Aside from the top six teams in the league, I was not very familiar with the Eredivisie before going the research for these predictions.  As was the case when I forecasted the Bungesliga and the Portuguese Liga, I am somewhat ignorant of Dutch football.  That, however, will not stop me from trying to become a real follower, with this being my first stab.  To the right, you will see my prognostications for the upcoming season, which starts this weekend.

For these predictions, I used the same method I used for all my other previews.  I looked at every position on every team and asked how that player will effect the team’s goals for and goal against.  Once I had that, I was able to project a goals for, goal against ratio, with which I was able to simulate a double-round robin season.  I wrote a script to do this simulation and have used it for every prediction save Ligue 1’s.  For the Eredivisie, I ran the script 10,000 times to minimize the effect of any statistical noise.

And if that doesn’t make football sound boring, nothing will.

When you watch Eredivisie football, the thing which stands out is the wide-out play.  There are more teams playing three forwards in the Dutch league than anywhere else.  In addition, teams play very wide, attacking football.  This leads to a ton of goals.  The league had one team, Ajax, almost break 100 goals last season.  It is an athlete’s league, a scorer’s league, and almost the mirror image of football in Portugal.  You can see why so many players in this league make an easy transition to the Bundesliga.

Ajax added Marco van Basten and retained almost all of their key players.  They are in a great position to unseat four-time champion PSV Eindhoven, who lost Jefferson Farfan in addition to their starting goaltender, Huerelho Gomes.  PSV only finished three points ahead of Ajax last season and had a worse goal differential.  Having retained leading scorer and new captain Klass-Jan Huntelaar, added van Basten and Miralem Sulejmani (who scored 15 goals for Heerenveen last season).  This is the season where PSV - the Porto, Bayern, Lyon of the Eredivisie - slip to an Ajax side partly motivated by missing out on the Champions League thanks to the now discarded post-season playoffs.  As you can see to the right, I don’t think it will be particularly close.

That playoff format, used also in the Dutch second division (Eerste Divisie), is why a team that finished sixth amongst those vying for promotion finds itself in the Eredivisie.  ADO Den Haag won the promotion playoffs and like, FC Twente (who won the Eredivisie playoff to qualify for Champions League qualifying) looked out of their element against Arsenal, ADO Den Haag will look out of their element in the Eredivisie.

In between top and bottom, the team that has done the most to improve itself is AZ, a team that struggled (relatively) to score goals last season but brought in a series of scorers to help move them back into a UEFA Cup qualifying spot.  They should, at least, be competitive.

The one big surprise I have, after I ran the numbers, is Heerenveen.  In my simulations, there were basically as good as PSV.  I thought, in losing one of their three best goal scorers, they would take a step back from their fifth place finish, but as I looked closer a.) their fifth place finish seemed to understate their performance, and b.) other teams were regressing more than them.

But the story of this Eredivisie season will be at the top, where the league’s two storied clubs will against fight it out for the title.  I have Ajax finally breaking through, but as I mentioned at the onset of this post, what do I know?

One of the more exciting days of the European club football season is the day the Champions League group stage is drawn.

The 32 teams that have qualified for the group stage are drawn into eight, four-team groups.  Before that happens, all teams are broken into four pots, labeled A through D, where they are grouped according to a team’s strength (as determined by a formula called a coefficient).  Each of the eight groups can have no more than one team from each pot, no more than one team from a country.  The eight groups end up pretty even.

The draw is fun because you end up with a series of matches which, in addition to being high profile based on the quality of the teams involved, are rare.  In the days before the draw, you start considering the possibilities and potential story lines:  Chelsea and Fiorentina in a group, forcing Adrian Mutu to play the club he owes £14 million; Marseille being slotted with Arsenal months after having sold them Samir Nasri, and potentially getting Bayern Munich in the group, so they would have to face Franck Ribery; Barcelona being slotted with a Zenit St. Petersburg team whose star, Andrei Arshavin, so badly wanted to play at Camp Nou; FC Porto being grouped with Inter Milan and facing Jose Mourinho.

Here’s how the eight groups ended up being drawn, with the clubs listed in order of the group they were drawn from:  A to D.  Continue Reading »

It’s hard to look back on Week 1 given what’s on tap for the second week of the Portuguese Liga.  Benfica, coming off an embarrassing draw at promoted Rio Ave, have a chance to redeem the start of their season and go into the international break on a high note when they host Porto on Saturday.  With Porto off to another controlling start, Benfica will need a result lest they fall five points behind.

But first, let’s look back at last week’s picks.

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The third week picks for Ligue 1 was the first set of predictions that showed some promise. The draws amongst the lower-table clubs were the bulk of my errors, but with correct predictions in half the week’s matches, it was a successful week. With the schedule for Week 4 being a little less contentious, a small winning streak may be on the horizon.

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Now everything makes sense. It took us three weeks, but that Ligue 1 I grew to love last year is back. The top three in the table are Marseille, Lyon and Bordeaux. I exhale in relief.

Okay, so maybe I wasn’t too concerned about the state of Ligue 1 without the typically successful clubs at the top. In fact, I wasn’t phased at all, but I am eager for the start of what looks to be a three team championship race. There yet isn’t sufficient distance between Bordeaux (third, as of now) and the rest of the table, but with the three at the top looking at another relatively easy week this weekend, that distance may be coming.

As for the pretenders from last week, Grenoble never threatened Lyon, losing 2-0 after going down six minutes into the match, and Monaco’s lacking attack could not get three points at him from Caen. This week, Grenoble and Monaco face each other, meaning at last one will have trouble keeping up, while two other teams on the heals of the top three (Nice and Valenciennes) are also matched-up. This might be the week that gap starts to form.

But for all this talk about how the top of the table is shaping up, the match of the week involved two teams who currently rank no higher than tenth. Rennes put in two injury time goes to take three points over Lille, the first win for either club, in one of those matches that leaves a neutral slack jawed. Did that just happen?

With Week 2 done and gone, French clubs shifted focus to the continent, where Marseille finished qualifying for Champions League only to see them slotting into the group that got Atletico Madrid from Pot 4. That meant they would be in the deepest group, joined by Liverpool and PSV Eindhoven, in a quartet that gives them a chance to move on. Lyon and Bordeaux each get tougher groups, and some think Lyon’s to be as deep as Marseille’s.

In UEFA Cup qualifying, Rennes was able to overcome a one goal deficit after their first leg against Norway’s Stabaek. The join Paris St. Germain, Nancy, and St. Etienne in awaiting tomorrow’s UEFA Cup draw for the first round. With none of those four playing that well at the season’s start, they will be hoping to avoid some of the draw’s giants: AC Milan, Schalke 04, Benfica, Valencia, Galatasaray, and Manchester City.

Just kidding about City.

Karim Benzema has already risen to the top of the league in goals, the only player to reach three. Without being the best player in any individual week, he has been the league’s overall best player thus far and continue to raise his international profile. With a goal in France’s friendly last week against Sweden, Benzema already has four total goals this season. This week at St. Etienne, he will have his work cut out, though Les Verts have been allowing a goal a match through three.

And in Ligue 1, the sack race is over. Nantes fired Michel der Zakarian earlier this week after the promoted club found themselves at the bottom of the table after three games. Given the timing, Nantes seems to have had to beat Bordeaux, at Bordeaux, last weekend to keep his job. Clearly, getting the club promoted last season was not enough, and I wish whoever replaces him the best of luck. Your goal, apparently, is not staying up. It’s catching Marseille.

WFP Ligue 1 Club Rankings

	Rank	Last Week	Club
	1	1	Marseille A workmanlike win on the road at Le Havre saw them held under four goals for the first time this season. The team has played two Champions Legaue qualifiers during this opening stretch and will be happy to get Sochaux this week and then the international break. Their reward: a tough but winnable Champions League group.
	2	2	Lyon Popped the Grenoble bobble and assumed their place atop the league. They might also want to Marseille return to “form” a bit, as right now it looks like Claude Puel will have a fight in Le Championnat. That fight has been compounded by a tough Champions League group, getting Bayern Munich, Steaua Bucharest, and Fiorentina.
	3	3	Bordeaux Got back to their winning ways this week following a shock loss the week before to PSG. They got, for them, a horrible Champions League draw, a solid third best team behind Chelsea and AS Roma. Good luck with that, Laurent Blanc.
	4	9	Valenciennes This is will be a team that I’m biased towards all year on the back of a preseason prediction, but a strong home result versus Lorient this weekend justifies my faith. For now.
	5	6	Le Mans There were a series of clubs I was down on coming into the season, and Le Mans was one, but their last two weeks - particularly this week’s win over St. Etienne - has opened my eyes. They have no truly bad results on their resume and have won two in a row. They’ve been strong
	6	4	Caen Another club I was unsure about at season’s start. I’m not as high on them as I am Le Mans, and their ranking here reflects a general uncertainty with those below them.
	7	12	Monaco Have drawn two in a row after beating PSG to open the season. They have only three goals in three matches and lack dynamism in their attack.
	8	7	Paris St. Germain A lot of this ranking is based on their win two weeks ago over Bordeaux, the only loss any of the top three have been given. Their result against Sochaux was disappointing, but when penalty kicks are involved, I give extra consideration.
	9	5	Lorient Only Nancy has scored fewer goals than Lorient, but with a win at Le Mans and a draw versus Lyon, they could be ranked higher. Once they find some goals, I’ll move them up.
	10	13	St. Etienne I can’t shake the feeling that this team should be better. They should be scoring more goals, but they were shut out in each of their road appearances: at Valenviennes, at Le Mans. According to these rankings, that’s a bit of a tough schedule, and having taken care of business in their one home fixture, they get ranked in the middle of the table.
	11	8	Grenoble Lyon made it clear they had no business at the top of the table, but it was good while it lasted. They still have a ways to go to be back in a relegation battle, but for a team that was barely promoted, it’s a smashing start.
	12	10	Rennes This team hass been all over the place. They got that miracle draw in Week 1 against Marseille - the only points the leaders have failed to get - and then lost to Grenoble. They beat Lille this weak, but as they have been in the UEFA Cup, their Ligue 1 performances have been all over the place.
	13	11	Toulouse A 0-0 draw at Nancy could prove a strong result come April and May, and for a team that will struggle to stay up, it’s a great point.
	14	14	Le Havre Good on them to hold Marseille to one goal, the first time this year a team has contained them. The team also drew over 16,000 tot he match, a fine turnout.
	15	17	Nice This is the team with the greatest disparity between actual table ranking and WSP rankings. They have two wins, but they are against Nancy and Auxerre. They have allowed Nancy’s only goal. As of now, I don’t see it.
	16	19	Lille A tough loss to Rennes this week as Stade came back with two goals very late, doing their best Liverpool impressive, to take all the points. They are ranked a couple of spots higher here than they sit in the table, but I feel like I might be being generous.
	17	15	Auxerre Auxerre gets ranked behind two teams who have not won a match because their win was two weeks ago and they have looked terrible since. Playing Marseill and Nice might have something to do with that, but with their only win coming against Nantes, there is not telling. They have given up the most goals in the league.
	18	20	Sochaux Got a draw agaist Paris St.-Germain after a very disppointing start to the season, but their only goal came from the penalty spot. Had they not gotten that call, they would be without a point for the season. They did show some life on Saturday, though, and Michel Flaubert was mad to work for PSG’s point. If they can carry that over into next week and find another goal scorer besides Mevlut Erding, they can still turn this around.
	19	18	Nancy One goal in three matches and their best results being draws against Toulouse and Lille gives them nothing attractive for their resume. Until they can show an ability to score goals, it is hard to take them seriously. Replicating last year’s surprise result is a long way away.
	20	16	Nantes Amongst the teams at the bottom the table, they have done the least to recommend themselves. Part of that is uninspired play. Part of that is the schedule. No matter. Three games was too few to just their coach, and it serves them right that Alain Perrin has no interest in this ship.

FC Nantes finished last season second behind Le Havre in France’s Ligue 2 but seem to have lofty expectations for return engagement in Ligue 1. At least, their owner does. That’s the best explanation as to why coach Michel Der Zakarian was fired today, only three matches into the season. Though they are not being used, there are a couple of better reasons why Der Zakarian could have been fired.

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If you read my EPL preview over at American Soccer Reader, you know I think highly of Middlesbrough’s chances this season. I picked them to finish ninth, and the simulation I wrote saw them as having a outside but meaningful chance at finishing in the top seven. But given a chance to pick Boro when they hosted a team of similar standing (by the prediction) to open the season, I picked the visitor.

That’s because that visitor was Tottenham. Continue Reading »

With the prerequisite Round 1 surprises, the Bundesliga started last weekend. Those few surprises help keep my pick results modest. Still a decent start (not as bad as Ligue 1), with most of the losses coming in matches that featured two teams I did not get to see in the preseason. Continue Reading »

Raymond Domenech’s honeymoon period after being affirmed as manager of the France national team is over with a thud. One day after a 3-2 win over Sweden in which Les Blues finally started incorporating some of their younger talent, one of the players that should be a cornerstone of their next World Cup has quit over selection issues.

Whether Sebastien Frey should as upset about Steve Mandanda starting the Sweden match is questionable, but he is not the first French star to be done with the national team over Domenech. The goalkeeper that was so important to Fiorentina’s Serie A and UEFA Cup runs was not even selected, with Domenech electing to pick Lyon younger Hugo Lloris as Mandanda’s back-up. Frey, who had a strong claim to playing time over Gregory Coupet in Euro 2008, is now done with Domenech and France, telling the team that he will be devoting himself to Fiorentina full time.

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Last week, I combined the Ligue 1 review article with the picks, but with me having time in my post-vacation world to break the rounds’ review into its own article, we can leave the picks to themselves. Below, you will see last week’s predictions along with my choices for Round 3. If the picks for Ligue 1’s third round are no better than those for the second, this article has already been a waste of your time.

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