World Football Postulant

This is not the way Pep Guardiola wants to start for Barcelona.

Barça, who rightfully expect to get the league title back this season, went to newly promoted CD Numancia for what everybody expected to be a smooth opening to the league campaign.  But I suppose we all needed to be reminded that there are very few easy trips in La Liga.  Of the three big European leagues, La Liga had the most quality at the bottom of the table last season, and if CD Numancia showed what we can expect from the promoted side, that statement will remain true this season.

Numancia came away from their return engagement in La Liga with a 1-0 win over one of the league’s two titans.

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Argentina’s impressive quarterfinal performance made them slightly favorites to beat an underwhelming Brazil side in today’s Olympic semifinal, but there still seemed to be something missing from a team that was expected to be much more dominant than they have been. With Sergio Agüero’s two goals today, we were shown what that missing element was. The Atlético Madrid star, voted best player in Spain last season, pushed Argentina into the final, one match away from repeating as goal medalists.

The Argentinians will meet Nigeria in a final that was expected to be an encore to the Argentina-Brazil main event, but with the Screaming Eagles beating Belgium 4-1, the final now looks like the main attraction it is supposed to be. Nigeria needed a win over the United States in its last group match to make the medal round, but once there they beat a strong Ivory Coast team 2-0 before dispatching Belgium. Given the United States was undefeated before running into the Nigerians, the Super Eagles have been the tournament’s most impressive team over the last three matches.

If Agüero can play against Nigeria as he did against Brazil, it may not matter. Whereas Lionel Messi carried the Argentinians over the Netherlands in the quarterfinals, Agüero stepped up, scored his first goals of the tournament, and returned the favor against the Brazilians. One (or both) of the two star strikers will need to ascend to similar levels in this weekend’s gold medal match, as Nigeria will be their toughest test of the tournament.

Brazil was not up to that label. Argentina went up 2-0 in the second half on Agüero goals that came six minutes apart, but they were the better team even before breaking through. After the goals, Brazil showed some brief life before becoming frustrated by the Argentinians. That frustration came to a head when Thiago Neves as Lucas Leiva were both sent off for a tackles on Javier Mascherano. For a Brazil side disappointed on again missing out on a gold medal, it was an apt end to their hopes.

Brazil will take on Belgium in the bronze medal game, a rematch of a group phase game the Brazilians won, 1-0.  Their inability to reach the gold medal match will hit Brazil hard, as the team brought the biggest name in the tournament, Ronaldinho, as an overage player in an effort to win their first goal medal.  Although Ronaldinho showed some flashes of his former self, Brazil never played up to their talent.  Dunga’s search for a cohesive lineup over the last two matches failed, and Brazil again missed out on Olympic goal. They not only missed out. They crashed out, losing 3-0 in a match that they rarely contested.

Argentina should not expect such little opposition in the final. Nigeria has come to dub their squad the Dream Team and have high expectations. Their athleticism will keep them in the match, their overage Lokomotiv Moscow star Peter Odemwingie is capable of stealing a winger should the the Nigerians stifle Argentina.

While they should be expected to win their second consecutive gold, the tournament has changed for Argentina. Their toughest match will no long be their semifinal, as was expected three weeks ago. Nigeria will be more than Brazil.

Links
Aguero inspires Brazil demise
Nigeria to meet Argentina
Nigeria reach Olympic final
Argentina routs Brazil to reach another final
Argentina knocks out rivals Brazil
Brazil humiliated by final-bound Argentina
Quick Report: Argentina 3-0 Brazil
Nigeria routs Belgium 4-1 to reach Olympic final
Super Eagles dispatch Belgium
Nigeria 4-1 Belgium: Nigeria reach Olympic final
Nigeria’s four-star show
Nigeria thump Belgium to reach Olympic final
Slick Nigeria crush sorry Belgium
Quick report: Nigeria 4-1 Belgium

The Netherlands, of whom so much was expected coming into the tournament, stumbled in the group stage and barley advanced out of their group, garnering themselves a quarterfinal match-up with giants Argentina. That stumble almost turned into Argentina’s bane as the tournament co-favorites were faced with a Dutch side that, playing to their potential, pushed them to the limit. After playing at 1-1 for over seventy minutes, Argentina’s Angel Di Maria scored in extra time to give the favorites their margin of victory.

The win sets up the match all followers have been waiting for. Argentina will face Brazil in one semifinal while the Netherlands goes home medal-less.

Lionel Messi, by reports, was dominant, scoring the Argentina’s first goal and creating numerous chances, including the one for Di Maria’s game winner. His efforts help the Argentines control the match in what might have been their best performance of the tournament. Despite this, the side still needed extra time to dispatch a Dutch team which has to be regretting their not winning Group B.

Messi has the ability to dominate a Brazil team which, while being defensively thrifty in their four matches, has not impressed.  I picked Brazil at the onset, but after overcoming the Netherlands today, Argentina holds the best result out of the two team’s eight matches.  With Dunga now second-guessing his tactic, leaving a lot of his talent on the bench, Argentina looks the better bet for the gold medal.

Links
Quick Report: Argentina 2-1 Netherlands
Messie sets up Brazil semi

Group A went pretty much to form, with Argentina earning a hard-fought victory over the Ivory Coast, 2-1 on a late goal.  Lionel Messi scored his first goal of the tournament.  Australia and Serbia played to a 1-1 tie.

The Ivory Coast find themselves at the bottom of the table after the first match, but they are still in good shape, being at only -1 on differential and having put a goal on the board.  Still, they will need six points from their next two matches to ensure advancement, though the tie breakers look headed in their direction.

While both of the group’s other teams may have thought a three-point opener within reach, Australia and Serbia’s opening match tie keeps each alive and  in a position to advance should they pull an upset over the Ivory Coast.

Group B finds the United States on top after one round of matches, though thanks to the low-scoring, this group is remains wide-open. The U.S. won what will be their easiest match but  put up only one goal in doing so. Should another team put up a 3-1 (or better) win at any point, the U.S.’s tie-breakers will look weak (especially if that win comes over the U.S.).

That hypothetical aside, the United States is now in a win-and-advance position, with a win over either the Netherlands or Nigeria preventing the loser from getting to the six point the Americans would have.

The Netherlands and Nigeria played to a scoreless draw. Nigeria plays Japan this weekend in what will be a must-win match for the Japanese. Given Japan played decently against the United States, the Nigerians would best not underestimate them. The Netherlands may think their most difficult group match behind them, but moving on to face the United States, they should be concerned about their inability to score goals, given the U.S.’s defense will be at least as good as Nigeria’s.

In Group C, Brazil failed to inspire in their opener, winning 1-0 on a Hernanes goal despite being up two men at the end of the match. The result has to be encouraging for Belgium, who should assume neither China nor New Zealand will be able to better their result. It gives the Belgians the inside track to advancing, though the will have to beat the host nation this weekend to keep their tournament alive.

China blew their opportunity for three points when they could not defeat a New Zealand side that played with ten men for most of the match. Only an eighty-eighth minute goal saved the Chinese from the ignominious distinction of losing at home, up a man. China looks to be in trouble against Belgium.

New Zealand likely loses this weekend’s match-up with Brazil but will still be in position to advance. Their match next week against Belgium will likely determine which of the three teams vying for second place advance move on.  Against Brazil, the Kiwis need to be concerned about the tie-breaker scenarios.  They should try to keep it a one goal match at all costs.

In Group D, Italy put up the most impressive result of the tournament, with Guiseppe Rossi scoring a goal.  While it is not inconceivable they will lose to Cameroon and South Korea, they look in great shape to advance.

Cameroon and South Korea, thanks to their tie, look on a collision course for four group stage points and a tie breaker scenario. With each side having one match against Italy, one match against Honduras remaining, look for each to be opportunistic but conservative against the Italians, aggressive and goal-hungry against the Hondurans.

The Court of Arbitration for Sport, to which Barcelona, Werder Bremen, and Schalke had appealed FIFA’s ruling compelling the release of U23-eligible players for the Olympics, has sided with the clubs, ruling teams are not required to release their players for participation in the Games.  The CAS said that clubs have no legal obligation to release the players since the Games do not fall within the agreed to International Match Calendar.

The CAS did, however, encourage all parties to continue working towards an amicable solution.  Shortly after the ruling, both Werder Bremen and Schalke granted their players - Diego and Rafinha, respectively - permission to play.  Barcelona has not said whether they intend to follow through on their previous plans to call Lionel Messi back from Beijing.  Argentine coach Sergio Batista has said he anticipates Messi will stay with the team after joining them late last week.

Though it ruled in the clubs favor, the CAS said it will not mandate non-released players be banned from playing in the games.  The court said that their ruling does not effect the eligibility of any players who have already been entered by their national sides.  That interpretation puts the burden for upholding this ruling not on the International Olympic Committee, FIFA, or the country’s federation.  The burden falls upon the players, who would be in breach of contract should they defy their clubs in the face of the CAS ruling.  With Diego and Rafinha having now received permission to play, the only footballer in danger of breaching contract is Messi.

Argentina opens their Olympic tournament tomorrow against the Côte d’Ivoire.  Likewise, Brazil plays tomorrow, against Belgium.  Barcelona wants Messi back for their Wednesday Champions League qualifying match with Wisla Krakow.  Schalke will take on Atlético Madrid without Rafinha.

Barcelona had previously agreed to let Messi join Argentina should Barça have a comfortable lead after the first leg of their qualifying tie.  That compromise solution was offered before the CAS ruling and would have seen Messi join Argentina for the medal round.  It is unclear whether Barcelona would be willing to grant such a release in light of the CAS’s decision.

While Messi’s Olympic hopes remain in the balance, his gold medal dreams have not been the biggest loser of the saga’s denouement; rather, it is the sport’s governing body that has taken the biggest hit.

In attempting to flex his organization’s muscle and force through a U23-policy for the Olympics that defied his own organization’s International Match Calendar, FIFA president Sepp Blatter unwittingly walked into a club-versus-country fight, misjudging his adversary in the process.  All along, it was apparently that FIFA had overreached it power (and the tacit agreement it held with clubs) when it compelled player releases for a tournament that was not taking place in a release period.  It should not have been a surprise that clubs fought the ruling, nor should FIFA have been caught off guard that the CAS upheld a club view that relied on agreed-to timelines over FIFA’s logic of custom and spirit.  While it is disappointing that the Olympics have fallen so far in esteem that individual football clubs feel justified in withholding players from the tournament, the regulations backed club claims.

There was always a chance that the CAS would rule with FIFA and uphold tradition, but FIFA should have known the clubs would balk.  The European Club Association had been itching for a battle ever since it was late showing up to 6+5’s funeral.  The ECA was going to fight to the end, no matter what.  More than for questioning the Olympic ideal or maintaining control over a few players, the ECA saw this issue as one that spoke to the heart of who controls the footballing world.  To the ECA, the clubs have control.  In the fight to affirm that control, a fight the ECA was formed to win, the clubs have won Round 1.

Perhaps Blatter and the similarly inclined UEFA president Michel Platini will tread lightly next time they wish to butt heads with the clubs, seeing that this first battle was never about the players.  Werder Bremen and Schalke’s easy about-faces on Diego and Rafinha showed that.  It was about Blatter overstepping.  The next battle could be about a Platini-pushed debt-plan or one of Blatter’s club-controlling player restrictions.  The next battle could also be waged for Platini or Blatter’s jobs, with the clubs exerting pressure on their home federations to start looking out for the local interests in addition to contemplating which nation gets a major tournament.

The CAS’s ruling not only rebuffed Blatter and FIFA on the Olympics, it rebuffed the whole organization and marginalized it power by backing the clubs.  The clubs now know they have a track to follow in restraining FIFA.  That Blatter would ever let this battle come to this point was a huge tactical error.  Now FIFA’s lack of power is evident, splashed across every football site in the world.  Before it tripped into this fight,  FIFA’s impotence was a topic for message board conversation and football theorists with excessive time on their hands.  Had Blatter not engaged in this beguiling act of hubris and stuck to the letter of the law - or, better yet, worked with and not over the clubs - FIFA would today be stronger for having brokered a solution.

But today they are weaker, their most dangerous adversary is stronger, and the organization is left to fire verbal salvos referencing spirit and custom.  Even in that vein they have ceded the high road to Werder and Schalke, who have magnanimously released their players.  FIFA, in contrast, remains petulant.

Quotes
“The Court of Arbitration for Sport (CAS) has upheld the appeals filed by FC Schalke 04, SV Werder Bremen and FC Barcelona against the decision issued on 30 July 2008 by the Single Judge of the Fifa’s Players’ Status Committee that consequently has been set aside in its entirety.” - CAS
“The Olympic Football Tournament Beijing 2008 is not included in the Co-ordinated Match Calendar and there is no specific decision of the Fifa Executive Committee establishing the obligation for the clubs to release players under 23 for this tournament.” - CAS
“The requirements to justify a legal obligation of clubs to release their players for the Football Tournament Beijing 2008 on the basis of customary law are not met.” - CAS
“I’m calm and confident about this because I have spoken with the player and know what [Messi] is thinking. The player is going to make it clear to Barcelona that he wants to stay here.” - Batista
“In view of FIFA’s recommendation made to the clubs to release their players as well as of the Olympic spirit, the CAS call upon the goodwill and good sense of FIFA and the clubs to find a reasonable solution with regard to players who wish to represent their country in the Olympic Games.” - CAS
“We are confident and hopeful that [Messi] will remain here with the team for the whole tournament.” - Batista
“Fifa is surprised and disappointed by this decision, but we respect it.” - Blatter
“I regret that the CAS has not taken the Olympic spirit into consideration.” -  Blatter
“The Olympic Football Tournaments are a unique opportunity for a player as they are high-level competitions that give everyone involved - most notably young players - the chance to gain international experience that will stand them in good stead for the future.  It stands to reason, therefore, that it is not only the player and his national team who can benefit from such an experience, but also his club.” - Blatter
“I do not want to go into the legal side of all this, but I do know that [Messi] will be playing with us for the entire championship.” - Batista
“Theoretically the clubs could ask their players to go back to Europe because they would be entitled to do so.  And if the players do not come back there could be a case of a breach of contract.” - Matthieu Reeb, secretary, CAS
“It is now the moment for everyone to sit at the table and find a reasonable solution.  Of course, this could affect the tournament and it’s in the interest of nobody to destroy what could be an extraordinary tournament this year. But this is a matter for clubs, FIFA and the players to decide.” - Reeb
“We could have done with our strongest squad for these matches. We firmly believe, however, that unfortunately there is absolutely no point in bringing Rafinha back one day before our opening game.” - Andreas Muller, general manager, Schalke
“All the frustration and the huge disappointment he would feel, coupled with the exertions of travelling, would not in our opinion have put him in a position to play to the best of his ability.” - Muller

Links
Court blocks Messi from playing
Clubs win Olympic appeal
Fifa disappointed with CAS decision
FIFA disappointed by CAS decision
Messi wants to stay with Argentina - Batista
Clubs win appeal; Messi wants to play
Barcelona to decide Messi fate
German clubs release players for Olympics
Clubs U-Turn Over Olympic Brazilians
Blatter ‘Surprised & Disappointed’
Olympics: CAS steps in to stop players heading to Beijing
Trio wins Olympics appeal
European clubs win Olympic appeal

Brazil and Argentina clearly have the two best teams in the Beijing Olympics.

The men’s tournament, which starts tomorrow, has had a new spotlight shined on it by Argentina’s desire to defend their gold and Brazil’s quest to capture the one international honor that has alluded them.  With names like Lionel Messi, Ronaldinho, Javier Mascherano, Anderson, Sergio Agüero, Diego, Juan Román Riquelme, Alexandre Pato - this list can go on - football fans have not only had their previously dormant interest in the Olympic tournament fed, but visions of an Argentina-Brazil battle for gold tempts to be the highlight of our footballing summer.

Problem: that gold medal match-up is impossible.

Argentina being in Group A and Brazil in Group C, they are drawn to the team side of the medal round, meaning that if each side wins their quarterfinal match, they will meet in the semifinals.  One of Argentina and Brazil will go on to the gold medal match.  The other will be relegated to the bronze medal match.  The match-up of the summer will take place one step sooner than we would have expected.

It is hard to fault the Olympic organizer’s too much, as they had little way to know that Brazil and Argentina would field such strong squads.  Even if they did suspect players like Ronaldinho would be in Beijing, it would be stretching the idea of equity to gerrymander the draw.  It’s not like the Olympics have a UEFA-esque coefficient system to govern such things.  For anybody who wants to bemoan what will be an anti-climactic gold medal match, know there were no ready solutions, and that we are still likely to see Argentina-Brazil.

Or maybe that should be Brazil-Argentina, reversing the order, because if the pre-tournament friendlies are any indication, Brazil should be considered the prohibitive favorite.  In addition to wanting to win this tournament badly and having the deepest roster (it’s possible both Jô and Thiago Neves will not start), they Brazilians are playing very well.  In friendlies against Singapore and Vietnam, Brazil was sharp, and most encouraging:  Ronaldinho looks in-shape, in-form, and motivated.  He was a maestro in the opponent’s third, consistently creating opportunities for teammates and forming a dynamic midfield with Werder Bremen’s Diego.  Alexandre Pato or Jô will consistently get scoring chances, and even should they not be able to produce, Manchester United’s Anderson and Liverpool’s Lucas Leiva will be lurking outside the box ready to clean-up.

Argentina’s best chance against them in the semifinals will be exploiting an inconsistent center of defence.  Thiago Silva and Breno may be the most talent pair of center backs in the tournament, but against Argentina they will be tasked with stopping the two best strikers in La Liga.  Thiago Silva lacks the experience to contain Lionel Messi and Sergio Agüero, while the 18-year-old Bayern Munich protege Breno will be out of his depth.  If Riquelme and Mascherano can maintain some possession against Brazil’s deep midfield, the ball may be at Messi and Agüero’s feet enough to win the match.

That’s the formula.  It remains to be been whether it can be executed.  My prediction after the group-by-group.  In each group, each team plays the other once, with the top two finishers advancing to the medal round.  Wins are worth three points, ties worth one, with the tiebreakers being goal differential, then goals scored.

Group A

Argentina, Australia, Côte d’Ivoire, Serbia

The two best teams are Argentina and the Ivory Coast, with their match to take place tomorrow.  An upset by the Ivorians is not out of the question, though the loser may be better off in the long-run.  The second place finisher in this group be slotted opposite Brazil’s side-of-the-draw in the medal round, meaning an easier path to the gold medal match.  The best team from this group may end up with bronze while the second place finisher, if they can make it past the Netherlands, could win silver.  For those hoping for an Argentina-Brazil final, hope for a draw or loss to Côte d’Ivoire, which features a host of Europe-based players, most-notably Chelsea’s Salomon Kalou.

1.  Argentina
2.  Côte d’Ivoire
3.  Serbia
4.  Australia

Group B

Japan, Netherlands, Nigeria, United States

The toughest group in the tournament sees the Netherlands and Nigeria as favorites, though both the United States and Japan could advance.  There is no finishing order to this group that is out-of-the-question, and the sequence in which the teams play their matches could have a subtle, defining effect on who goes through to the medal round.

The Dutch bring an attack the features Liverpool star Ryan Babel along with Feyenoord’s Roy Maakay, one season removed from staring at Bayern Munich.  Their first match will be against the Nigerians, who bring Lokomotiv Moscow’s Peter Odimwingie as their overage striker.  The sleeper in this group, the Japanese, stand a good chance of advancing, being in good form and willing to out-work their groupmates in the conditions of Beijing.  If the Nigerians drop their opening match to the Netherlands, they could crash out with a let-down in their second match against the Japanese.

And then there are the Americans.  Top-to-bottom, this team can be seen as having as much talent as any in the group, and unlike many, they are relatively strong at the back.  They’ll be able to compete in each match.

It is still a very tight group, and when considering the individual, team-by-team match-ups, it looks like a tough draw for the United States.  They open against Japan, a team that can out-work anybody but may not get the best of the Americans in an opening match.  If the United States can survive that taxing match, they get the Netherlands in their second match, and the United States has a poor history against skilled European sides.  They will need strong play from their midfield to advance.

In the third game, they have an athletic Nigerian side which will give them problems, though I like them to get a result with the Nigerians having a tough first two matches.  Even with that result, I have the Americans finishing third in the group, a result which forces me to admit that may be overly cautious towards my home country.

The second place team from this group will be matched with the winner of Group A, likely Argentina.

1.  Netherlands
2.  Japan
3.  United States
4.  Nigeria

Group C

Belgium, Brazil, China, New Zealand

Brazil has the easiest group, which includes the host nation.  China is not an international footballing power nor would you expect their U23 side to advance if this tournament were being held in another nation, but defying many logical arguments, the host nation has a way of stepping-up to the occasion in these situations.  Given the expectations that are likely to be placed on all Chinese athletes, the host team should take their task much more seriously than either Belgium or New Zealand.  When China opens the tournament against New Zealand, the visitors may be overwhelmed.  Their match three days later against a Belgium team coming off a pasting from Brazil will determine whether they advance.

The second place team from this group played the winner of Group D in the next round.

1.  Brazil
2.  China
3.  Belgium
4.  New Zealand

Group D

Cameroon, Honduras, Italy, South Korea

Italy has only one overage player to Beijing:  striker Tomasso Rocchi. At this stage of the competition, it is unlikely to matter.  They look to advance with relative ease.  It will be slightly disappointing for Americans to see Giuseppe Rossi in Italian blue.

Their main obstacles will be a Cameroon and South Korea.  Korea, like Japan, will have to be taken seriously by each opponent lest they be run off the pitch.  Cameroon, with Arsenal’s Alexander Song at the back, may be the second most-talented side of the group, but the gap between them and the Koreans may not be enough to overcome what will be a highly organized opponent.

The two sides face each other tomorrow to open their tournaments, with the loser left hoping Honduras, the fourth team in the group, can take points from the other.  If the match ends in a draw, how close Korea and Cameroon can play Italy could determine who moves on, as will their willingness to build a goal differential over the Hondurans.

1.  Italy
2.  South Korea
3.  Cameroon
4.  Honduras

Medal Round

If the above predictions hold, the top half of the draw will see a Italy-China quarterfinal opposite Netherlands-Côte d’Ivoire.  China will end up looking like the beneficiaries of an easy group draw when matched-up against a squad of Serie A-experienced players.  Italy will advance to face the Netherlands, who will have a difficult time with Côte d’Ivoire (who I originally had winning at this stage) before their experienced scorers find their way through a suspect opponent’s back line.

In the semifinal match, the Italian’s overall team strength should see them through to the finals after a relatively easy draw.  They are clearly the best team in their group, will face an upstart host-nation in the quarters, and will have the Netherlands in the semis while the other half of the draw will feature a clash of the titans.  The Dutch will go to the bronze medal game with no easier task then the Italians.  Each side will face either Brazil or Argentina.

Brazil will be annoyed by but have no problem defeating the Koreans.  Argentina, however, will get a rematch with a Japanese side they had trouble with in pre-tournament competition.  I expect the defenders to get through, though, creating the match of the tournament.  I like Brazil to move on, with Argentina going to the bronze medal match.

Even deflated from missing out on a chance at the title, Argentina will defeat the Netherlands to claim the bronze.  It may be an uneventful match defined by a few moments of individual brilliance, but while they may leave disappointed, the 2004 gold medalists will not leave Beijing empty handed.

In the gold medal match, I am tempted to pick Italy, as I think they have the ability to exploit Brazil’s weaknesses in central defense.  With Rossi and overage Tomasso Rocchi as strikers and Robert Aquafresca as a third option, the Italians can make themselves dangerous.  I bring this up because Brazil is not know for consistently playing at their best, particularly under Dunga, as their current standing in World Cup qualifying can attest.

Given that Brazil’s roster construction and tournament goals go beyond their match-up with Argentina (even though the fans’ hopes for this tournament may not go much farther), I am not betting on a Brazil let-down after dispatching Argentina.  The program wants a gold medal to complete their trophy case.  There is little reason to think Italy’s Rossi-Rocchi combination more likely to exploit Brazil than Messi-Agüero.

I give the Italians a 2-in-5 chance of winning, so I wouldn’t be shocked Italy shocked the pundants.  I, however, will merely be wrong.

Gold: Brazil
Silver: Italy
Bronze: Argentina

Mario Gómez looks like he has regained the form he temporarily lost at Euro 2008. What could have been the coming-out party for the young striker turned into a nightmare as he lost his starting spot in Joachim Löw’s Germany team after two tournament matches. He’s returned to his club and regained his form, but the opportunity to move to a big club will have to be rebuilt after the Stuttgart striker lost a lot of his value between Austria and Switzerland.

At was the thought on Gómez have the recently-turned 23-year-old showed so poorly at the European Championships, yet today VfB Stuttgart revealed Bayern Munich registered a bid for the striker which would have set a Bundesliga record, had it been accepted.   Stuttgart elected to hold their leading scorer in spite of a €25 million bid from the league’s champions.  That sounds like an incredible amount of money - a rate that only the top names in the market are getting - but when you consider Gómez’s value is unlikely to get any lower after what happened this summer, Stuttgart may be wise to hold.

Bayern plans to make another bid next year for the striker, at which time his value is likely to be higher.  I suppose it’s possible Gómez’s value could continue to drop as he experiences a carry-over from Euro, but that seems incredibly unlikely given his body of work.  Gómez was Germany’s best forward during the winter international friendlies that led up to Euro 2008, leading Joachim Löw to choose that now famous formation with Lukas Podolski on left wing.  He scored 28 goals in 32 games for a Stuttgart team which played Champions League football after their league title in 2007.  And lest anybody forget, he was chosen German Footballer of the Year after leading Stuttgart to that title, the club’s first in fifteen seasons.

In preseason action for Stuttgart, it’s clear Gómez has regained the burst in his step, a relief for any football fan who likes to see the elite of the world performing at their best.  Gómez is not the best striker in the world, but amongst traditional, center strikers, he is at least part of a preliminary discussion.  Once you start putting age-limits on the conversation, you remember how young Gómez is and how well he’s produced.  He’s a bit older than Karim Benzema, a bit younger than Klass-Jan Huntelaar, creating a compelling spectrum on continental strikers.  Extend the spectrum down to include Lionel Messi and Sergio Agüero and you have a pretty interesting essay (if also an opportunity to miss some names)

While Gómez’s resume is impressive, it is baffling that Bayern continue to pursue him and makes you wonder what their long term plans are for Luca Toni.  Lukas Podolski is still one step short of wantaway status, but with his potential conversion to left-wing, is seems strange for Bayern to give up on him.  Miroslav Klöse is giong nowhere as no team outside Germany will meet Bayern’s evaluation of him.  Toni, however, seems destined to eventually return to Italy, and with AC Milan and AS Roma have potential needs for lead strikers into the immediate future, a sale of Toni to the Serie A after Bayern confirms Gómez next season is not a difficult scenario to imagine.

At that point, Bayern would have the German national team attack:  Klöse and Gómez up top; Podolski and Bastian Schweinsteiger on the wings.   While it would be the wet dream of München fans, I don’t see Michael Ballack completing the reunion that soon.  Ballack aside, if Jürgen Klinsmann can make the talent work, it could be a Champions League-challenging side.  Whether he can make  it work while Joachim Löw could not is the question.  I am not sure I would swap Gómez in for Toni to try.

Quotes

“We didn’t want any team’s money.  We wanted to keep Germany’s player of the year.” - Horst Heldt, manager, Stuttgart

Links

Stuttgart spurns Bayern’s record offer for Gomez

It was only a friendly, but yesterday Barcelona and Fiorentina stepped up their preparations for Champions League qualifying by facing each other. Both clubs sent out strong starting lineups.

For Barcelona, Lionel Messi started (before leaving today to join Argentina), as did Andreas Iniesta, Xavi Hernandez, Carles Puyol and Daniel Alves. Bojan Krkic came on at half-time. Alexander Hleb was subbed in half-way through the second. Iniesta had to be subbed-out with an injury in the first half.

Fiorentina started both Adrian Mutu and Alberto Gilardino up front, subbing them out along with four others in the 56th minute. By that time, Barcelona had gone up 2-0.

La Viola has to be a little disappointed at not putting up a better fight. True, it was only a friendly, but it’s only two weeks until they’re playing these matches for real, and they were reported out-classed by Barça. Their defense, which lost Tomás Ujfalusi to Atlético Madrid this summer, was unable to match-up with Barcelona (though few defenses are).

Every time I see somebody predicting Fiorentina to improve on last year’s finish, I want to ask them how the club replaced Ujfalusi.  In my mind, they haven’t.  I’m withholding judgement on how well Juan Manuel Vargas will work.

Fiorentina is seeded for tomorrow’s Champions League draw, which means they’ll miss other seeded powers like Arsenal, Liverpool, and Barcelona, but there are dangerous teams that could get (like Atlético Madrid). They’ll need to use the next two weeks to prepare for such a match-up.

Barcelona continues looking good. They rolled out a 4-4-2 for this match, a slight diversion from their typical tactic, but still continued their string of convincing performances that started with the tour of Scotland, where they demolished Dundee United and Hibernian. This may be an instance of drawing too much from friendlies, but even though Barcelona is in the same situation as Fiorentina for tomorrows Champions League draw, they will have little to fear if they continue executing as they have.

Quotes

“We’re still not in our best physical condition but we will be ready for the preliminaries, matches which we’re really looking forward to.” - Cesare Prandelli, coach, Fiorentina

Links

Barcelona Teach Fiorentina A Lesson
Prandelli:  We’ll be ready
Prandelli pained by defeat

After FIFA ruled today that clubs must release their U23 eligible players, Barcelona striker Lionel Messi will leave his club to join the Argentina Olympic team. In the interim, Barcelona will join in Schalke and Werder Bremen’s appeal of the Court of Arbitration for Sport, hoping FIFA’s ruling will be overturned. If that happens, Barça expects Messi to return. The striker has indicated he would, if such a ruling came down.

What the clubs are seeking is a ruling from the CAS that the players are in breach of their contracts by not reporting to the clubs.  Say the ruling goes their way.  Then what?  The ball goes into the player’s court, and while Messi seems willing to return to Barcelona should their claim be upheld, Schalke’s Rafinha and Bremen’s Diego have been willing to defy their clubs throughout the month.  Having gone absent without their release when the Brazil Olympic team went to Asia, what’s to say they will just return if the CAS says so in light of FIFA’s decision?

The clubs could cancel their contracts, but what good would that do?  Players as young as Diego and Rafinha are undoubtedly slightly underpaid in their deals.  Having proved themselves capable players in the Bundesliga, a small, profitable bidding war will start should the players hit the market.  Neither Schalke nor Bremen should want to let them go.

They could fine the players for being in breach of contract, but will that affect any kind  of remedy or change?

The clubs should be less concerned with the individual players and more with FIFA and the remedies at their disposal.  To their knowledge, they are only obligated to release players during the international match calendar’s release periods.  The Olympics fall outside one of those periods, yet clubs are still having players taken from them.  Instead of seeking to punish the players, let them play in the Olympics and instead start acting to limit the power of FIFA to unilaterally change these rules.

There is a  fine line between fighting the ruling, changing the system and aggravating your players.  The clubs have done a precarious  job of walking that line throughout this ordeal.  As this fight reaches its climax, clubs much be careful not to reach too far.  In the end, they need to let the players go and never let FIFA forget that they did.  In the four year between now and London, start pushing back against FIFA’s  ability to capriciously make similar decisions.

Quotes

“I hope [Diego] comes back to Bremen immediately because he has an agreement with Werder.  If he does not stick to it, then there will be consequences from the club.” - Torsten Frings, midfielder, Werder Bremen

Links

Messi heads to China after FIFA ruling
Barcelona may appeal Messi Olympic ruling
Frings Urges Diego To Return
CAS called in to settle Olympic dispute
Bremen and Schalke in new Olympics appeal
Bremen,  Schalke to fight FIFA’s Olympics ruling

FIFA ruled today that clubs must release their U23-eligible players for the Olympics in one of the most anticlimactic, predictable, and redundant pieces of news this summer.  This marked the third time that FIFA, in some form, had reiterated the stance that it had always held.  FIFA’s sanctioning the Olympics and, of course, is going to maintain its value.

Their reiteration does nothing to change the minds of Bundesliga clubs like Werder Bremen and Schalke who continue to maintain players need not be released.  The next step for them is to back-up their threat to appeal to the Court of Arbitration for Sport.  The clubs had already filed an appeal, but the CAS put it aside to wait for FIFA’s final decision.  It’s an appeal that seems unlikely to work, as the CAS is likely to nod towards FIFA and the stature of the Olympics, never mind that the clubs technically have a point.  The Olympics are not part of the International Match Calendar.

The best case scenario out of all this would have been for FIFA to not mandate the clubs but the clubs release their players.  That way, the issue doesn’t turn into a power play while those players who are selected to play get to participate.  The clubs and FIFA could then start working to ensure a potential confrontation is avoided for the Great Britian games in 2012.  As is, that confrontation is happening now.

The only club who may change their plans to withhold a player release is Barcelona, who seemed to be putting more weight in FIFA’s decision than the German clubs were.  Still, if Barça was so differential towards FIFA, Lionel Messi would be in Beijing now.  As is, he trains with Barcelona.

With the ruling today, FIFA risks looking more inept that they have throughout this process, remarkable considering the brashness with which the Bundesliga clubs and Barcelona have disregarded their rulings.  If, after taking this extra time to consider the issue and issue a dramatic, ultimate declaration, the clubs still defy FIFA, what does that say about the governing body?

The ball is now in the Barcelona’s court, as well as the European Club Association’s.  Expect them to persist in their views.  Barcelona seems willing to let Messi leave temporarily with the expectation he will return if a CAS appeal goes in their favor.

Quotes

“The single judge of the Players’ Status Committee, Slim Aloulou (Tunisia), decided today, 30 July 2008, that the release of players under the age of 23 for the Men’s Olympic Football Tournament Beijing 2008 is mandatory for all clubs. Previously, on 29 July 2008, the FIFA Emergency Committee also took a decision in the same sense.” - FIFA
“The single judge determined that the international match calendar is not of relevance in establishing whether clubs are obliged to release players for the Men’s Olympic Football Tournament.” - FIFA
“The single judge stated that taking part in the Olympic Games is a unique opportunity for all athletes of any sporting discipline, and that it would not be justifiable to prevent any player younger than 23 from participating in such an event if his representative team had qualified.” - FIFA
“I am waiting to see what FIFA says and, if it says I don’t have to go, I won’t go.  If it says I have to go, I will go without awaiting the decision of the CAS, because that would be too long for my teammates and squad management to have to wait.” - Messi
“Barcelona continues with its stance of not wanting to let me go and I understand it.  But I also think they have to understand that my dream is to take part in the Olympic Games with the national team.” - Messi
“FC Barcelona will shortly present before the CAS, or Court of Arbitration for Sport, an appeal against this decision in which it will request the ruling be rescinded and that proceedings be completed with the maximum speed possible.” - Barcelona
“At this stage we are at an impasse. We are going to meet with Messi to take the most convenient decision for both sides.” - Joan Laporta, president, Barcelona
“We understand it is very complex to retain a player. Messi will do what the rules say and I understand these will be interpreted in favor of Barcelona by CAS.” - Laporta
“From the beginning I’ve said that I want to play for my national team and I’ve never had problems until now.” - Messi

Links

FIFA rule clubs mist release U23 Olympic stars
Barcelona must release Messi for Beijing
Barcelona must release Messi for Beijing
Clubs must release U-23s for Olympics, says Fifa
Barca may contest Olympics ruling
FIFA demand Messi released for Olympics
Fifa rules against clubs for Olympics