Will Lyon repeat?
It is the story which will define Le Championnat, one which makes this season much more interesting than last. Until Bordeaux mounted last season’s challenge, it was assumed Lyon would have to stumble before Ligue 1 would be up-for-grabs. But rather than come back to the pack, Lyon only finished with two points less than the previous season. It was Bordeaux that improved by 18 points to push Lyon to the end.
Laurent Blanc’s club, seeing the leaders within their grasp, has acquired some players with designs on closing the four point finishing gap, but do not expect Lyon to acquiesce easily in their quest for an eighth title. The champions were still in control most of last season, permitting a strong run from the runners-up to close a gap that could have been bigger, had post-Champions League disappointment not set in.
If Lyon can maintain their focus, the Ligue 1 table may end up looking a lot like last season’s. Bordeaux has separated from Marseille, who have added firepower to compensate for the Samir Nasri loss. They will form the top part of the table again, with Nancy, St. Etienne and Lille in the mix for the league’s UEFA Cup spots. With the league qualifying six teams for Europe (three for Champions League play of some kind), I like one other team to rise up the table and contest for a continental spot.
Here’s my predicted order of finish. Share yours in the comment section, below.
| Ligue 1 |
| Rank |
Team |
Pts |
| 1 |
Lyon |
81 |
| 2 |
Bordeaux |
78 |
| 3 |
Marseille |
70 |
| 4 |
St. Etienne |
64 |
| 5 |
Lille |
59 |
| 6 |
Nancy |
58 |
| 7 |
Valenciennes |
56 |
| 8 |
Rennes |
55 |
| 9 |
Paris St. Germain |
52 |
| 10 |
Nice |
51 |
| 11 |
Lorient |
51 |
| 12 |
Socheux |
50 |
| 13 |
Caen |
48 |
| 14 |
Le Havre |
45 |
| 15 |
Le Mans |
44 |
| 16 |
Monaco |
43 |
| 17 |
Nantes |
41 |
| 18 |
Auxerre |
38 |
| 19 |
Toulouse |
34 |
| 20 |
Grenoble |
30 |
1. Lyon - They’ve done a good job of getting younger while maintaining their talent level. Last season will have put a scare into them, and they will be more vigilant this season. Still have the most talent and experience in the league.
2. Bordeaux - I expect them to be just as good, if not better, than last season. They return their fearsome strike force of Fernando Cavenaghi, Wendel, and David Bellion. I just do not think it will be good enough to catch a refocused Lyon, however, should some key players from Lyon show their age of Karim Benzema not play up to the standard he’s created, Bordeaux will take the league.
3. Marseille - Have a lot of potential goal scorers but have not done enough to close the 13 point, well-deserved gap between them and Bordeaux. They will have to replace Nasri, departed for Arsenal, but Mathieu Valbuena is ready to step into more playing time, capable of finding all the finishers Marseille has accumulated.
4. St. Etienne - I like the acquisition of Daisuke Matsui from Le Mans, and leading goal scorer Bafetimbi Gomis is only getting better. He is another of France’s bright young stars. Have maintained a side that will against challenge for European football.
5. Lille - Twenty year old Belgian striker Kevin Mirallas, who scored six goals while starting only half the time last season, could step up to provide the scoring threat up top that Lille needs.
6. Nancy - Surprise team last season will stay near the top of the table, but you have to wonder where they are going to get their goals. Yousouff Hadji led the team with seven last season, as they relied more on balance than true threats. Without having brought in anybody to provide that punch, they stand to be caught be a couple of teams that finished below them last season.
7. Valenciennes - Lost their leading scorer Steve Savidan to Caen who they hope to replace with one of Belgian and former Auxerre striker Luigi Pieroni. Even without his contribution, Johan Audel and Grégory Pujol should compensate for Savidan’s loss while leading Valenciennes to a position more in line with their performance, if not results, from last season.
8. Rennes - Finished a sixth last season but lost center back John Mensah to Lyon. They have replaced him with Fulham cast-off Carlos Bocanegra. They will be hoping for continued goal scoring from Jimmy Briand, who they have managed to keep for another season, while leading scorer Mickael Pagis staves off father time.
9. Paris St. Germain - PSG climbs from sixteenth to ninth partly on their acquisitions of Claude Makélélé and Ludovic Guily, partly on my belief in their dedication, but mostly based on other teams not doing enough to hold their places in the table. Sixteenth was also a harsh finish for the Coupe de la Ligue winners who had the same goal differential as twelfth place Monaco. Guillaume Hoarau, who scored 28 goals in Ligue 2 last season, also joins the Parisians.
10. Nice - Lost leading scorer Bakari Koné to Marseille and goaltender Hugo Lloris to Lyon. I am predicting them only three spots lower on the table, but on the pitch, they will take a more noticeable step back from last year’s form.
11. Lorient - Rely heavily on Rafik Saifi for scoring, though their star striker is now 33 years old. They had only two players score more than two league goals from them last season, so they need Saifi to hold-up.
12. Sochaux - Budding Turkish star Mevlut Erdinç should make more appearances this year after scoring 11 goals in 24 starts. The former France U21 will not turn 22 until February.
13. Caen - Lost Youn Gouffran to Bordeaux and replaced him with Valensiennes’s Steve Savidan, acquiring some more age and uncertainty in the progress. That should keep them in the lower-middle of the table.
14. La Havre - Ligue 2 champions will benefit from the clubs in the bottom of Ligue 1 doing little to improve themselves. With a couple of clubs really floundering, they should have no trouble staying up.
15. Le Mans - Finished mid-table last year but lost three major contributors, including leading scorer Tulio de Melo, replacing them with a couple of veteran imports from the Norwegian league. I do not look for them to be in serious relegation trouble this season, but this finish would represent a six spot drop.
16. Monaco - Lost their leading goal scorer, Frederic Piquionne, to Lyon and seem to want to replace him with Freddie Adu. Piquionne’s team leading total was only seven, and while the French game does serve Adu well, I wonder what Monaco’s thinking. The former Champions League finalists could be this season’s PSG, with everybody having them on relegation watch.
17. Nantes - Second place finisher in Ligue 2 last season, Nantes has a number of striking options which should lead them to finding enough goals to stay in Ligue 1. They return to Ligue 1 after being relegated for the first time in 2007 and will save themselves from going back to Ligue 2 by beating out the only other team that has never been relegated
18. Auxerre - Has the worst goal differential of any team staying in Ligue 1 and has done nothing substantial to improve the team. It will be a sad day with Auxerre is sent down. The club, founded in 1905, has never been relegated, having spent nearly thirty years in Ligue 1.
19. Toulouse - After barely avoiding relegation last season, their two leading scorers left the clubs like rats jumping from a ship. It is going to be a long season.
20. Grenoble - Having finished third in Ligue 2 last season, Grenoble is the easy selection to be sent back down. The were a measure behind Nantes last season with no indication the gap is bridged. Even with a couple of returning sides doing little to avoid the drop, it is difficult to see Grenoble climbing to 17th place.