World Football Postulant

I just finished posting my Week 3 review article to American Soccer Reader. Here is a direct link.  I name Player of the Week, Manager of the Week, XI of the Week, talk briefly about how the teams lay giong into the international match break, and rank the tops one through twenty.

Now, I am going to spend some time updating ASR for all the big Premiership news.  There are three main pieces which stick out (off the top of my head):  Dubai, Robinho, Berbatov.  I’m sure I’ll find other news, too.

Tottenham Hotspur many not have been able to prove themselves a big club this summer, having hit the end of the transfer window with few of their many rumored targets hit, but on the home-front they can at least show themselves capable of acting like a big-boy.  That could be the resolution of the Dimitar Berbatov saga:  Tottenham sitting on their best player, putting him on the bench or relegating him to the reserves, and implicitly telling him that nobody does this to Tottenham.

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Contracts may not mean much in the footballing world, but the signing of them can send messages. When David Villa signed his contract with Valencia today, a deal with runs through 2014, the message was clear. Villa will not be moving before September 1.

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I wrote a recap of the particulars for American Soccer Reader.  You can see it here.  The only detail left is how much Tottenham paid for their new striker.  The figures I have seen to this point are £14 million to £16 million with no sources reliable enough to quote.  At this point, it looks like it does not matter.  Roman Pavlyuchenko is moving from Spartak Moscow to Tottenham with a significant ripple effect.

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If you read my EPL preview over at American Soccer Reader, you know I think highly of Middlesbrough’s chances this season. I picked them to finish ninth, and the simulation I wrote saw them as having a outside but meaningful chance at finishing in the top seven. But given a chance to pick Boro when they hosted a team of similar standing (by the prediction) to open the season, I picked the visitor.

That’s because that visitor was Tottenham. Continue Reading »

Two months of the Andrei Arshavin saga will end next weekend when the international transfer window closes, but unless Zenit St. Petersburg shows some new-found willingness to compromise their position, that window may as well be closed now, as it concerns Arshavin.

On the club’s web site, Zenit announced that they will not be selling Arshavin.  They were unable to come to an agreement with Tottenham, who the player and agent had zero’d in on as Arshavin’s best chance of moving this summer.  Wanting two weeks to replace the Russian Player of the Year, the inability to get the deal done today has Zenit convinced not to sell him.

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For a fanbase desperate for some team, any team to unseat one of the Premiership’s Big Four, Tottenham was a beacon of hope.  Over the summer ,the other North London club has been linked with seemingly every wantaway player in Europe, casting hopes and wishes into the minds of those hoping Liverpool could be brought back to the league.  But for all those picking Tottenham to crack the cartel at the top of the table, Saturday at the Riverside proved a rude awakening.

It was a fair result, 2-1, beyond just Middlesbrough outplaying Spurs.  If anything, the 2-0 scoreline posted before Tottenham’s late, resigning goal was more just.  Boro controlled the entire match and truly looked the better team, sending notice to a league fanbase that had overlooked Gareth Southgate’s young squad while swooning over Spurs and Portsmouth.  From the opening lineups, when it was known Dimitar Berbatov would not be playing, when you could make a side-by-side comparison of the teams, you could see how the same Tottenham back line that was so porous last season, Darren Bent as their lead striker, and a couple of unremarkable names in the midfield made for a club not so much different from Southgate’s, who nobody is picking to make the top four.

On the pitch, there were stark differences.  Middlesbrough was able to control the middle of the field, rendering Luka Modric practically invisible.  Whereas Middlesbrough’s defense was efficient in dealing with the few challenges Bent and Giovani Dos Santos provided, Tottenham’s defense showed no improvement over last season.  Middlesbrough scored two goals but had other good opportunities.  It was only poor finishing from Afonso Alves that kept the Brazilian from multiple goals.  Stewart Downing outplayed David Bentley, and David Wheater added to his growing reputation as Middlesbrough showed they may have the best players of the two teams.  The Modric having an off-day and Berbatov on the sidelines for most of the match, Southgate’s stars were shining brighter on Saturday.

This was not just a one goal loss on the road, something that would be forgivable for almost any club in the Premiership.  Tottenham did not play Middlesbrough to within a goal.  Their late tally masks the fact that they were rarely dangerous, and in the second half, when Middlesbrough turned the screws, Spurs had no means of responding.  When Dimitar Berbatov came on the pitch Tottenham’s attack started show the fluidity Juane Ramos wants.  But aside from those twenty minutes, they did not threaten.

That is not to say they won’t.  Switching David Bentley to the left side using his brilliant right foot to put the ball on as opposed to across the net is an inspired choice from Ramos.  Berbatov’s skill makes the team noticeably more dangerous as the speed of Modric and Dos Santos can play off the big target man.  Bent becomes viable when playing off Berbatov.  If Spurs keep the Bulgarian and convince him to play, there attacking problems will be solved.

And they will need to solve those problems if they are to compete.  I’m talking about Middlesbrough here, not Liverpool.  Middlesbrough can be a top ten team, and they played as such on Saturday.  If Alves can finish a bit better and the team (especially the goalies) can learn as the year progresses, Boro will be good.

Tottenham needs to worry more about how they are going to beat the Middlesbroughs of the world than how they are going to execute any Big Four attack plans. With Dimitar Berbatov lost, whether by transfer or by psychology, the top of the table is as far away as it was in May.

Note: This article will be edited for distribution on American Soccer Reader.

Links
Brooding Berbatov confronts club about his ‘dream move’ to United
Middlesbrough 2 Tottenham 1: Berbatov cocktail gives Spurs a bad head
Ramos gives mixed messgaes as Spurs stumble
Southgate delighted with start
Poyet - We must learn
Mido returns to haunt Spurs
Mido returns to haunt toothless Spurs
Middlesbrough 2-1 Tottenham: Mido sinks Spurs
Southgate: We Are A Threat
Poyet Rues Poor Defending
Berba benched as Spurs lose
Mido returns to haunt Spurs

We have been here before, various times this summer, but the extent to which this story is being picked-up this time makes me believe the transfer is now going to happen.  Sources which were previously suspicious in jittery in trying to break the news are now sober in their reports.  Dimitar Berbatov seems destined for Manchester United.  The current Tottenham striker will move to Old Trafford Wednesday or Thursday for a reported £25 million.

It seems United has had their eyes on Berbatov all summer and had been hoping Spurs’ asking price would come down. Now, this close to the start of the season (and the close of the transfer window), they are going to move to finalize the deal, paying slightly more than Liverpool paid for an equally effective Robbie Keane. Both Spurs and United seem to think Berbatov the better player, though Berbatov is more of a fit, need solution for a Red Devil club that has been playing for some time without a true target man.

Despite that need and their injury and availability issues, I doubt Manchester United is making a desperation buy here.  My gut feeling is that Manchester United has been prepared to pay this price all summer and only refrained from doing so in the hope that the number would come down.  With only a couple of weeks left to finalize deals, Alex Ferguson is not waiting any longer.

While it may not make their ideal XI much better, this deal does help United get from the season’s beginning to Cristiano Ronaldo’s return, where the drop-off in goal scoring could cost them the few points they will need to retain their title.  As tight as the Premiership stands to be, even those points contested at the season’s beginning will have a major effect on how the table looks in May.  With a somewhat difficult first two months on the fixture list, the addition of a Berbatov would be a big boost for Ferguson’s club.

It is a great price for Tottenham to get, though it locks them into Darren Bent, who - despite playing incredibly throughout the preseason - is coming off a terrible season.  Potential England call-up rumors aside, I do not see how Juande Ramos can possibly be comfortable with his strike force, should Berbatov leave.  Giovani Dos Santos will slot into the number 10 role and Bent plays high, but I doubt this is the strike force Ramos dreamed of at the summer’s onset.

There are not a lot of good stories about Tottenham getting another striker.  Twenty-five million pounds has a way of changing that, though.  With that kind of cash infusion, Ramos will quickly be able to find out if David Villa is really staying at Valencia or Zenit St. Petersburg is set on keeping Andrei Arshavin.

Of course, the problem with both the Villa and the Arshavin scenarios is that they replace Keane more then Berbatov.  Berbatov is a traditional nine - a target man - and while it is conceivable Ramos feels no need to adhere to that kind of conventional tactic, it begs the question as to why they were willing to go a couple of weeks without Keane, preparing as if they would have a true lead striker, only to have to subtly change preparations with a Berbatov sale.

Tottenham may have a longer view of such a move, acquiring another, somewhat superfluous complementary striker with the idea of completing their long-term roster in either January or next summer.  For this season, they may get Villa or Arshavin (or both) and take a page out of Manchester United’s book and play without a target.  At worst, it would provide symmetry to this deal.

Links
United seal £25 million deal for Spurs star
Berbatov to United in 48 hours - Report
Berbatov on the brink of £28m transfer from Suprs to United
Berbatov on brink of Man Utd move
Spurs losing hope of hanging on to Berbatov

Zenit St. Petersburg star Andrei Arshavin has gone on strike.

Arshavin and his representation have been working overtime to secure his transfer to Tottenham Hotspur, but Zenit is not wavering in their demand of top dollar for their best player. On the contrary, Zenit’s demand seems to be going up, with their near £22 million demand of last month having morphed into a reported £27 million figure now. Tottenham has never gotten close to the £22 million figure, let alone the £27 million one quoted below.  Like Martin O’Neill’s continued pushing of Gareth Barry’s fee, this is doing nothing to foster a deal (which might be exactly the point).

In response, Arshavin has refused to play. The Russian Prince sat on the sidelines as the current league champions bowed out of the Russian Cup with a 1-0 less of Sibir Novosibirsk, a team from outside the Russian Premier League. With Zenit finally pushing out of the cellar and climbing to within shouting distance of first place Rubin Kazan, Arshavin’s strike comes at a critical time in the season. Zenit now sides in seventh pace, just outside of European football qualification, eight points back of the league leaders. With the team’s other scoring threat Pavel Progrebnyak continuing to battle injury concerns, Arashvin’s absence will be felt.

Arshavin’s agent was scheduled for a meeting with the club president today, as he continues to go back and forth between St. Petersburg and London clubs, trying to broker a deal. Zenit’s president, however, canceled the meeting, an apparent reminder to agent, player, and buyer that the club will not be forced to sell. It leaves the sides in a situation out of some kind old, perverse Soviet fairy tale - the player on strike, the owners not talking to the player. Now it is a game of who will blink first, and if the club, which has never been inclined to sell, does not have a change of heart, Arshavin will have to come back to the team before Zenit even considers a sale. Zenit seems hell-bent on not being bulldozed by the player, even if it means compromising their season.

In the interim, Tottenham is forced to use Darren Bent, having already sold Robbie Keane. That looks fine thus far, even though their first real match is still over a week away. They are also unable to see Dimitar Berbatov, to Manchester United or anybody else, not having sufficient players up top. Juande Ramos and Spurs can not be held hostage while Arshavin and Zenit work through this. If they want to be confident in being a top seven team, possibly challenging the top four, it’s time to move on.

If that’s how this is to play out, the only good Arshavin’s strike will do is to end the saga. Unfortunately for him, it will end with him staying in St. Petersburg.  In the words of Arshavin’s agent, commenting after the Zenit president canceled the meeting, the chances of the Russian Prince moving to London now seem “very, very weak.”

Quotes

“This is the Russian way.  Nothing will change because this is the old Soviet Union way. For the Russian sports establishment the desires of a player mean absolutely nothing. They are the big bosses. It is a dictatorship. He is a slave.” -  Dennis Lachter, agent, Andrei Arshavin

Links

Arshavin goes on strike to put Spurs deal in jeopardy

If I had to bet, I would put money on Tottenham being without David Villa come September 1.  Still, there is an awful lot of smoke around these rumors for there not to be fire.  But the sticking points in my mind:  the current club says they’re not selling, and the player and his representation are being coy about it all.  This seems more Juande Ramos trying provide a cash catalyst to the situation.

Perhaps Ramos and Ramon Calderon went to some seminar together in the spring?

Today, new rumors come from reliable sources.  Tottenham is set to offer £32 million for David Villa.  The sale of Dimitar Berbatov would fund the transaction, with the Bulgarian to be moved for £30 million.

That reported chain of events should raise doubts as to the veracity of the rumors.  Who is going to pay £30 million for Berbatov?  The reports make it seem like not only will somebody do it (Barça?), but they have confirmed this to Spurs, who are only waiting to find another striker to finalize the Bulgarian’s signing.  And yet Berbatov still plays in the preseason games, as he did this weekend.  So beyond the fact that Valencia seems ill-disposed to selling their striker, there are problems with this story.

If somebody has confirmed they want to buy Berbatov for £30 million, why wait?  Spurs didn’t wait to sell Robbie Keane to Liverpool, were willing to create a hole in their linep (which, thankfully, Darren Bent has filled nicely), and now Zenit St. Petersburg is holding Ramos over the coals on Andrei Arshavin’s price.

The same rumors that have Spurs making a new, record-setting bid for Villa have them staying in the picture with Arshavin.  It is all very fantastical, but I refuse to doubt anything Spurs-related after they improbably sold Robbie Keane and then decided David Bentley was a good fit.   Just as I may be proven wrong on Bentley, I may be proven wrong on Villa, and the Spain international could be in London by the end of the month.

The move makes sense if Valencia is you think the reports of their debt problems are accurate.  I never know what to trust with those stories because there are so many different ways clubs can elect to report their debt that I always feel like I’m on the end of a marketing campaign.  If Valencia were inclined to see Villa, though, wouldn’t they have done it a month ago, when Villa’s value was sky-high after Euro 2008 and they could spend the next month using the proceeds to procure a replacement?  With their UEFA Cup campaign about to start and a reasonable expectation they will compete for a UEFA Cup (or even Champions League) spot for next season (as well as wanting to defend the Copa del Rey), how does now doing an about face on Villa make sense?

As you can tell by my inane use of questions as writing devices, I don’t think it does.  All this smoke we’re seeing it just that: smoke.  That said, he would fit rather nicely in North London.

Quotes
“David likes London and likes how Spurs play under Ramos. If they present an offer, Valencia will seriously study the subject.” - Jose Luis Tamargo, agent, Villa
“Valencia CF has made no agreement nor are they involved in any negotiations to transfer David Villa and David Jimenez Silva to any club in Spain or abroad.” - Valencia
“It is completely untrue. I have informed both the players and their agents in an official and clear manner that the firm intention of the club is for both of the players to stay with us and see out their contracts.” - Valencia

Links
Tottenham eyeing £60million triple swoop?
Spurs reportedly prep $80M mega-bid for Villa
Spurs set for record breaking swoop
Valencia furious over Villa-Silva sale claims
Valencia determined to keep stars
Valencia want to keep Spanish stars Villa and Silva
Soriano vows to keep stars at Valencia