from Bolton during the winter transfer window into the firestorm that was Chelsea after Jose Mourinho left, hindsight sees him as unsettled. He never looked comfortable.

Now Anelka seems intent on reestablishing his reputation, and although you never want to put too much stock in friendlies, his work-rate alone is encouraging. That he has been Chelsea’s leading scorer and has done a great job of providing means, if he can keep up his form, Chelsea has a viable option at center striker should Drogba be unable or unwilling to be Didier Drogba.