Frank Ribery has yet to appear for Bayern Munich this season.

In more injury news, Bayern Munich’s Franck Ribery, yet to appear for his club this season, has said he hope to make his return next week against Steaua Bucharest when München open Champions League play.

The German Footballer of the Year has been out all season recovering from an ankle injury suffered while playing for France in Euro 2008.  If he were to return next week, the three month recovery time would be very close to the short-end of the projection made when he had surgery at the beginning of summer.  The most pessimistic of original prognosis had the 25-year-old attacking midfielder out until November.  If Ribery’s hopes come true, he will have returned having missed only three Bundesliga matches and no Champions League play.

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The final set of predictions for the 2008-09 European club season takes me to Italy, where your view on who will win the league will undoubtedly be dependent on what you think of Jose Mourinho.  He has been the big name transaction of the Calcio summer,  A has dominated the Italian media and made himself the face of not just Internazionale but the league.  There may not have been one better move the league could have made to reassert itself on the continent after the bad news of recent seasons.

I am a Mourinho fan and have great respect for everything he’s accomplished.  Show me a real football follower who does not respect what Mourinho has done.  And he and Internazionale are a perfect fit.  It is a club with history and resources, is ready to win now, and will appreciate Mourinho more than he ever seemed to be over the last two years at Stamford Bridge.  Everything is in place for him to succeed, and he better.  This is a club that has won the last three Scudetto.  Their management not only expects a repeat in the league but also challenge for the Champions League.  Anything less than the final four in Europe will bring questions as to whether Mourinho had a successful season.  To his credit, he seems to realize this.

Domestically, there are four teams which critics see as challengers.  There’s Adrian Mutu’s Fiorentina, but the loss of Tomas Ujfalusi and goalie Sebastien Frey coming back to Earth a bit make it unlikely they will improve on a successful 2007-08.  Milan, who finish behind Fiorentina, will have to make up 21 points on Inter despite an aging and injury-prone team.  Roma came within three points last season, but this is another case where questions can be raised as to whether they can replicate an 82 point season, especially if Francesco Totti can never find true health.

That leaves Juventus, who I was biased towards at the start of this exercise.  They have the best set of strikers in the league and could get 50-60 goals from just those four.  They can expect a little better luck with health, and they have the best goalie in the league in Gianluigi Buffon.  People outside Italy seem to forget that last season was their return to Serie A.  This year they will have no issues of adjustment.  More than any of this, though:  this team really wants to win the title.  There is a certain pride thse players have in playing for the Old Lady that’s admirable.

However, when I sat down and looked at the rosters, man-by-who should be playing man, it was just difficult to see Juve making up 13 points on Inter.  In fact, I expect Inter to improve slightly with Mourinho.  Juve will have to make up more than 13 points to take the Scudetto.

Ultimatley, I like Internazionale to win.  Again.  And thanks to a just quick fall-off in quality through the table, I think Inter (and the other top teams) to put up a lot of points.  Last season inter only lost three matches.  I don’t expect that number to increase this season.  They tied ten times.  I do see some of those matches turning into wins.

Amongst the surprise teams of the league, I like Torino to jump into UEFA Cup contention.  Lazio, I like to make the top seven, which would hopefully find them in Europe.  I also like Catania to avoid many of the struggles they had last season and easily avoid relegation battles.

At the other end of the spectrum, I like both Chievo and Lecce to stay up after being promoted from Serie B.  Bologna, I don’t see as fortunate.  Amongst the teams that I see fighting for survival:  Reggina, Palermo, and Genoa.

Other teams I expect to falter a little:  I think Udinese will finish closer to relegation than another UEFA Cup spot.  I also think Fiorentina not only will not challenge for the league, I like them to get passed by Sampdoria, both of them finishing will behind Roma for the last Champions League spot.

Aside from the top six teams in the league, I was not very familiar with the Eredivisie before going the research for these predictions.  As was the case when I forecasted the Bungesliga and the Portuguese Liga, I am somewhat ignorant of Dutch football.  That, however, will not stop me from trying to become a real follower, with this being my first stab.  To the right, you will see my prognostications for the upcoming season, which starts this weekend.

For these predictions, I used the same method I used for all my other previews.  I looked at every position on every team and asked how that player will effect the team’s goals for and goal against.  Once I had that, I was able to project a goals for, goal against ratio, with which I was able to simulate a double-round robin season.  I wrote a script to do this simulation and have used it for every prediction save Ligue 1’s.  For the Eredivisie, I ran the script 10,000 times to minimize the effect of any statistical noise.

And if that doesn’t make football sound boring, nothing will.

When you watch Eredivisie football, the thing which stands out is the wide-out play.  There are more teams playing three forwards in the Dutch league than anywhere else.  In addition, teams play very wide, attacking football.  This leads to a ton of goals.  The league had one team, Ajax, almost break 100 goals last season.  It is an athlete’s league, a scorer’s league, and almost the mirror image of football in Portugal.  You can see why so many players in this league make an easy transition to the Bundesliga.

Ajax added Marco van Basten and retained almost all of their key players.  They are in a great position to unseat four-time champion PSV Eindhoven, who lost Jefferson Farfan in addition to their starting goaltender, Huerelho Gomes.  PSV only finished three points ahead of Ajax last season and had a worse goal differential.  Having retained leading scorer and new captain Klass-Jan Huntelaar, added van Basten and Miralem Sulejmani (who scored 15 goals for Heerenveen last season).  This is the season where PSV - the Porto, Bayern, Lyon of the Eredivisie - slip to an Ajax side partly motivated by missing out on the Champions League thanks to the now discarded post-season playoffs.  As you can see to the right, I don’t think it will be particularly close.

That playoff format, used also in the Dutch second division (Eerste Divisie), is why a team that finished sixth amongst those vying for promotion finds itself in the Eredivisie.  ADO Den Haag won the promotion playoffs and like, FC Twente (who won the Eredivisie playoff to qualify for Champions League qualifying) looked out of their element against Arsenal, ADO Den Haag will look out of their element in the Eredivisie.

In between top and bottom, the team that has done the most to improve itself is AZ, a team that struggled (relatively) to score goals last season but brought in a series of scorers to help move them back into a UEFA Cup qualifying spot.  They should, at least, be competitive.

The one big surprise I have, after I ran the numbers, is Heerenveen.  In my simulations, there were basically as good as PSV.  I thought, in losing one of their three best goal scorers, they would take a step back from their fifth place finish, but as I looked closer a.) their fifth place finish seemed to understate their performance, and b.) other teams were regressing more than them.

But the story of this Eredivisie season will be at the top, where the league’s two storied clubs will against fight it out for the title.  I have Ajax finally breaking through, but as I mentioned at the onset of this post, what do I know?

One of the more exciting days of the European club football season is the day the Champions League group stage is drawn.

The 32 teams that have qualified for the group stage are drawn into eight, four-team groups.  Before that happens, all teams are broken into four pots, labeled A through D, where they are grouped according to a team’s strength (as determined by a formula called a coefficient).  Each of the eight groups can have no more than one team from each pot, no more than one team from a country.  The eight groups end up pretty even.

The draw is fun because you end up with a series of matches which, in addition to being high profile based on the quality of the teams involved, are rare.  In the days before the draw, you start considering the possibilities and potential story lines:  Chelsea and Fiorentina in a group, forcing Adrian Mutu to play the club he owes £14 million; Marseille being slotted with Arsenal months after having sold them Samir Nasri, and potentially getting Bayern Munich in the group, so they would have to face Franck Ribery; Barcelona being slotted with a Zenit St. Petersburg team whose star, Andrei Arshavin, so badly wanted to play at Camp Nou; FC Porto being grouped with Inter Milan and facing Jose Mourinho.

Here’s how the eight groups ended up being drawn, with the clubs listed in order of the group they were drawn from:  A to D.  Continue Reading »

The story coming out of the first week of Portugal’s season could have been the continued excellent of FC Porto or Sporting Club of Portugal, but as they did last year with their turnstile coaching position and curious roster management, the storied Benfica club making themselves into a curiosity is the most interesting headline in the Superliga.

Benfica finished a shocking fourth last season despite having a much better goal differential than third place finishing Vitoria de Guimaraes. This relegated them to the UEFA Cup, which undoubtedly gave them a nice taste in their mouth was they saw Guimares bow out of Champions League before the group stage. Benfica may be right to believe they would have beaten FC Basel.

Benfica is a club that’s been European Champions twice. They’ve been to the final of the Champions League seven times and are part of Portugal’s big three clubs along with Porto and Sporting CP, and in bringing in Pablo Aimar and Jose Antonio Reyes from the Spanish league looked ready to challenge Sporting, if not Porto.

That challenge will have to wait until Benfica can prove able to manage Rio Ave. You know Rio Ave? The club that finished second in the Liga de Honra last season? They, apparently, are capable of competing with Benfica, drawing with the Portuguese giants 1-1 on Sunday. For Benfica, tackling Porto and Sporting CP will have to wait.

In the interim, the other top teams handled their business against opening weekend speed bumps. Sporting Lisbon gave Trofense, last season’s second division champions, a rude introduction to the top tier, defeating them 3-1 in Lisbon. Sporting CP scored their three goals within the first 28 minutes and cruised the rest of the way.

Porto looked to be slightly more bothered in the absence of start Ricardo Quaresma, whose continues to try and recovery from an injury which sidelined him throughout the preseason. For Inter Milan fans this means he will be at the San Siro by the end of the week. If that’s the case, Porto may have shown themselves capable of surviving, with a 2-0 final score belying a lop-sided match. Porto was able to consistent pressure Belenenses goaltender Julio Cesar, who got a rude introduction to Portuguese football, playing his first game after coming over from Brazil’s Botafogo. The 21-year-old will see better days, though if Quaresma stays at Porto, last week’s match may prove to be a blessing. Porto again looks the league’s class.

Whether that class will extend beyond Portugal was the question today as both Porto and Sporting were drawn into their Champions League groups. With both teams in Pot B (the second level), they will be expected to make it into the knock-out stage. Porto faces a tough draw, grouped with Arsenal, Fenerbahce, and Dinamo Kiev. Fenerbahce advances to last season’s Champions League quarterfinals, while Dinamo Kiev destroyed Spartak Moscow in qualifying to get to the group stage. You will see Porto picked anywhere from first to fourth.

Sporting CP was drawn into the thinnest group, with Barcelona being the clear class of a quartet that also includes FC Basel and Shakhtar Donetsk. Though both Basel and Shakhtar proved themselves tough in qualifying, Sporting will not have Porto’s excuse of a tough group should they fail to reach the knock-out phase of the tournament.

Today (Friday), five Portuguese teams will be draw into the UEFA Cup first round. Vitoria de Guimaraes, eliminated from the Champions League by Basel, will be joined by Benfica, Vitoria de Setubal, Maritimo, and Sporting Braga. In theory, Benfica is one of the tournament’s five or six top teams, but does that mean, were they in the UEFA Cup, Rio Ave would also be favorites?

WFP Portuguese Superliga Club Rankings

	Rank	Last Week	Club
	1	N/A	Porto This spot will be theirs until shown they don’t deserve it. It’s just the respect they deserve. Hulk got his first goal.
	2	N/A	Sporting CP Like Porto, started this season where they left off the last.
	3	N/A	Nacional Two goal win on the road to kick off the season gets them an early, lofty rankings.
	4	N/A	Naval Strong showing against Maritimo was a mild surpise, but a second minute goal is often all you need in the Portuguese Liga.
	5	N/A	Vitoria de Setubal Guimaraes my not have shown well in Champions League qualifying, but a point on the road against last season’s third place finisher gets a decent rankings.
	6	N/A	Sporting de Braga Authors of one of the four victories by at least two goals. They will have the chance to show themselves on Monday when they host Sporting CP.
	7	N/A	Vitoria de Guimaraes It my not be fair given these rankings are domestic affairs, but I can’t help but remember their Champions League qualifier against FC Basel when making this list.
	8	N/A	Belenenses They were the sacrifical lambs for Porto on the opening weekend, and while they probably were farther from the champions than the 2-0 score indicated, they won’t be judged too harshly. It was not a match any team would in this league would have been expected to win.
	9	N/A	Estrela da Amadora They got three points at home in a match against two of the lower finishers from last season. It’s the type of win that should help distinguish them at the end of the season, should things go poorly.
	10	N/A	Benfica Made me look absolutely foolish. Just days after I said they could threaten Porto at the top of the league, they draw against the team I predicted to finish last. Nuno Gomes got their goal.
	11	N/A	Rio Ave Congratulations to one of the promoted teams on getting a piont from Benfica.
	12	N/A	Academica Held off the scoreboard in their visit to Amadora.
	13	N/A	Maritimo A disappointing first weekend for last year’s fifth place finisher saw them give a lower rankign team three points. They trailed for 88 minutes of their match.
	14	N/A	Trofense Another of the promoted clubs, were sacrificed to Sporting CP. Is this a Portuguese tradition? To sacrifice the promoted clubs to the Champions League qualifiers on week one? How tribal.
	15	N/A	Leixoes Gave up three goals to Nacional and looks to again be battling relegation. Only the referee bribery scandal saved them last season.
	16	N/A	Pacos de Ferreira Failed to score in their home opener and, like Leixoes, looks destined to struggle to keep their place in the Liga.

The third week picks for Ligue 1 was the first set of predictions that showed some promise. The draws amongst the lower-table clubs were the bulk of my errors, but with correct predictions in half the week’s matches, it was a successful week. With the schedule for Week 4 being a little less contentious, a small winning streak may be on the horizon.

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Now everything makes sense. It took us three weeks, but that Ligue 1 I grew to love last year is back. The top three in the table are Marseille, Lyon and Bordeaux. I exhale in relief.

Okay, so maybe I wasn’t too concerned about the state of Ligue 1 without the typically successful clubs at the top. In fact, I wasn’t phased at all, but I am eager for the start of what looks to be a three team championship race. There yet isn’t sufficient distance between Bordeaux (third, as of now) and the rest of the table, but with the three at the top looking at another relatively easy week this weekend, that distance may be coming.

As for the pretenders from last week, Grenoble never threatened Lyon, losing 2-0 after going down six minutes into the match, and Monaco’s lacking attack could not get three points at him from Caen. This week, Grenoble and Monaco face each other, meaning at last one will have trouble keeping up, while two other teams on the heals of the top three (Nice and Valenciennes) are also matched-up. This might be the week that gap starts to form.

But for all this talk about how the top of the table is shaping up, the match of the week involved two teams who currently rank no higher than tenth. Rennes put in two injury time goes to take three points over Lille, the first win for either club, in one of those matches that leaves a neutral slack jawed. Did that just happen?

With Week 2 done and gone, French clubs shifted focus to the continent, where Marseille finished qualifying for Champions League only to see them slotting into the group that got Atletico Madrid from Pot 4. That meant they would be in the deepest group, joined by Liverpool and PSV Eindhoven, in a quartet that gives them a chance to move on. Lyon and Bordeaux each get tougher groups, and some think Lyon’s to be as deep as Marseille’s.

In UEFA Cup qualifying, Rennes was able to overcome a one goal deficit after their first leg against Norway’s Stabaek. The join Paris St. Germain, Nancy, and St. Etienne in awaiting tomorrow’s UEFA Cup draw for the first round. With none of those four playing that well at the season’s start, they will be hoping to avoid some of the draw’s giants: AC Milan, Schalke 04, Benfica, Valencia, Galatasaray, and Manchester City.

Just kidding about City.

Karim Benzema has already risen to the top of the league in goals, the only player to reach three. Without being the best player in any individual week, he has been the league’s overall best player thus far and continue to raise his international profile. With a goal in France’s friendly last week against Sweden, Benzema already has four total goals this season. This week at St. Etienne, he will have his work cut out, though Les Verts have been allowing a goal a match through three.

And in Ligue 1, the sack race is over. Nantes fired Michel der Zakarian earlier this week after the promoted club found themselves at the bottom of the table after three games. Given the timing, Nantes seems to have had to beat Bordeaux, at Bordeaux, last weekend to keep his job. Clearly, getting the club promoted last season was not enough, and I wish whoever replaces him the best of luck. Your goal, apparently, is not staying up. It’s catching Marseille.

WFP Ligue 1 Club Rankings

	Rank	Last Week	Club
	1	1	Marseille A workmanlike win on the road at Le Havre saw them held under four goals for the first time this season. The team has played two Champions Legaue qualifiers during this opening stretch and will be happy to get Sochaux this week and then the international break. Their reward: a tough but winnable Champions League group.
	2	2	Lyon Popped the Grenoble bobble and assumed their place atop the league. They might also want to Marseille return to “form” a bit, as right now it looks like Claude Puel will have a fight in Le Championnat. That fight has been compounded by a tough Champions League group, getting Bayern Munich, Steaua Bucharest, and Fiorentina.
	3	3	Bordeaux Got back to their winning ways this week following a shock loss the week before to PSG. They got, for them, a horrible Champions League draw, a solid third best team behind Chelsea and AS Roma. Good luck with that, Laurent Blanc.
	4	9	Valenciennes This is will be a team that I’m biased towards all year on the back of a preseason prediction, but a strong home result versus Lorient this weekend justifies my faith. For now.
	5	6	Le Mans There were a series of clubs I was down on coming into the season, and Le Mans was one, but their last two weeks - particularly this week’s win over St. Etienne - has opened my eyes. They have no truly bad results on their resume and have won two in a row. They’ve been strong
	6	4	Caen Another club I was unsure about at season’s start. I’m not as high on them as I am Le Mans, and their ranking here reflects a general uncertainty with those below them.
	7	12	Monaco Have drawn two in a row after beating PSG to open the season. They have only three goals in three matches and lack dynamism in their attack.
	8	7	Paris St. Germain A lot of this ranking is based on their win two weeks ago over Bordeaux, the only loss any of the top three have been given. Their result against Sochaux was disappointing, but when penalty kicks are involved, I give extra consideration.
	9	5	Lorient Only Nancy has scored fewer goals than Lorient, but with a win at Le Mans and a draw versus Lyon, they could be ranked higher. Once they find some goals, I’ll move them up.
	10	13	St. Etienne I can’t shake the feeling that this team should be better. They should be scoring more goals, but they were shut out in each of their road appearances: at Valenviennes, at Le Mans. According to these rankings, that’s a bit of a tough schedule, and having taken care of business in their one home fixture, they get ranked in the middle of the table.
	11	8	Grenoble Lyon made it clear they had no business at the top of the table, but it was good while it lasted. They still have a ways to go to be back in a relegation battle, but for a team that was barely promoted, it’s a smashing start.
	12	10	Rennes This team hass been all over the place. They got that miracle draw in Week 1 against Marseille - the only points the leaders have failed to get - and then lost to Grenoble. They beat Lille this weak, but as they have been in the UEFA Cup, their Ligue 1 performances have been all over the place.
	13	11	Toulouse A 0-0 draw at Nancy could prove a strong result come April and May, and for a team that will struggle to stay up, it’s a great point.
	14	14	Le Havre Good on them to hold Marseille to one goal, the first time this year a team has contained them. The team also drew over 16,000 tot he match, a fine turnout.
	15	17	Nice This is the team with the greatest disparity between actual table ranking and WSP rankings. They have two wins, but they are against Nancy and Auxerre. They have allowed Nancy’s only goal. As of now, I don’t see it.
	16	19	Lille A tough loss to Rennes this week as Stade came back with two goals very late, doing their best Liverpool impressive, to take all the points. They are ranked a couple of spots higher here than they sit in the table, but I feel like I might be being generous.
	17	15	Auxerre Auxerre gets ranked behind two teams who have not won a match because their win was two weeks ago and they have looked terrible since. Playing Marseill and Nice might have something to do with that, but with their only win coming against Nantes, there is not telling. They have given up the most goals in the league.
	18	20	Sochaux Got a draw agaist Paris St.-Germain after a very disppointing start to the season, but their only goal came from the penalty spot. Had they not gotten that call, they would be without a point for the season. They did show some life on Saturday, though, and Michel Flaubert was mad to work for PSG’s point. If they can carry that over into next week and find another goal scorer besides Mevlut Erding, they can still turn this around.
	19	18	Nancy One goal in three matches and their best results being draws against Toulouse and Lille gives them nothing attractive for their resume. Until they can show an ability to score goals, it is hard to take them seriously. Replicating last year’s surprise result is a long way away.
	20	16	Nantes Amongst the teams at the bottom the table, they have done the least to recommend themselves. Part of that is uninspired play. Part of that is the schedule. No matter. Three games was too few to just their coach, and it serves them right that Alain Perrin has no interest in this ship.

It as another week of unspectacular picks for me in the Bundesliga, where a number of ties make it hard for me to get any traction. The highlight, for me, was hitting the Dortmund-Munich game on the nose, though that’s a bit of a disingenuous boast, as I didn’t anticipate Mark van Bommel getting red carded. I probably should have seen that coming, though. It was the easiest prediction of the week.

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After Liverpool’s defeat of Standard Liège, it was announced that Steven Gerrard would undergo surgery Thursday morning to correct a groin problem that has bothered him for the last month. The Reds’ captain decided to play through the pain this weekend against Middlesbrough as well as tonight, though against the Belgian champions he was a none factor and Rafa Benitez probably would have been better served with somebody else in the lineup. That Liverpool does not have somebody to fill that spot may have contributed to the decision to play Gerrard, and thanks to the upcoming break in the club schedule for World Cup qualifiers, Liverpool should only have to go one match without Stevie G.

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Liverpool may be one of the eight teams in the top pool for tomorrow’s Champions League group stage draw, but they were the closest of the thirty-two teams to being out of the tournament after the final round of qualifying finished today.

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