World Football Postulant

One of the more exciting days of the European club football season is the day the Champions League group stage is drawn.

The 32 teams that have qualified for the group stage are drawn into eight, four-team groups.  Before that happens, all teams are broken into four pots, labeled A through D, where they are grouped according to a team’s strength (as determined by a formula called a coefficient).  Each of the eight groups can have no more than one team from each pot, no more than one team from a country.  The eight groups end up pretty even.

The draw is fun because you end up with a series of matches which, in addition to being high profile based on the quality of the teams involved, are rare.  In the days before the draw, you start considering the possibilities and potential story lines:  Chelsea and Fiorentina in a group, forcing Adrian Mutu to play the club he owes £14 million; Marseille being slotted with Arsenal months after having sold them Samir Nasri, and potentially getting Bayern Munich in the group, so they would have to face Franck Ribery; Barcelona being slotted with a Zenit St. Petersburg team whose star, Andrei Arshavin, so badly wanted to play at Camp Nou; FC Porto being grouped with Inter Milan and facing Jose Mourinho.

Here’s how the eight groups ended up being drawn, with the clubs listed in order of the group they were drawn from:  A to D.  Continue Reading »

Contracts may not mean much in the footballing world, but the signing of them can send messages. When David Villa signed his contract with Valencia today, a deal with runs through 2014, the message was clear. Villa will not be moving before September 1.

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I wrote a recap of the particulars for American Soccer Reader.  You can see it here.  The only detail left is how much Tottenham paid for their new striker.  The figures I have seen to this point are £14 million to £16 million with no sources reliable enough to quote.  At this point, it looks like it does not matter.  Roman Pavlyuchenko is moving from Spartak Moscow to Tottenham with a significant ripple effect.

Continue Reading »

Two months of the Andrei Arshavin saga will end next weekend when the international transfer window closes, but unless Zenit St. Petersburg shows some new-found willingness to compromise their position, that window may as well be closed now, as it concerns Arshavin.

On the club’s web site, Zenit announced that they will not be selling Arshavin.  They were unable to come to an agreement with Tottenham, who the player and agent had zero’d in on as Arshavin’s best chance of moving this summer.  Wanting two weeks to replace the Russian Player of the Year, the inability to get the deal done today has Zenit convinced not to sell him.

Continue Reading »

We have been here before, various times this summer, but the extent to which this story is being picked-up this time makes me believe the transfer is now going to happen.  Sources which were previously suspicious in jittery in trying to break the news are now sober in their reports.  Dimitar Berbatov seems destined for Manchester United.  The current Tottenham striker will move to Old Trafford Wednesday or Thursday for a reported £25 million.

It seems United has had their eyes on Berbatov all summer and had been hoping Spurs’ asking price would come down. Now, this close to the start of the season (and the close of the transfer window), they are going to move to finalize the deal, paying slightly more than Liverpool paid for an equally effective Robbie Keane. Both Spurs and United seem to think Berbatov the better player, though Berbatov is more of a fit, need solution for a Red Devil club that has been playing for some time without a true target man.

Despite that need and their injury and availability issues, I doubt Manchester United is making a desperation buy here.  My gut feeling is that Manchester United has been prepared to pay this price all summer and only refrained from doing so in the hope that the number would come down.  With only a couple of weeks left to finalize deals, Alex Ferguson is not waiting any longer.

While it may not make their ideal XI much better, this deal does help United get from the season’s beginning to Cristiano Ronaldo’s return, where the drop-off in goal scoring could cost them the few points they will need to retain their title.  As tight as the Premiership stands to be, even those points contested at the season’s beginning will have a major effect on how the table looks in May.  With a somewhat difficult first two months on the fixture list, the addition of a Berbatov would be a big boost for Ferguson’s club.

It is a great price for Tottenham to get, though it locks them into Darren Bent, who - despite playing incredibly throughout the preseason - is coming off a terrible season.  Potential England call-up rumors aside, I do not see how Juande Ramos can possibly be comfortable with his strike force, should Berbatov leave.  Giovani Dos Santos will slot into the number 10 role and Bent plays high, but I doubt this is the strike force Ramos dreamed of at the summer’s onset.

There are not a lot of good stories about Tottenham getting another striker.  Twenty-five million pounds has a way of changing that, though.  With that kind of cash infusion, Ramos will quickly be able to find out if David Villa is really staying at Valencia or Zenit St. Petersburg is set on keeping Andrei Arshavin.

Of course, the problem with both the Villa and the Arshavin scenarios is that they replace Keane more then Berbatov.  Berbatov is a traditional nine - a target man - and while it is conceivable Ramos feels no need to adhere to that kind of conventional tactic, it begs the question as to why they were willing to go a couple of weeks without Keane, preparing as if they would have a true lead striker, only to have to subtly change preparations with a Berbatov sale.

Tottenham may have a longer view of such a move, acquiring another, somewhat superfluous complementary striker with the idea of completing their long-term roster in either January or next summer.  For this season, they may get Villa or Arshavin (or both) and take a page out of Manchester United’s book and play without a target.  At worst, it would provide symmetry to this deal.

Links
United seal £25 million deal for Spurs star
Berbatov to United in 48 hours - Report
Berbatov on the brink of £28m transfer from Suprs to United
Berbatov on brink of Man Utd move
Spurs losing hope of hanging on to Berbatov

Zenit St. Petersburg star Andrei Arshavin has gone on strike.

Arshavin and his representation have been working overtime to secure his transfer to Tottenham Hotspur, but Zenit is not wavering in their demand of top dollar for their best player. On the contrary, Zenit’s demand seems to be going up, with their near £22 million demand of last month having morphed into a reported £27 million figure now. Tottenham has never gotten close to the £22 million figure, let alone the £27 million one quoted below.  Like Martin O’Neill’s continued pushing of Gareth Barry’s fee, this is doing nothing to foster a deal (which might be exactly the point).

In response, Arshavin has refused to play. The Russian Prince sat on the sidelines as the current league champions bowed out of the Russian Cup with a 1-0 less of Sibir Novosibirsk, a team from outside the Russian Premier League. With Zenit finally pushing out of the cellar and climbing to within shouting distance of first place Rubin Kazan, Arshavin’s strike comes at a critical time in the season. Zenit now sides in seventh pace, just outside of European football qualification, eight points back of the league leaders. With the team’s other scoring threat Pavel Progrebnyak continuing to battle injury concerns, Arashvin’s absence will be felt.

Arshavin’s agent was scheduled for a meeting with the club president today, as he continues to go back and forth between St. Petersburg and London clubs, trying to broker a deal. Zenit’s president, however, canceled the meeting, an apparent reminder to agent, player, and buyer that the club will not be forced to sell. It leaves the sides in a situation out of some kind old, perverse Soviet fairy tale - the player on strike, the owners not talking to the player. Now it is a game of who will blink first, and if the club, which has never been inclined to sell, does not have a change of heart, Arshavin will have to come back to the team before Zenit even considers a sale. Zenit seems hell-bent on not being bulldozed by the player, even if it means compromising their season.

In the interim, Tottenham is forced to use Darren Bent, having already sold Robbie Keane. That looks fine thus far, even though their first real match is still over a week away. They are also unable to see Dimitar Berbatov, to Manchester United or anybody else, not having sufficient players up top. Juande Ramos and Spurs can not be held hostage while Arshavin and Zenit work through this. If they want to be confident in being a top seven team, possibly challenging the top four, it’s time to move on.

If that’s how this is to play out, the only good Arshavin’s strike will do is to end the saga. Unfortunately for him, it will end with him staying in St. Petersburg.  In the words of Arshavin’s agent, commenting after the Zenit president canceled the meeting, the chances of the Russian Prince moving to London now seem “very, very weak.”

Quotes

“This is the Russian way.  Nothing will change because this is the old Soviet Union way. For the Russian sports establishment the desires of a player mean absolutely nothing. They are the big bosses. It is a dictatorship. He is a slave.” -  Dennis Lachter, agent, Andrei Arshavin

Links

Arshavin goes on strike to put Spurs deal in jeopardy

If I had to bet, I would put money on Tottenham being without David Villa come September 1.  Still, there is an awful lot of smoke around these rumors for there not to be fire.  But the sticking points in my mind:  the current club says they’re not selling, and the player and his representation are being coy about it all.  This seems more Juande Ramos trying provide a cash catalyst to the situation.

Perhaps Ramos and Ramon Calderon went to some seminar together in the spring?

Today, new rumors come from reliable sources.  Tottenham is set to offer £32 million for David Villa.  The sale of Dimitar Berbatov would fund the transaction, with the Bulgarian to be moved for £30 million.

That reported chain of events should raise doubts as to the veracity of the rumors.  Who is going to pay £30 million for Berbatov?  The reports make it seem like not only will somebody do it (Barça?), but they have confirmed this to Spurs, who are only waiting to find another striker to finalize the Bulgarian’s signing.  And yet Berbatov still plays in the preseason games, as he did this weekend.  So beyond the fact that Valencia seems ill-disposed to selling their striker, there are problems with this story.

If somebody has confirmed they want to buy Berbatov for £30 million, why wait?  Spurs didn’t wait to sell Robbie Keane to Liverpool, were willing to create a hole in their linep (which, thankfully, Darren Bent has filled nicely), and now Zenit St. Petersburg is holding Ramos over the coals on Andrei Arshavin’s price.

The same rumors that have Spurs making a new, record-setting bid for Villa have them staying in the picture with Arshavin.  It is all very fantastical, but I refuse to doubt anything Spurs-related after they improbably sold Robbie Keane and then decided David Bentley was a good fit.   Just as I may be proven wrong on Bentley, I may be proven wrong on Villa, and the Spain international could be in London by the end of the month.

The move makes sense if Valencia is you think the reports of their debt problems are accurate.  I never know what to trust with those stories because there are so many different ways clubs can elect to report their debt that I always feel like I’m on the end of a marketing campaign.  If Valencia were inclined to see Villa, though, wouldn’t they have done it a month ago, when Villa’s value was sky-high after Euro 2008 and they could spend the next month using the proceeds to procure a replacement?  With their UEFA Cup campaign about to start and a reasonable expectation they will compete for a UEFA Cup (or even Champions League) spot for next season (as well as wanting to defend the Copa del Rey), how does now doing an about face on Villa make sense?

As you can tell by my inane use of questions as writing devices, I don’t think it does.  All this smoke we’re seeing it just that: smoke.  That said, he would fit rather nicely in North London.

Quotes
“David likes London and likes how Spurs play under Ramos. If they present an offer, Valencia will seriously study the subject.” - Jose Luis Tamargo, agent, Villa
“Valencia CF has made no agreement nor are they involved in any negotiations to transfer David Villa and David Jimenez Silva to any club in Spain or abroad.” - Valencia
“It is completely untrue. I have informed both the players and their agents in an official and clear manner that the firm intention of the club is for both of the players to stay with us and see out their contracts.” - Valencia

Links
Tottenham eyeing £60million triple swoop?
Spurs reportedly prep $80M mega-bid for Villa
Spurs set for record breaking swoop
Valencia furious over Villa-Silva sale claims
Valencia determined to keep stars
Valencia want to keep Spanish stars Villa and Silva
Soriano vows to keep stars at Valencia

Juande Ramos came to White Hart Lane representing a complete change in attitude, one that would emphasize a more free-flowing but technical brand of football. He would bring the best parts of his La Liga background (the skilled and technical play) and merge them with what the Premiership is known for (speed, pace, and athleticism). In bringing in Luka Modric and Giovani Dos Santos, Ramos seemed to underscore that message. If nothing else, Spurs would be quicker and more skilled in attack.

To a certain extent, this justified the sale of Robbie Keane. Yes, Keane wanted to leave, but part of what lessened the blow was knowing the money Liverpool would give for him could be put towards Ramos’s renovation. Keane is a great player who could fit in anywhere, but would he play as well off of Modric and Dos Santos as a David Villa or an Andrei Arshavin? Keane is not quite as good a fit for this new approach as Dimitar Berbatov, who may still be able to be convinced to stay on at North London should sufficient talent be brought in and he was the key in pushing the back line.

That plan, in the moments after Keane was sold, seemed to be coming into place. Rumors of Valencia’s willingness to talk David Villa surfaced. Diego Capel from Sevilla had indicated a willingness to soften his stance on not leaving this season. Thiago Neves as still out there, and Andrei Arshavin’s agent had confirmed contact between Tottenham and Zenit.

With so many possibilities out there that would continue the revitalization of Juande Ramos’s team, it was disappointing to see such a conventional move to capture David Bentley. I think Bentley is a fine player, but Spurs must value him much higher than I do, because the reports of £15 to £17 million to capture the right midfielder almost completely exhausts their Keane money. They are still lacking a striker unless they want to move Dos Santos into that role, something which does not seem their Plan A as they continue their Arshavin pursuit today.

There are some that would trade Keane for Bentley plus three to five million pounds. I would not. Even if you grant Bentley the better player of the two, it’s unclear he is the better player for Tottenham. Many of the traits listed in the first paragraph that Ramos has explicitly or implicitly sought throughout the summer are absent from Bentley’s game. He is not the fastest or most athletic player, nor does he play at a great pace. As the featured player in Blackburn’s attack he was able to score five goals and direct pass onto eleven others, but with Modric slated to be the maestro for Spurs, Bentley becomes a role player - a specialist. He will play on the right, cross to Berbatov (should the Bulgarian be kept), take set pieces and corners. Tottenham has just paid over £15 million for a player who will struggle to keep up with the rest of the team and be relegated into a secondary contributor’s role.

That paragraph may be a bit harsh on Bentley. He may come into his own for Tottenham, but I just don’t see it. Even if Ramos thinks Bentley will shine, when you spend £15 to £18 million you should not have to wish improvement. For that money, you should not be banking on a player whose value to your team is unclear to a random, football-crazy blogger. At that price, some things should be clear.

Ramos should have pushed harder for Diego Capel.  He’s cheaper.  He’s younger.  He’s better.  He will improve more.  He fits in better with what Ramos has said he wants to do.  There is a dynamism to Capel’s game which Bentley will never have.  He is not as good on crosses and set-pieces as Bentley, but if Berbatov moves, Tottenham will not have anybody to target.

Whereas Bentley is a star player for mid-table clubs, Capel will eventually be able to play and star for the best clubs in the world.

Perhaps Sevilla was being too demanding (if they were willing to move him at all), but if reports over the last week were any indication, there was room between player and club for Tottenham to step in.

If they couldn’t get Capel, they should have left the money available to acquire the supporting striker they need. The worst outcome in paying top-dollar for Bentley is not acquiring a less-than-ideal player. Bentley will be fine, but if the fee sent to Blackburn forces a compromise on the striker they need, the one positive from last year about Spurs (their attack) will have been compromised to get the England international.

Spurs fans wait with a cautious optimism, electing to look more at the striker they’re rumored to get than at Bentley, who all the supporters can live with. But instead of looking at that striker, Spurs followers should take a moment to look towards Sevilla and Diego Capel. Even though he plays the opposite side of midfield, he was still a better fit.

This article will be revised for publication on American Soccer Reader later tonight.

Quotes

“Tottenham Hotspur plc is pleased to announce that agreement has been reached with Blackburn Rovers for the transfer of the registration of the England international midfielder, David Bentley, age 23 years, to Tottenham Hotspur FC for a total consideration of 15 million pounds and up to an additional two million payable upon future performances. The player’s contract is for a period of up to six years.” - Tottenham
“I am calm and I am only thinking about succeeding here (Sevilla) at the moment.” - Capel
“The only way that things could change would be if another club and Sevilla came to an agreement.” - Capel
“For sure everybody wants to grow as a footballer, I’m at a great club, but you always have better objectives.” - Capel
“I know there’s something, but Sevilla trust me and I owe them for this confidence.” - Capel
“I had my heart set on Tottenham and I didn’t think about going to any other club.” - Bentley
“I’ve come here with a big price tag and I have to repay Tottenham with all of my heart.” - Bentley
“There are a lot of good players here, you look at (Luka) Modric, Giovani dos Santos and I’m looking forward to fitting in the side somewhere.” - Bentley
“I’m sure he will bring the best ability to our team and we can help him maximise his potential.” - Ramos
“Working under someone like Ramos is great. He’s going to get the best out of me.” - Bentley
“I’ve got a lot of respect for him for what he’s achieved. I’ve talked a lot to the other players about him and I’m sure he’ll push me on to the next level. He’s really good.” - Bentley
“Gazza was my favourite player, all my mates are Tottenham fans and there’s a piece of my heart at this club.” - Bentley
“We can do anything we want and anything we put our minds to. We’ve got a great manager and you can see what he did last season.” - Bentley

Links

Capel not seeking sale
Capel Leaves Next Move In Sevilla’s Hands
Clubs will decide my fate - Capel
£12.5m winger wants to join Spurs
Diego Capel coudl still move to Tottenham
Capel considering Sevilla exit as Spurs hover
Capel confirms Tottenham interest
Sevilla winger reveals Spurs contact
Spurs complete Bentley signing
Spurs unveil Bentley
Bentley says his heart is at Tottenham
Bentley eyes top four spot
Bentley transfer details announced
Spurs splash out on brand new Bentley
Tottenham complete Bentley signing
Tottenham confirm £15m six-year deal for Bentley
Spurs unveil Bentley

Yesterday, Andrei Arshavin’s agent said that Zenit St. Petersburg was in negotiations with Tottenham regarding the transfer for his client to the North London club. Today, the club confirmed the negotiations, adding that the Russian Prince could be making his way to England within five days.

The price Zenit is reported to be seeking is £20 million with at least one report saying it’s £24 million, the highest figure reported since the Arshavin frenzy started six weeks ago.  The main difference between then any now:  Tottenham has already started to play their hand in regards to their strikers, having sold Robbie Keane to Liverpool.  Zenit will be negotiating from a position of strength - able to afford Arshavin, willing to keep him, having a buyer with a need.  Still, you don’t quote a number like £24 million for a 27-year-old unless you’re willing to come down.  If Zenit is willing to let their number fall below £20 million so Spurs don’t take a loss on the Keane sale, a deal should be done.

Between player and new club, negotiations may also be farther along then yesterday’s initial reports hinted.  Arshavin’s agent says that personal terms have been agreed to between the Russian Prince and Spurs, helping to explain why reports have surfaced of Tottenham’s withdrawal from David Villa and Diego Milito talks.  Arshavin now seems destined for White Hart Lane, as it is unlikely Spurs would have gotten to this point in Zenit talks, forsaking other options, if they were not eventually prepared to meet Zenit’s asking price.  Perhaps Zenit should hold out for the full £24 million?

Zenit’s preparations for an Arshavin move are said to have begun, with the St. Petersburg club having made a play for Marseille’s Mathieu Valbuena.  Their did was reported to be €18 million, a good amount for a 23-year-old midfielder who has only one year’s experience at a top level.  With Arshavin gone, Zenit will need another scoring threat to compliment and compensate for Pavel Progrebnyak.  Valbuena is unlikely to be that kind of player.

Quotes

“We have certain contacts with Tottenham, but when they will conclude, I still do not know.” - Konstantin Sarsaniya, spokeman, Zenit
“Tottenham have an interest in the player, and I understand that the player has an interest in the club too.” - Sarsaniya
“Tottenham Hotpsur is the club to agree personal terms with the player but unfortunately we are too far making an agreement with Zenit St Petersburg.” - Dennis Lachter, agent, Arshavin
“The promises given to the player have gone and, day to day, there are new updates regarding the transfer.” - Lachter
“Several inside the club couldn’t agree the concept of the deal and this is the main problem.” - Lachter
“Andrei likes the way Juande Ramos is going to play at Tottenham and this is the main point of our decision - not only the money but the desire of the manager to have the player.” - Lachter
“I have already taken a final decision. It only remains to finalise it with the club management.” - Arshavin

Links

Zenit ready for Arshavin exit
Zenit:  Arshavin talks continuing
Zenit hint Arshavin agreement is close
Zenit bid for Valbuena
Arshavin could join Tottenham Hotspur soon
Record fee for Bentley stretches Tottenham in pursuit of Arshavin
Spurs told to dig deeper for Arshavin after securing Bentley
Milito off Spurs’ radar
Arshavin agrees Spurs terms but deal stalls
Arshavin set to join Bentley at Spurs
Spurs in talks with Arshavin
Spurs in Arshavin talks

Earlier today I posted to American Soccer Reader the news that David Bentley had completed his move from Blackburn to Tottenham Hotspur.  It can be found here, and it’s pretty much a stright-up report.

It was a move that had been widely rumored for most of the summer, so I don’t have any keen thoughts on the transaction.  My gut thinks Tottenham’s probably overpaid, but we won’t know that until the transfer fee gets released.  I’m also not sure how much this helps Spurs, as they still have yet to address their defensive deficiencies.  Given the style of player they acquired, there decision regarding Dimitar Berbatov and his  replacement becomes a little more complicated.  Players like Andrei Arshavin, David Villa and Thiago Neves aren’t the best type of scorers to fit with Bentley.  In fact, Berbatov is a much better compliment for him.  Does this mean Berbatov is now likely to stay?

I will post more refined thoughts on this tomorrow, but while you may before than read how Spurs are ready for an assault on the Premiership’s Champions League spots, I am unconvinced.

Links

Tottenham Completes Bentley Acquisition