This is not the way Pep Guardiola wants to start for Barcelona.

Barça, who rightfully expect to get the league title back this season, went to newly promoted CD Numancia for what everybody expected to be a smooth opening to the league campaign.  But I suppose we all needed to be reminded that there are very few easy trips in La Liga.  Of the three big European leagues, La Liga had the most quality at the bottom of the table last season, and if CD Numancia showed what we can expect from the promoted side, that statement will remain true this season.

Numancia came away from their return engagement in La Liga with a 1-0 win over one of the league’s two titans.

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Many may not look at Real Madrid visiting Deportivo de la Coruña as a marque match-up, but when you predict the two-time defending champions to drop to third place, any opening match is big one.  That’s why I will be looking intently at their match-up, though there are a couple of other more evenly matched fixtures which should draw attention.

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While Real Madrid has been making transfer headlines all summer, few have noticed that they have done little to improve their team.  In fact, it seems they have taken some steps backwards.  Now I agree Rafael van der Vaart is a great signing, but they’ve lost Wesley Sneijder to injury, have yet to get Fabio Cannavaro back, have an aging core, and are on the verge of losing Robinho.  Beyond that, you can ask if Casillas can play better than he did last year, or is it even reasonable to predict such performance?

Madrid is coming back to the pack.  The question is how much other teams have done to catch-up.  Barcelona has also been in the news all summer, but they made as many meaningful changes than Madrid.  Van der Vaart is going to play immediately and regularly for Real.  Is Alexander Hleb really going to unseat anybody in Barcelona’s lineup?  Doubtful.  Daniel Alves does, however, give them another dimension on the right, and he has a track record in La Liga.  Barça’s main issue is getting the talent they have playing to its potential.  As you can see to the right, I do believe that Pep Guardiola can so it.  At a minimum, he will instill a pride in performance - in the shirt the players are wearing - that will help resolve some of the inconsistencies we saw last season.

With apologies to Villareal, the other major title contender is Atletico Madrid.  They have made major improvements in goal prevention, bringing in Paulo Assuncao and Tomas Ujfalusi.  I love these signings and think Atletico can have on of the better defenses in La Liga.  Their strength and depth in midfield can help control matches against the slightly more talented teams, and the addition of Andre Sinnema Pongol should mitigate the effects of any regression by Diego Forlan.  If only one of them can help carry the load with Kun Aguero, this can be a historical season for the Atleti.

After the top five, I see a huge drop, and although my method ended up with Getafe in sixth and back in Europe, any team between sixth and fifteenth could end up qualifying for the UEFA Cup.  I don’t see much difference between Getafe and, say, Racing, who I’m picking at eleventh.  The things which will distinguish these clubs come May are those which I can not predict.

At the other end of the table, La Liga might have the most uninspiring set of promoted teams of all the league’s I’ve previewed.  This is the first of the six league’s I’ve looked at where I wonder how any of the three will stay up.  But, as I looked at some of the lower-table teams from last year, I did find one candidate that could make a promoted side’s season a success.  Osasuna, who finished seventeenth last season, took some positive steps forward and, as is often the case in these stories, were not as bad as they showed last season.  Recreativo, however, I wonder about.  I don’t see much to recommend them, and the regressions I see put them in a place where they should be worried.  They finished higher than they should have last season, the kind of fortunate you can not bet on from year-to-year.

One team everybody will be looking at after this summer’s European Chmapionships is Valencia.  The Davids (Villa and Silva) will continue to make the team dangerous, but as was the case last season, they will still have problems keeping the ball out of their own net.  Until they prove they can do that from game-to-game, they will continue to be a dangerous but inconsistent team, capable of winning shootouts while getting into too many.

In the end, I see this as the season Barcelona regains the crown.  I think they have done enough to mitigate their inconsistencies at the back to become the team that is most ready to take advantage of Real Madrid’s turn to mortality.  Guardiola will be hailed as a savior, and Joan Laporta may be vindicated.  Meanwhile, if these results come true, we may be left wondering who will replace Bernd Schuster and Ramon Calderon at the Santiago Bernabeu.

Tottenham Hotspur many not have been able to prove themselves a big club this summer, having hit the end of the transfer window with few of their many rumored targets hit, but on the home-front they can at least show themselves capable of acting like a big-boy.  That could be the resolution of the Dimitar Berbatov saga:  Tottenham sitting on their best player, putting him on the bench or relegating him to the reserves, and implicitly telling him that nobody does this to Tottenham.

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One of the more exciting days of the European club football season is the day the Champions League group stage is drawn.

The 32 teams that have qualified for the group stage are drawn into eight, four-team groups.  Before that happens, all teams are broken into four pots, labeled A through D, where they are grouped according to a team’s strength (as determined by a formula called a coefficient).  Each of the eight groups can have no more than one team from each pot, no more than one team from a country.  The eight groups end up pretty even.

The draw is fun because you end up with a series of matches which, in addition to being high profile based on the quality of the teams involved, are rare.  In the days before the draw, you start considering the possibilities and potential story lines:  Chelsea and Fiorentina in a group, forcing Adrian Mutu to play the club he owes £14 million; Marseille being slotted with Arsenal months after having sold them Samir Nasri, and potentially getting Bayern Munich in the group, so they would have to face Franck Ribery; Barcelona being slotted with a Zenit St. Petersburg team whose star, Andrei Arshavin, so badly wanted to play at Camp Nou; FC Porto being grouped with Inter Milan and facing Jose Mourinho.

Here’s how the eight groups ended up being drawn, with the clubs listed in order of the group they were drawn from:  A to D.  Continue Reading »

The story coming out of the first week of Portugal’s season could have been the continued excellent of FC Porto or Sporting Club of Portugal, but as they did last year with their turnstile coaching position and curious roster management, the storied Benfica club making themselves into a curiosity is the most interesting headline in the Superliga.

Benfica finished a shocking fourth last season despite having a much better goal differential than third place finishing Vitoria de Guimaraes. This relegated them to the UEFA Cup, which undoubtedly gave them a nice taste in their mouth was they saw Guimares bow out of Champions League before the group stage. Benfica may be right to believe they would have beaten FC Basel.

Benfica is a club that’s been European Champions twice. They’ve been to the final of the Champions League seven times and are part of Portugal’s big three clubs along with Porto and Sporting CP, and in bringing in Pablo Aimar and Jose Antonio Reyes from the Spanish league looked ready to challenge Sporting, if not Porto.

That challenge will have to wait until Benfica can prove able to manage Rio Ave. You know Rio Ave? The club that finished second in the Liga de Honra last season? They, apparently, are capable of competing with Benfica, drawing with the Portuguese giants 1-1 on Sunday. For Benfica, tackling Porto and Sporting CP will have to wait.

In the interim, the other top teams handled their business against opening weekend speed bumps. Sporting Lisbon gave Trofense, last season’s second division champions, a rude introduction to the top tier, defeating them 3-1 in Lisbon. Sporting CP scored their three goals within the first 28 minutes and cruised the rest of the way.

Porto looked to be slightly more bothered in the absence of start Ricardo Quaresma, whose continues to try and recovery from an injury which sidelined him throughout the preseason. For Inter Milan fans this means he will be at the San Siro by the end of the week. If that’s the case, Porto may have shown themselves capable of surviving, with a 2-0 final score belying a lop-sided match. Porto was able to consistent pressure Belenenses goaltender Julio Cesar, who got a rude introduction to Portuguese football, playing his first game after coming over from Brazil’s Botafogo. The 21-year-old will see better days, though if Quaresma stays at Porto, last week’s match may prove to be a blessing. Porto again looks the league’s class.

Whether that class will extend beyond Portugal was the question today as both Porto and Sporting were drawn into their Champions League groups. With both teams in Pot B (the second level), they will be expected to make it into the knock-out stage. Porto faces a tough draw, grouped with Arsenal, Fenerbahce, and Dinamo Kiev. Fenerbahce advances to last season’s Champions League quarterfinals, while Dinamo Kiev destroyed Spartak Moscow in qualifying to get to the group stage. You will see Porto picked anywhere from first to fourth.

Sporting CP was drawn into the thinnest group, with Barcelona being the clear class of a quartet that also includes FC Basel and Shakhtar Donetsk. Though both Basel and Shakhtar proved themselves tough in qualifying, Sporting will not have Porto’s excuse of a tough group should they fail to reach the knock-out phase of the tournament.

Today (Friday), five Portuguese teams will be draw into the UEFA Cup first round. Vitoria de Guimaraes, eliminated from the Champions League by Basel, will be joined by Benfica, Vitoria de Setubal, Maritimo, and Sporting Braga. In theory, Benfica is one of the tournament’s five or six top teams, but does that mean, were they in the UEFA Cup, Rio Ave would also be favorites?

WFP Portuguese Superliga Club Rankings

	Rank	Last Week	Club
	1	N/A	Porto This spot will be theirs until shown they don’t deserve it. It’s just the respect they deserve. Hulk got his first goal.
	2	N/A	Sporting CP Like Porto, started this season where they left off the last.
	3	N/A	Nacional Two goal win on the road to kick off the season gets them an early, lofty rankings.
	4	N/A	Naval Strong showing against Maritimo was a mild surpise, but a second minute goal is often all you need in the Portuguese Liga.
	5	N/A	Vitoria de Setubal Guimaraes my not have shown well in Champions League qualifying, but a point on the road against last season’s third place finisher gets a decent rankings.
	6	N/A	Sporting de Braga Authors of one of the four victories by at least two goals. They will have the chance to show themselves on Monday when they host Sporting CP.
	7	N/A	Vitoria de Guimaraes It my not be fair given these rankings are domestic affairs, but I can’t help but remember their Champions League qualifier against FC Basel when making this list.
	8	N/A	Belenenses They were the sacrifical lambs for Porto on the opening weekend, and while they probably were farther from the champions than the 2-0 score indicated, they won’t be judged too harshly. It was not a match any team would in this league would have been expected to win.
	9	N/A	Estrela da Amadora They got three points at home in a match against two of the lower finishers from last season. It’s the type of win that should help distinguish them at the end of the season, should things go poorly.
	10	N/A	Benfica Made me look absolutely foolish. Just days after I said they could threaten Porto at the top of the league, they draw against the team I predicted to finish last. Nuno Gomes got their goal.
	11	N/A	Rio Ave Congratulations to one of the promoted teams on getting a piont from Benfica.
	12	N/A	Academica Held off the scoreboard in their visit to Amadora.
	13	N/A	Maritimo A disappointing first weekend for last year’s fifth place finisher saw them give a lower rankign team three points. They trailed for 88 minutes of their match.
	14	N/A	Trofense Another of the promoted clubs, were sacrificed to Sporting CP. Is this a Portuguese tradition? To sacrifice the promoted clubs to the Champions League qualifiers on week one? How tribal.
	15	N/A	Leixoes Gave up three goals to Nacional and looks to again be battling relegation. Only the referee bribery scandal saved them last season.
	16	N/A	Pacos de Ferreira Failed to score in their home opener and, like Leixoes, looks destined to struggle to keep their place in the Liga.

This summer’s rumors that Samuel Eto’o might be moving to Uzbekistan might have been more than tabloid creativity, because today’s confirmed move of Rivaldo from AEK Athens to Uzbekistani side Bunyodkor proves that the Uzbek club was big game hunting.  Rivaldo may have been off the mainstream footballing radar long enough to marginalize this move, but for the 36-year-old former Barcelona star, it is one huge payday more than most would get.  He is a name that puts Bunyodkor into the news, if only momentarily.

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Schalke 04 exhibited a new, powerful approach during their 3-0 victory over Hannover on Saturday.

Bundesliga Standings Rank Club GP PTS DIFF 1 Hoffenheim 1 3 3 2 Schalke 1 3 3 3 Stuttgart 1 3 2 4 Hertha Berlin 1 3 2 5 Borussia Dortmund 1 3 1 6 Wolfsburg 1 3 1 7 Karlsruhe 1 3 1 8 Arminia Bielefeld 1 1 0 9 Bayern Munich 1 1 0 10 Hamburger SV 1 1 0 11 Werder Bremen 1 1 0 12 Bayer Leverkusen 1 0 -1 13 1. FC Koln 1 0 -1 14 VfL Bochum 1 0 -1 15 Borussia M’gladbach 1 0 -2 16 Frankfurt 1 0 -2 17 Energie Cottbus 1 0 -3 18 Hannover 1 0 -3 Results August 15, 2008 Bayern Munich 2 2 Hamburg SV August 16, 2008 Bayer Leverkusen 2 3 Borussia Dortmund Arminia Bielefeld 2 2 Werder Bremen Karlsruhe 1 0 VfL Bochum Schalke 3 0 Hannover Energie Cottbus 0 3 Hoffenheim Wolfsburg 2 1 Koln August 17, 2008 Borussia M’gladbach 1 3 Stuttgart Frankfurt 0 2 Hertha Berlin Next Week Home Away August 22, 2008 Hannover Energie Cottbus August 23, 2008 Hoffenheim Borussia M’gladbach Stuttgart Bayer Leverkusen Hamburger SV Karlsruhe Borussia Dortmund Bayern Munich Werder Bremen Schalke 04 Hertha Berlin Arminia Bielefeld August 24, 2008 1. FC Koln Frankfurt VfL Bochum Wolfsburg

When you stack their lineups against each other, Bayern Munich’s seems better, but it is surprising how much talent Schalke has. Announcing it to Europe in their Champions League challenge to Barcelona last season, Schalke is on the verge of transcending the perception of plucky, over-achieving club to league title contender. In round one of the Bundesliga campaign, they were the league’s best team.

Their 3-0 victory over Hannover did not do them justice.  Playing without high-profile summer acquisitions Jefferson Farfán (winger/forward from PSV Eindhoven) and Orlando Engelaar (holding midfielder from FC Twente) - both of whom were hurt in the middle of the week during the club’s impressive Champions League victory over Atlético Madrid - Schalke still exhibited the firepower that should make Bayern, who could have trouble with Farfán and Kevin Kurayni working together, scared.

Bayern limped to a tie against visiting Hamburg without Luca Toni, Franck Ribery and Martin Demichelis.  In round two, they play at a Borussia Dortmund team that confidently put three goals on Bayer Leverkusen in opening their season with a win.  If Bayern does not get healthy for their second match, they could find themselves four or five points behind a rolling Schalke 04 team that plays at a Diego-less Werder Bremen.

Four or five points may not sound like much, but in a Bundesliga that looks a little top heavy, the elite teams may face fewer teams capable of stealing points.  With four fewer matches in the Bundesliga season (compared to the big three leagues), a four or five point gifted Schalke now could be the type of thing Jurgen Klinsmann rues at season’s send.  And if there’s any club that knows about elite teams piling up points in the Bundesliga, it’s Bayern.

Werder Bremen was a near-elite last season (there was only one true elite last season), but without Diego they are a completely different team.  There may be no single player more important to his club than Diego, who is in Beijing for the Olympics.  Seeing them struggle to tie Arminia Beilefeld this weekend, Bremen’s desire to keep the Brazilian playmaker out of the Olympics suddenly made sense.  They weren’t involved in Champions League qualifying like Schalke or Barcelona, but even one match without Diego is a huge loss for this club, whose whole style of play is predicated on the young star’s ability to distribute.

Markus Rosenburg’s two surgical strikes helped Bremen get a point from a Bielefeld side that used the visitor’s wide-open style of play to their advantage.  Bremen is unlikely to alter their style for their match against Schalke, so expect Ivan Ratikic and company to have a big day.

In addition to Round 2’s Dortmund-Bayern, Bremen-Schalke headliners, Stuttgart hosts Leverkusen in another potentially defining match.  Stuttgart efficiently dealt with a Moenchengladbach team that, while having chances, lacked the firepower to play with Thomas Hitzlsperger and Mario Gomez.  Now Stuttgart hosts Bayer with a chance for a six point start.  If they get their win, Bayer will have gone without a point in their first two matches, an early hole for a team that has European aspirations.

There was bad news on the injury front from Round 1’s action.  Dortmund’s Dede, who gave Leverkusen so much trouble on Saturday, suffered a major knee injury and should be lost until spring.  And although Schalke has looked the league’s best team, their depth will take a major hit of midfielder Jermaine Jones, who missed almost all of last season with injuries, is out for more than just Wednesday’s Germany friendly.  Jones is doubtful for Joachim Low’s team.   The German-American midfielder is proving to be a vital cog in Schalke’s attack, running off of Kurayni and onto Farfán’s crosses, but any injury scare is twice as frightening for Jones, given his recent injury history.

World Football Postulant Bundesliga Rankings

As their result was injury related, there’s only so much I’m willing to drop Bayern, though they have looked poor all preseason. Likewise, I can only drop Werder so far, seeing as Diego is in Beijing.

With so many clubs who should finish in the top half of the table playing each other this weekend, a lot of teams have three points without being very high in my first rankings set. Those clubs have thirty-three more rounds to show me their value.

And just as was the case with the Ligue 1 rankings, this early in the season, the whole endeavor becomes worthless pretty quickly. We just need to have fun with it.

1. Schalke 04
2. Bayern Munich
3. Hamburger SV
4. Borussia Dortmund
5. Werder Bremen
6. Bayer Leverkusen
7. Stuttgart
8. Hertha Berlin
9. Arminia Bielefeld
10. Hoffenheim
11. Hannover
12. Karlsruhe
13. VfL Wolfsburg
14. Borussia M’gladbach
15. VfL Bochum
16. Koln
17. Frankfurt
18. Energie Cottbus

The Court of Arbitration for Sport, to which Barcelona, Werder Bremen, and Schalke had appealed FIFA’s ruling compelling the release of U23-eligible players for the Olympics, has sided with the clubs, ruling teams are not required to release their players for participation in the Games.  The CAS said that clubs have no legal obligation to release the players since the Games do not fall within the agreed to International Match Calendar.

The CAS did, however, encourage all parties to continue working towards an amicable solution.  Shortly after the ruling, both Werder Bremen and Schalke granted their players - Diego and Rafinha, respectively - permission to play.  Barcelona has not said whether they intend to follow through on their previous plans to call Lionel Messi back from Beijing.  Argentine coach Sergio Batista has said he anticipates Messi will stay with the team after joining them late last week.

Though it ruled in the clubs favor, the CAS said it will not mandate non-released players be banned from playing in the games.  The court said that their ruling does not effect the eligibility of any players who have already been entered by their national sides.  That interpretation puts the burden for upholding this ruling not on the International Olympic Committee, FIFA, or the country’s federation.  The burden falls upon the players, who would be in breach of contract should they defy their clubs in the face of the CAS ruling.  With Diego and Rafinha having now received permission to play, the only footballer in danger of breaching contract is Messi.

Argentina opens their Olympic tournament tomorrow against the Côte d’Ivoire.  Likewise, Brazil plays tomorrow, against Belgium.  Barcelona wants Messi back for their Wednesday Champions League qualifying match with Wisla Krakow.  Schalke will take on Atlético Madrid without Rafinha.

Barcelona had previously agreed to let Messi join Argentina should Barça have a comfortable lead after the first leg of their qualifying tie.  That compromise solution was offered before the CAS ruling and would have seen Messi join Argentina for the medal round.  It is unclear whether Barcelona would be willing to grant such a release in light of the CAS’s decision.

While Messi’s Olympic hopes remain in the balance, his gold medal dreams have not been the biggest loser of the saga’s denouement; rather, it is the sport’s governing body that has taken the biggest hit.

In attempting to flex his organization’s muscle and force through a U23-policy for the Olympics that defied his own organization’s International Match Calendar, FIFA president Sepp Blatter unwittingly walked into a club-versus-country fight, misjudging his adversary in the process.  All along, it was apparently that FIFA had overreached it power (and the tacit agreement it held with clubs) when it compelled player releases for a tournament that was not taking place in a release period.  It should not have been a surprise that clubs fought the ruling, nor should FIFA have been caught off guard that the CAS upheld a club view that relied on agreed-to timelines over FIFA’s logic of custom and spirit.  While it is disappointing that the Olympics have fallen so far in esteem that individual football clubs feel justified in withholding players from the tournament, the regulations backed club claims.

There was always a chance that the CAS would rule with FIFA and uphold tradition, but FIFA should have known the clubs would balk.  The European Club Association had been itching for a battle ever since it was late showing up to 6+5’s funeral.  The ECA was going to fight to the end, no matter what.  More than for questioning the Olympic ideal or maintaining control over a few players, the ECA saw this issue as one that spoke to the heart of who controls the footballing world.  To the ECA, the clubs have control.  In the fight to affirm that control, a fight the ECA was formed to win, the clubs have won Round 1.

Perhaps Blatter and the similarly inclined UEFA president Michel Platini will tread lightly next time they wish to butt heads with the clubs, seeing that this first battle was never about the players.  Werder Bremen and Schalke’s easy about-faces on Diego and Rafinha showed that.  It was about Blatter overstepping.  The next battle could be about a Platini-pushed debt-plan or one of Blatter’s club-controlling player restrictions.  The next battle could also be waged for Platini or Blatter’s jobs, with the clubs exerting pressure on their home federations to start looking out for the local interests in addition to contemplating which nation gets a major tournament.

The CAS’s ruling not only rebuffed Blatter and FIFA on the Olympics, it rebuffed the whole organization and marginalized it power by backing the clubs.  The clubs now know they have a track to follow in restraining FIFA.  That Blatter would ever let this battle come to this point was a huge tactical error.  Now FIFA’s lack of power is evident, splashed across every football site in the world.  Before it tripped into this fight,  FIFA’s impotence was a topic for message board conversation and football theorists with excessive time on their hands.  Had Blatter not engaged in this beguiling act of hubris and stuck to the letter of the law - or, better yet, worked with and not over the clubs - FIFA would today be stronger for having brokered a solution.

But today they are weaker, their most dangerous adversary is stronger, and the organization is left to fire verbal salvos referencing spirit and custom.  Even in that vein they have ceded the high road to Werder and Schalke, who have magnanimously released their players.  FIFA, in contrast, remains petulant.

Quotes
“The Court of Arbitration for Sport (CAS) has upheld the appeals filed by FC Schalke 04, SV Werder Bremen and FC Barcelona against the decision issued on 30 July 2008 by the Single Judge of the Fifa’s Players’ Status Committee that consequently has been set aside in its entirety.” - CAS
“The Olympic Football Tournament Beijing 2008 is not included in the Co-ordinated Match Calendar and there is no specific decision of the Fifa Executive Committee establishing the obligation for the clubs to release players under 23 for this tournament.” - CAS
“The requirements to justify a legal obligation of clubs to release their players for the Football Tournament Beijing 2008 on the basis of customary law are not met.” - CAS
“I’m calm and confident about this because I have spoken with the player and know what [Messi] is thinking. The player is going to make it clear to Barcelona that he wants to stay here.” - Batista
“In view of FIFA’s recommendation made to the clubs to release their players as well as of the Olympic spirit, the CAS call upon the goodwill and good sense of FIFA and the clubs to find a reasonable solution with regard to players who wish to represent their country in the Olympic Games.” - CAS
“We are confident and hopeful that [Messi] will remain here with the team for the whole tournament.” - Batista
“Fifa is surprised and disappointed by this decision, but we respect it.” - Blatter
“I regret that the CAS has not taken the Olympic spirit into consideration.” -  Blatter
“The Olympic Football Tournaments are a unique opportunity for a player as they are high-level competitions that give everyone involved - most notably young players - the chance to gain international experience that will stand them in good stead for the future.  It stands to reason, therefore, that it is not only the player and his national team who can benefit from such an experience, but also his club.” - Blatter
“I do not want to go into the legal side of all this, but I do know that [Messi] will be playing with us for the entire championship.” - Batista
“Theoretically the clubs could ask their players to go back to Europe because they would be entitled to do so.  And if the players do not come back there could be a case of a breach of contract.” - Matthieu Reeb, secretary, CAS
“It is now the moment for everyone to sit at the table and find a reasonable solution.  Of course, this could affect the tournament and it’s in the interest of nobody to destroy what could be an extraordinary tournament this year. But this is a matter for clubs, FIFA and the players to decide.” - Reeb
“We could have done with our strongest squad for these matches. We firmly believe, however, that unfortunately there is absolutely no point in bringing Rafinha back one day before our opening game.” - Andreas Muller, general manager, Schalke
“All the frustration and the huge disappointment he would feel, coupled with the exertions of travelling, would not in our opinion have put him in a position to play to the best of his ability.” - Muller

Links
Court blocks Messi from playing
Clubs win Olympic appeal
Fifa disappointed with CAS decision
FIFA disappointed by CAS decision
Messi wants to stay with Argentina - Batista
Clubs win appeal; Messi wants to play
Barcelona to decide Messi fate
German clubs release players for Olympics
Clubs U-Turn Over Olympic Brazilians
Blatter ‘Surprised & Disappointed’
Olympics: CAS steps in to stop players heading to Beijing
Trio wins Olympics appeal
European clubs win Olympic appeal

If I had to bet, I would put money on Tottenham being without David Villa come September 1.  Still, there is an awful lot of smoke around these rumors for there not to be fire.  But the sticking points in my mind:  the current club says they’re not selling, and the player and his representation are being coy about it all.  This seems more Juande Ramos trying provide a cash catalyst to the situation.

Perhaps Ramos and Ramon Calderon went to some seminar together in the spring?

Today, new rumors come from reliable sources.  Tottenham is set to offer £32 million for David Villa.  The sale of Dimitar Berbatov would fund the transaction, with the Bulgarian to be moved for £30 million.

That reported chain of events should raise doubts as to the veracity of the rumors.  Who is going to pay £30 million for Berbatov?  The reports make it seem like not only will somebody do it (Barça?), but they have confirmed this to Spurs, who are only waiting to find another striker to finalize the Bulgarian’s signing.  And yet Berbatov still plays in the preseason games, as he did this weekend.  So beyond the fact that Valencia seems ill-disposed to selling their striker, there are problems with this story.

If somebody has confirmed they want to buy Berbatov for £30 million, why wait?  Spurs didn’t wait to sell Robbie Keane to Liverpool, were willing to create a hole in their linep (which, thankfully, Darren Bent has filled nicely), and now Zenit St. Petersburg is holding Ramos over the coals on Andrei Arshavin’s price.

The same rumors that have Spurs making a new, record-setting bid for Villa have them staying in the picture with Arshavin.  It is all very fantastical, but I refuse to doubt anything Spurs-related after they improbably sold Robbie Keane and then decided David Bentley was a good fit.   Just as I may be proven wrong on Bentley, I may be proven wrong on Villa, and the Spain international could be in London by the end of the month.

The move makes sense if Valencia is you think the reports of their debt problems are accurate.  I never know what to trust with those stories because there are so many different ways clubs can elect to report their debt that I always feel like I’m on the end of a marketing campaign.  If Valencia were inclined to see Villa, though, wouldn’t they have done it a month ago, when Villa’s value was sky-high after Euro 2008 and they could spend the next month using the proceeds to procure a replacement?  With their UEFA Cup campaign about to start and a reasonable expectation they will compete for a UEFA Cup (or even Champions League) spot for next season (as well as wanting to defend the Copa del Rey), how does now doing an about face on Villa make sense?

As you can tell by my inane use of questions as writing devices, I don’t think it does.  All this smoke we’re seeing it just that: smoke.  That said, he would fit rather nicely in North London.

Quotes
“David likes London and likes how Spurs play under Ramos. If they present an offer, Valencia will seriously study the subject.” - Jose Luis Tamargo, agent, Villa
“Valencia CF has made no agreement nor are they involved in any negotiations to transfer David Villa and David Jimenez Silva to any club in Spain or abroad.” - Valencia
“It is completely untrue. I have informed both the players and their agents in an official and clear manner that the firm intention of the club is for both of the players to stay with us and see out their contracts.” - Valencia

Links
Tottenham eyeing £60million triple swoop?
Spurs reportedly prep $80M mega-bid for Villa
Spurs set for record breaking swoop
Valencia furious over Villa-Silva sale claims
Valencia determined to keep stars
Valencia want to keep Spanish stars Villa and Silva
Soriano vows to keep stars at Valencia