World Football Postulant

After Liverpool’s defeat of Standard Liège, it was announced that Steven Gerrard would undergo surgery Thursday morning to correct a groin problem that has bothered him for the last month. The Reds’ captain decided to play through the pain this weekend against Middlesbrough as well as tonight, though against the Belgian champions he was a none factor and Rafa Benitez probably would have been better served with somebody else in the lineup. That Liverpool does not have somebody to fill that spot may have contributed to the decision to play Gerrard, and thanks to the upcoming break in the club schedule for World Cup qualifiers, Liverpool should only have to go one match without Stevie G.

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Liverpool may be one of the eight teams in the top pool for tomorrow’s Champions League group stage draw, but they were the closest of the thirty-two teams to being out of the tournament after the final round of qualifying finished today.

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By now, we should all know:  The ratio of a.) attention given to Gareth Barry’s transfer saga to b.) the positive effect on final scores either Aston Villa or Liverpool can expect to receive from his services is way out of control.  To illustrate this, I not only linked all the articles on Gareth Barry that I have access to (below, but I do this with almost every post, so it’s not that big of a deal), but I created this uber-scientific chart to illustrate the relation between contribution and attention:

As you can see, red line higher than blue line.  But don’t quote me on that.  Throughout my highly funded study, Barry remained a versatile midfielder who doesn’t score goals, is approaching the point in his career when his skill set should start dwindling - a valuable contributor to any club, for sure, but not somebody who is going to dominate any matches.

If you asked Martin O’Neill who he would most readily do without when given the choice of Barry, Ashley Young, or Gabriel Abondelyour, it will be a very short conversation.  Barry goes.  The midfielder has more in common with Nigel Reo-Coker in terms of role, scope, and contribution than either Young or Abondelyour.

I don’t think he’s an £18 million player, but Martin O’Neill only needs to find one club to agree with that evaluation to make my view wrong.  If some thought £19-£20 million was overpaying for Robbie Keane, what will they think when/if the Barry deal happens?

Speaking of the newest Red, let’s look at the same analysis done on possible-future-Barry-teammate Keane:

Keane’s overall contribution is higher than Barry’s (the guy did score 23 goals last year), but it’s still pretty far below 1 (whatever “1″ is supposed to mean here).  The attention he’s received - otherwise known as red line - is dwarfed by Barry’s.

OK - I’m getting bogged down by this high-level, academic conversation Let’s leave all this science-talk for the journals and get back to the paper talk.

The drama behind the will-he, won’t-he entailed in the Gareth Barry saga has gotten out-of-control.  He is clearly a good player, as evidenced by his increasing profile within Fabio Capello’s England men’s national team.  In May’s international friendlies, he showed the potential to form a great partnership with Steven Gerrard, sitting deeper in midfield and jumping into the attack as opportunity dictates.  He would fit in well playing behind a line of attackers featuring Gerrard, Ryan Babel, and Dirk Kuyt, working with Javier Mascherano and Xabi Alonso to bring the ball out of Liverpool’s end and into the attack.

While those were a lot of words dedicate to how Barry could help Liverpool, they are not words which apply exclusively to Barry.  Somebody so inclined could make the argument that the aformentioned Reo-Coker, three years younger than Barry who Aston Villa last season for £8.5 million, casts a similar shadow.  Is Gareth Bary worth upwards of £10 million more than Reo-Coker?  Middlebrough’s Stewart Downing is a different kind of midfielder but is also three years younger, would be a very interesting addition given Fernando Torres, Keane and Gerrard to target, and would probably be cheaper than Barry.  Sulley Muntari just moved to Inter for much less than £18 million.  How nice would Muntari have looked in a midfield with Gerrard and Mascherano?

As the reports continue to come in about how Martin O’Neill does not want to sell, Barry wants to move, Liverpool’s tabled another offer, et cetera, remember the evidence:  the charts in addition to the comparable players.  If Liverpool were able to get this player they have sought all summer, where would have rank amongst their players?  You’ve got Gerrard and Torres and Mascherano, the true heart of this team.  Keane’s just been added, and Babel’s a young and promising starlet.  Jamie Carragher’s got a special and important role on this team at the back.  Barry, if he came, would blend in, not stand out.  He would be the midfield Dirk Kuyt.  It’s not like this is Frank Lampard we’re talking about here.

Step back and think about how absurd this Gareth Barry-thing has gotten.  It will give you something comical (and positive) to associate with all those stories clogging up your RSS feed.

And now having written about this, I can delete all those items from my feeds.

Quotes

“Aston Villa can announce that Gareth Barry will be staying with the club following the interest from Liverpool over recent months. During discussions in the past few days, a final deadline to conclude this episode was set that all parties were aware of and agreed to. This deadline has now passed and so Gareth will remain with Villa.” - Aston Villa
“Naturally we’re all absolutely delighted that Gareth will be staying at Villa Park and relieved to find a resolution and closure to the saga.” - O’Neill
“We are still trying to sign the players that we need and if we need to sell someone now, OK, we will do so. If we can do it (the Barry deal) before the end of the transfer window, we will continue to try.” - Rafa Benitez, manager, Liverpool

Links

Barry refuses to give up on move
Barry the hatcher:  A true Villain is born
Reds urge Barry to hand in request
Villa adamant Barry is staying
O’Neill tries to close door on Barry transfer
Barry’s Liverpool move still on
Barry staying at Villa after Liverpool run out of time
Villa declare Barry move to Anfield dead
O’Neill’s relief at Barry stay
Barry stays at Villa
Reds miss deadline to sign Barry
Villa call off Barry move to Liverpool
Barry staying at Villa
Villa claim Barry is staying
Villa claim Barry stays, despite Reds interest
Liverpool hold fresh Barry talks
Reds and Villa ‘agree Barry fee’
Villa end negotiations with Liverpool over Barry

Juande Ramos came to White Hart Lane representing a complete change in attitude, one that would emphasize a more free-flowing but technical brand of football. He would bring the best parts of his La Liga background (the skilled and technical play) and merge them with what the Premiership is known for (speed, pace, and athleticism). In bringing in Luka Modric and Giovani Dos Santos, Ramos seemed to underscore that message. If nothing else, Spurs would be quicker and more skilled in attack.

To a certain extent, this justified the sale of Robbie Keane. Yes, Keane wanted to leave, but part of what lessened the blow was knowing the money Liverpool would give for him could be put towards Ramos’s renovation. Keane is a great player who could fit in anywhere, but would he play as well off of Modric and Dos Santos as a David Villa or an Andrei Arshavin? Keane is not quite as good a fit for this new approach as Dimitar Berbatov, who may still be able to be convinced to stay on at North London should sufficient talent be brought in and he was the key in pushing the back line.

That plan, in the moments after Keane was sold, seemed to be coming into place. Rumors of Valencia’s willingness to talk David Villa surfaced. Diego Capel from Sevilla had indicated a willingness to soften his stance on not leaving this season. Thiago Neves as still out there, and Andrei Arshavin’s agent had confirmed contact between Tottenham and Zenit.

With so many possibilities out there that would continue the revitalization of Juande Ramos’s team, it was disappointing to see such a conventional move to capture David Bentley. I think Bentley is a fine player, but Spurs must value him much higher than I do, because the reports of £15 to £17 million to capture the right midfielder almost completely exhausts their Keane money. They are still lacking a striker unless they want to move Dos Santos into that role, something which does not seem their Plan A as they continue their Arshavin pursuit today.

There are some that would trade Keane for Bentley plus three to five million pounds. I would not. Even if you grant Bentley the better player of the two, it’s unclear he is the better player for Tottenham. Many of the traits listed in the first paragraph that Ramos has explicitly or implicitly sought throughout the summer are absent from Bentley’s game. He is not the fastest or most athletic player, nor does he play at a great pace. As the featured player in Blackburn’s attack he was able to score five goals and direct pass onto eleven others, but with Modric slated to be the maestro for Spurs, Bentley becomes a role player - a specialist. He will play on the right, cross to Berbatov (should the Bulgarian be kept), take set pieces and corners. Tottenham has just paid over £15 million for a player who will struggle to keep up with the rest of the team and be relegated into a secondary contributor’s role.

That paragraph may be a bit harsh on Bentley. He may come into his own for Tottenham, but I just don’t see it. Even if Ramos thinks Bentley will shine, when you spend £15 to £18 million you should not have to wish improvement. For that money, you should not be banking on a player whose value to your team is unclear to a random, football-crazy blogger. At that price, some things should be clear.

Ramos should have pushed harder for Diego Capel.  He’s cheaper.  He’s younger.  He’s better.  He will improve more.  He fits in better with what Ramos has said he wants to do.  There is a dynamism to Capel’s game which Bentley will never have.  He is not as good on crosses and set-pieces as Bentley, but if Berbatov moves, Tottenham will not have anybody to target.

Whereas Bentley is a star player for mid-table clubs, Capel will eventually be able to play and star for the best clubs in the world.

Perhaps Sevilla was being too demanding (if they were willing to move him at all), but if reports over the last week were any indication, there was room between player and club for Tottenham to step in.

If they couldn’t get Capel, they should have left the money available to acquire the supporting striker they need. The worst outcome in paying top-dollar for Bentley is not acquiring a less-than-ideal player. Bentley will be fine, but if the fee sent to Blackburn forces a compromise on the striker they need, the one positive from last year about Spurs (their attack) will have been compromised to get the England international.

Spurs fans wait with a cautious optimism, electing to look more at the striker they’re rumored to get than at Bentley, who all the supporters can live with. But instead of looking at that striker, Spurs followers should take a moment to look towards Sevilla and Diego Capel. Even though he plays the opposite side of midfield, he was still a better fit.

This article will be revised for publication on American Soccer Reader later tonight.

Quotes

“Tottenham Hotspur plc is pleased to announce that agreement has been reached with Blackburn Rovers for the transfer of the registration of the England international midfielder, David Bentley, age 23 years, to Tottenham Hotspur FC for a total consideration of 15 million pounds and up to an additional two million payable upon future performances. The player’s contract is for a period of up to six years.” - Tottenham
“I am calm and I am only thinking about succeeding here (Sevilla) at the moment.” - Capel
“The only way that things could change would be if another club and Sevilla came to an agreement.” - Capel
“For sure everybody wants to grow as a footballer, I’m at a great club, but you always have better objectives.” - Capel
“I know there’s something, but Sevilla trust me and I owe them for this confidence.” - Capel
“I had my heart set on Tottenham and I didn’t think about going to any other club.” - Bentley
“I’ve come here with a big price tag and I have to repay Tottenham with all of my heart.” - Bentley
“There are a lot of good players here, you look at (Luka) Modric, Giovani dos Santos and I’m looking forward to fitting in the side somewhere.” - Bentley
“I’m sure he will bring the best ability to our team and we can help him maximise his potential.” - Ramos
“Working under someone like Ramos is great. He’s going to get the best out of me.” - Bentley
“I’ve got a lot of respect for him for what he’s achieved. I’ve talked a lot to the other players about him and I’m sure he’ll push me on to the next level. He’s really good.” - Bentley
“Gazza was my favourite player, all my mates are Tottenham fans and there’s a piece of my heart at this club.” - Bentley
“We can do anything we want and anything we put our minds to. We’ve got a great manager and you can see what he did last season.” - Bentley

Links

Capel not seeking sale
Capel Leaves Next Move In Sevilla’s Hands
Clubs will decide my fate - Capel
£12.5m winger wants to join Spurs
Diego Capel coudl still move to Tottenham
Capel considering Sevilla exit as Spurs hover
Capel confirms Tottenham interest
Sevilla winger reveals Spurs contact
Spurs complete Bentley signing
Spurs unveil Bentley
Bentley says his heart is at Tottenham
Bentley eyes top four spot
Bentley transfer details announced
Spurs splash out on brand new Bentley
Tottenham complete Bentley signing
Tottenham confirm £15m six-year deal for Bentley
Spurs unveil Bentley

When the first rumors surfaced a month ago, I thought them laughable.  Robbie Keane leave Tottenham?  Be allowed to leave Tottenham?  Especially considered Dimitar Berbatov was likely to go?

Not going to happen, I thought.

Now, not only has the move happened, it happened before Berbatov was moved, to a squad that Tottenham should have been targeting.  If Spurs really wanted to crack the top four, Liverpool was their most reasonable target, yet they’ve just helped the Reds move closer to third, not fifth.

But more than the effects on the table, I wonder what this move says about Spurs’ culture; specifically, the stamp Juande Ramos is seeking to put on the club.  Keane was Spurs’ most popular player, and whether he wanted to move or not (seems he did, even if he was not as public about it as Gareth Barry’s been) there are serious implications to moving a player as popular as Keane.  It seems Ramos didn’t think twice about it.  Moving Keane not only is a cash boon for the Spaniard, it also allows Ramos to turn the page on the preceding era and completely remake the squad in his own image.

Because I think Keane a very good player, I don’t like the move.  Ramos could go out and get somebody like David Villa to take Keane’s place, but what are the odds Villa eclipses the 23 goals Keane produced for Spurs last season?  If he comes close, either over or under that total, what’s to say it’s worth trading a fan favorite for an expatriate countryman?  Seems it would have made more sense to just give Keane a raise to the salary you would have to pay Villa, telling the Irishman you want to continue to make him the club’s figurehead.

With that in mind, any move like this has to be made as much from a desire for change as a tactical consideration, and until Ramos is actually able to get a Villa or Thiago Neves to come to White Hart Lane, it’s a step back.  All along, I’ve thought talk from Spurs fans about top four has been way overblown, but if that is truly a club goal, this does nothing to achieve it.

Twenty million pounds is nothing to sneeze at for a twenty-eight year old striker.  Ramos can defend the sale on that alone.  I am just not sure I would have done the same, in his position.  Sell Berbatov first and then make an evaluation.  But it’s clear Ramos has more than just a player-move in mind.  He’s trying to change the whole Spurs landscape.  Mission accomplished, Juande.  Without Keane in the lineup, Tottenham certainly will look entirely different.

Of course, I’m completely overlooking the fact that Keane requested a transfer and seemingly wanted to move to Liverpool.  Claiming it his boyhood dream to play for Liverpool, Keane has been working behind the scenes to orchestrate the move to Liverpool.  I suspect there’s more to this move than mere boyhood fancy.  Pascal Chimbonda expressed his displeasure with the Ramos regime before leaving for Sunderland, and I suspect the feeling extends to more on the roster.  Keane may be too loyal to the club to throw their new manager under the boss, but this generation’s Liverpool team is not the same club Keane grew up with.  I suspect his boyhood affinity is being rekindled as a proxy for the desire to call it a day on the Tottenham chapter of his career.

Quotes

“I would like to place on record my thanks to the board, players and fans of Tottenham for the past six years, which were the best and most enjoyable of my career to date.” - Keane
“I will never forget them. I would specifically like to thank chairman Daniel Levy for understanding, that, as a fan, joining Liverpool is a lifelong dream of mine and one I couldn’t let pass me by.” - Keane
“I was incredibly disappointed when I first heard, not only that Liverpool had been working behind the scenes to bring Robbie to Anfield, but that Robbie himself wanted to go and he submitted a transfer request.” - Daniel Levy, chairman, Spurs
“I have already made my opinion clear on the nature of this transaction. I don’t regard it as a transfer deal - that is something which happens between two clubs when they both agree to trade - this is very much an enforced sale.” - Levy

Links

Liverpool sign Spurs’ Keane
Keane makes Reds move
Liverpool sign Ireland striker Keane from Spurs
Liverpool signs Keane from Spurs
Liverpool completes signing of Spurs’ Keane

Daniel Levy has complained to the Premier League about the manner in which Liverpool and Manchester United are conducting their approaches to Spurs’ forwards Robbie Keane and Dimitar Berbatov. Levy’s main concern is that both Rafa Benitez and Alex Ferguson have commented in the media on players under contract to Tottenham. Benitez has said that he is pursuing Keane while Ferguson predicted Berbatov’s transfer should be successful given time. Levy’s concern is that each manager is unsettling his players.

Levy has a point, but if Tottenham is going to file complaints every time another club comments on one of their players then they are going to find life amongst the top four very complicated.  This summer, just about every player on the Chelsea roster have been the subject of some kind of rumor.  Similarly at Arsenal, key players like Emmanuel Adebayor and Alexander Hleb (amongst others) have dominated rumor mills.  If Martin O’Neill filed paperwork every time Gareth Barry’s name came out of Rafa Benitez’s mouth, his hands would be covered in paper cuts.

David Levy needs to calm down.  Filing paper work is no way to ingratiate your club to the league or the clubs occupying that rarefied air to which your side is aspiring.  You are selling Berbatov and you seem to be considering a sale of Keane.  If Benitez and Ferguson didn’t comment on these players publicly, they’re be much more negativity directed to them than if they feigned ignorance.  I suppose in an ideal world neither manager would be asked to talk, but Levy needs to realize the reality of the situation.  This isn’t like Real Madrid coming after Cristiano Ronaldo, a parallel Levy tries to draw.  This is rather pedestrian.

Quotes

“Today’s public comments by Manchester United’s manager, announcing that he has made an offer for Dimitar and is confident that the deal will go through with time working in their favour, is a blatant example of sheer arrogance and interference with one of our players.” - Levy

“We have made Tottenham an offer on Berbatov and we have good expectations that this deal will go through.” - Ferguson

“It is also probably one of the worst offences by any manager in the Premier League to date and is unbelievably hypocritical given his recent comments in respect of Cristiano Ronaldo and Real Madrid.” - Levy

“Benitez made similar comments in respect of Robbie recently and we made an official complaint to the PL about the conduct of Liverpool earlier this week.” - Levy

“The behaviour of both clubs has been disgraceful.” - Levy

“We confirm we have received complaints from Tottenham in relation to alleged breaches of Premier League Rules K3 and K8, which govern approaches to contracted players.” - Premier League spokesperson

“The Premier League board will now write to the parties concerned to ask for their observations before considering the appropriate course of action.” - Premier League spokesperson

“We are aware of the allegation and will co-operate with the Premier League as necessary.” - Manchester United spokesperson

Links

Spurs complain over duo
Manchester United confirms Berbatov bid
Spurs report Man Utd and Liverpool to the Premier League
Spurs report United and Liverpool
Spurs report Liverpool and Man Utd
Spurs chief crucifies Fergie and Rafa
Chairman speaks out

Note:  I was writing this when the Crouch-to-Portsmouth-finalization broke.  I’m posting as is.

With the Xabi Alonso deal with Juventus no longer a sure thing, the money garnered from Liverpool’s Peter Crouch sale will be the principle funds used to get Gareth Barry.  Unless Rafa Benitez is able to find another bidder as eager for Alonso’s services as Claudio Raineri and the Old Lady, Barry will end up being the only major acquisition of the Reds’ summer transfer season.  For a club that’s made a lot of noise about being more competitive in the league and in Europe in 2008-09, Liverpool will be left disappointed.

This is not to say that Benitez won’t be able to otherwise address his needs and bridge the gap between his club and the big three, but he dreams of attracting another major striker will be dead.  For lack of funds, there will be no David Villa.  There will also be no Robbie Keane, who rumors had entertaining a move from White Heart Lane to Anfield.  But in lieu of having £20 million to give Tottenham for the Irish star, Benitez was said ready to offer Crouch and cash.  But with the Alonso deal up-in-the-air, Crouch must be sold to Portsmouth, the one team that can secure his signature that’s ready to give cash, lest the Barry deal fall through.

With Steven Gerrard’s scoring from midfield and the expected improvement from Ryan Babel, it’s unclear to  me that Liverpool needs Keane.  Yes, he would make their club better, but Liverpool doesn’t absolutely need him or Villa to compete with the big three.  Playing a 4-5-1, a midfield of Lucas Leiva, Javier Mascherano, Dirk Kuyt, Gerard and Babel could, with the experience of the fall and winter months, be better than the group that reach last season’s Champions League semifinals.  Improving in league could be as much about avoiding another poor start as it is improving on the team’s talent.

The end of the Keane quest could be a good thing, should Benitez decide to spend that money elsewhere.  Or just save it.

Links

Crouch Deal Finalized

Liverpool Finally Agree to Crouch Sale

Hoping Pompey Add Crouch

Aston Villa Confirms Another Bid Rejected

Barry, Liverpool, Villa: This is Getting (More) Ridiculous