Brazil and Argentina clearly have the two best teams in the Beijing Olympics.
The men’s tournament, which starts tomorrow, has had a new spotlight shined on it by Argentina’s desire to defend their gold and Brazil’s quest to capture the one international honor that has alluded them. With names like Lionel Messi, Ronaldinho, Javier Mascherano, Anderson, Sergio Agüero, Diego, Juan Román Riquelme, Alexandre Pato - this list can go on - football fans have not only had their previously dormant interest in the Olympic tournament fed, but visions of an Argentina-Brazil battle for gold tempts to be the highlight of our footballing summer.
Problem: that gold medal match-up is impossible.
Argentina being in Group A and Brazil in Group C, they are drawn to the team side of the medal round, meaning that if each side wins their quarterfinal match, they will meet in the semifinals. One of Argentina and Brazil will go on to the gold medal match. The other will be relegated to the bronze medal match. The match-up of the summer will take place one step sooner than we would have expected.
It is hard to fault the Olympic organizer’s too much, as they had little way to know that Brazil and Argentina would field such strong squads. Even if they did suspect players like Ronaldinho would be in Beijing, it would be stretching the idea of equity to gerrymander the draw. It’s not like the Olympics have a UEFA-esque coefficient system to govern such things. For anybody who wants to bemoan what will be an anti-climactic gold medal match, know there were no ready solutions, and that we are still likely to see Argentina-Brazil.
Or maybe that should be Brazil-Argentina, reversing the order, because if the pre-tournament friendlies are any indication, Brazil should be considered the prohibitive favorite. In addition to wanting to win this tournament badly and having the deepest roster (it’s possible both Jô and Thiago Neves will not start), they Brazilians are playing very well. In friendlies against Singapore and Vietnam, Brazil was sharp, and most encouraging: Ronaldinho looks in-shape, in-form, and motivated. He was a maestro in the opponent’s third, consistently creating opportunities for teammates and forming a dynamic midfield with Werder Bremen’s Diego. Alexandre Pato or Jô will consistently get scoring chances, and even should they not be able to produce, Manchester United’s Anderson and Liverpool’s Lucas Leiva will be lurking outside the box ready to clean-up.
Argentina’s best chance against them in the semifinals will be exploiting an inconsistent center of defence. Thiago Silva and Breno may be the most talent pair of center backs in the tournament, but against Argentina they will be tasked with stopping the two best strikers in La Liga. Thiago Silva lacks the experience to contain Lionel Messi and Sergio Agüero, while the 18-year-old Bayern Munich protege Breno will be out of his depth. If Riquelme and Mascherano can maintain some possession against Brazil’s deep midfield, the ball may be at Messi and Agüero’s feet enough to win the match.
That’s the formula. It remains to be been whether it can be executed. My prediction after the group-by-group. In each group, each team plays the other once, with the top two finishers advancing to the medal round. Wins are worth three points, ties worth one, with the tiebreakers being goal differential, then goals scored.
Group A
Argentina, Australia, Côte d’Ivoire, Serbia
The two best teams are Argentina and the Ivory Coast, with their match to take place tomorrow. An upset by the Ivorians is not out of the question, though the loser may be better off in the long-run. The second place finisher in this group be slotted opposite Brazil’s side-of-the-draw in the medal round, meaning an easier path to the gold medal match. The best team from this group may end up with bronze while the second place finisher, if they can make it past the Netherlands, could win silver. For those hoping for an Argentina-Brazil final, hope for a draw or loss to Côte d’Ivoire, which features a host of Europe-based players, most-notably Chelsea’s Salomon Kalou.
1. Argentina
2. Côte d’Ivoire
3. Serbia
4. Australia
Group B
Japan, Netherlands, Nigeria, United States
The toughest group in the tournament sees the Netherlands and Nigeria as favorites, though both the United States and Japan could advance. There is no finishing order to this group that is out-of-the-question, and the sequence in which the teams play their matches could have a subtle, defining effect on who goes through to the medal round.
The Dutch bring an attack the features Liverpool star Ryan Babel along with Feyenoord’s Roy Maakay, one season removed from staring at Bayern Munich. Their first match will be against the Nigerians, who bring Lokomotiv Moscow’s Peter Odimwingie as their overage striker. The sleeper in this group, the Japanese, stand a good chance of advancing, being in good form and willing to out-work their groupmates in the conditions of Beijing. If the Nigerians drop their opening match to the Netherlands, they could crash out with a let-down in their second match against the Japanese.
And then there are the Americans. Top-to-bottom, this team can be seen as having as much talent as any in the group, and unlike many, they are relatively strong at the back. They’ll be able to compete in each match.
It is still a very tight group, and when considering the individual, team-by-team match-ups, it looks like a tough draw for the United States. They open against Japan, a team that can out-work anybody but may not get the best of the Americans in an opening match. If the United States can survive that taxing match, they get the Netherlands in their second match, and the United States has a poor history against skilled European sides. They will need strong play from their midfield to advance.
In the third game, they have an athletic Nigerian side which will give them problems, though I like them to get a result with the Nigerians having a tough first two matches. Even with that result, I have the Americans finishing third in the group, a result which forces me to admit that may be overly cautious towards my home country.
The second place team from this group will be matched with the winner of Group A, likely Argentina.
1. Netherlands
2. Japan
3. United States
4. Nigeria
Group C
Belgium, Brazil, China, New Zealand
Brazil has the easiest group, which includes the host nation. China is not an international footballing power nor would you expect their U23 side to advance if this tournament were being held in another nation, but defying many logical arguments, the host nation has a way of stepping-up to the occasion in these situations. Given the expectations that are likely to be placed on all Chinese athletes, the host team should take their task much more seriously than either Belgium or New Zealand. When China opens the tournament against New Zealand, the visitors may be overwhelmed. Their match three days later against a Belgium team coming off a pasting from Brazil will determine whether they advance.
The second place team from this group played the winner of Group D in the next round.
1. Brazil
2. China
3. Belgium
4. New Zealand
Group D
Cameroon, Honduras, Italy, South Korea
Italy has only one overage player to Beijing: striker Tomasso Rocchi. At this stage of the competition, it is unlikely to matter. They look to advance with relative ease. It will be slightly disappointing for Americans to see Giuseppe Rossi in Italian blue.
Their main obstacles will be a Cameroon and South Korea. Korea, like Japan, will have to be taken seriously by each opponent lest they be run off the pitch. Cameroon, with Arsenal’s Alexander Song at the back, may be the second most-talented side of the group, but the gap between them and the Koreans may not be enough to overcome what will be a highly organized opponent.
The two sides face each other tomorrow to open their tournaments, with the loser left hoping Honduras, the fourth team in the group, can take points from the other. If the match ends in a draw, how close Korea and Cameroon can play Italy could determine who moves on, as will their willingness to build a goal differential over the Hondurans.
1. Italy
2. South Korea
3. Cameroon
4. Honduras
Medal Round
If the above predictions hold, the top half of the draw will see a Italy-China quarterfinal opposite Netherlands-Côte d’Ivoire. China will end up looking like the beneficiaries of an easy group draw when matched-up against a squad of Serie A-experienced players. Italy will advance to face the Netherlands, who will have a difficult time with Côte d’Ivoire (who I originally had winning at this stage) before their experienced scorers find their way through a suspect opponent’s back line.
In the semifinal match, the Italian’s overall team strength should see them through to the finals after a relatively easy draw. They are clearly the best team in their group, will face an upstart host-nation in the quarters, and will have the Netherlands in the semis while the other half of the draw will feature a clash of the titans. The Dutch will go to the bronze medal game with no easier task then the Italians. Each side will face either Brazil or Argentina.
Brazil will be annoyed by but have no problem defeating the Koreans. Argentina, however, will get a rematch with a Japanese side they had trouble with in pre-tournament competition. I expect the defenders to get through, though, creating the match of the tournament. I like Brazil to move on, with Argentina going to the bronze medal match.
Even deflated from missing out on a chance at the title, Argentina will defeat the Netherlands to claim the bronze. It may be an uneventful match defined by a few moments of individual brilliance, but while they may leave disappointed, the 2004 gold medalists will not leave Beijing empty handed.
In the gold medal match, I am tempted to pick Italy, as I think they have the ability to exploit Brazil’s weaknesses in central defense. With Rossi and overage Tomasso Rocchi as strikers and Robert Aquafresca as a third option, the Italians can make themselves dangerous. I bring this up because Brazil is not know for consistently playing at their best, particularly under Dunga, as their current standing in World Cup qualifying can attest.
Given that Brazil’s roster construction and tournament goals go beyond their match-up with Argentina (even though the fans’ hopes for this tournament may not go much farther), I am not betting on a Brazil let-down after dispatching Argentina. The program wants a gold medal to complete their trophy case. There is little reason to think Italy’s Rossi-Rocchi combination more likely to exploit Brazil than Messi-Agüero.
I give the Italians a 2-in-5 chance of winning, so I wouldn’t be shocked Italy shocked the pundants. I, however, will merely be wrong.
Gold: Brazil
Silver: Italy
Bronze: Argentina
After Liverpool’s defeat of Standard Liège, it was announced that Steven Gerrard would undergo surgery Thursday morning to correct a groin problem that has bothered him for the last month. The Reds’ captain decided to play through the pain this weekend against Middlesbrough as well as tonight, though against the Belgian champions he was a none factor and Rafa Benitez probably would have been better served with somebody else in the lineup. That Liverpool does not have somebody to fill that spot may have contributed to the decision to play Gerrard, and thanks to the upcoming break in the club schedule for World Cup qualifiers, Liverpool should only have to go one match without Stevie G.
