Aug 27 2008
Liverpool may be one of the eight teams in the top pool for tomorrow’s Champions League group stage draw, but they were the closest of the thirty-two teams to being out of the tournament after the final round of qualifying finished today.
Aug 16 2008
Some will think Gretar Steinsson’s better, but Fernando Torres’ game winning goal against Sunderland has the benefit of being unambiguously intentional - a laser from just outside the box in the 83rd minute that was beyond Craig Gordon seemingly before he could leap. Off an innocuous build-up in a match that Liverpool and Sunderland has played somewhat even, Torres gave his fans another reason to think him the best player in the world. He took a performance that was by-the-book, recent vintage Liverpool - uninspiring, playing down to their opponents, potentially leaving points on the field - and salvaged the weekend with a win.
Given what happened Wednesday (a 0-0 draw in the first leg of Liverpool’s Champions League tie against Belgium’s Standard Liege), Torres salvaged the club’s week. Given what happened this summer (famously failing to get Gareth Barry), Torres may have salvaged the team’s last two months by finally giving LFC fans something to cheer. Given the subtle whispers that have started humming about Rafa Benitez’s status with the club, Torres may have temporarily unplugged the rumor mill.
But Benitez did not look his normal, confident self on the sidelines today. He seems legitimately concerned that his talented roster had so much trouble. The Reds tied gainst the champions from Belgium, and against Sunderland - a lower-half team without their biggest scoring threat - they were played surprisingly even.
In typical Liverpool fashion, they granted their opponents very few opportunities. Aside from some heart-starting miscues from Sami Hyppia and Andrea Dossena (miscues that made Liverpool backers thankful for the presence of Jamie Carragher), Sunderland were not afforded opportunities. At the same time, Liverpool showed almost no ambition in attack, allowing almost the same stalwart description to be applied to Sunderland’s defense. The difference, of course, is that the Reds have Torres, Steven Gerrard and Robbie Keane. Liverpool should expect more of themselves.
The continued inability of Benitez to get his team to play to their talent level has to be the first charge in his indictment, a charge that looked all the more valid when you consider what Roy Keane is working with. Against one of the eight or ten most talented teams in the world, Keane assembled a collection of cast-offs and still almost salvaged a point. The Black Cats played tight and smart, but they did not bring out the bus. They did try to score, if they weren’t exactly ambitious. When you have players like Andy Reid in your starting XI, there’s only so ambitious you can be.
What would Roy Keane be able to do with Liverpool’s talent? It’s almost a scary question to ask, and there seems little doubt he would do more than Benitez has. And because Benitez was matched-up with Keane today and barely salvaged a point, it is as if the Spaniard lost, though his team got three points. For eighty-three minutes, Liverpool let Sunderland play even with them. If, on the season’s opening day and three days after an embarrassing result against Standard Liege, Benitez can not get his players to be the dominant force their talent dictates, then will Liverpool ever play the consistently great football it will take to challenge for the league title?
Saturday’s match gave us every reason to believe Roy Keane’s growing reputation well-earned. He appears to be on the verge of taking the Tottenham cast-offs he has acquired and making them into a team that might rise to the middle of the table. On Saturday, they looked as good or better than half the teams in the league.
Benitez, on the other hand, is forcing followers to ask questions. It is only one game, and Liverpool could still go on to have a great season. Yet, the match was so incredibly emblematic of every criticism leveled at Benitez over the last few seasons. If they can not show better in matches like today’s, when will they show?
Note: This article will be edited for posting to American Soccer Reader.
Links
Torres summons lightning strike
Sunderland 0 Liverpool 1: Moment of Torres magic lifts Benitez
Keane points to fatigue
Torres spares Reds’ blushes
Sunderland 0-1 Liverpool: Torres to the rescue
Rafa hails match winner Torres
Torres strike knicks Reds victory
Keane please despite defeat
Sunderland v Liverpool ratings&stats
Torres strike sinks Sunderland
Sunderland 0-1 Liverpool
Torres the hero as Reds leave it late
Aug 15 2008
This morning, I finished my English Premier League preview for American Soccer Reader. Having spent the better part of a week on it, I am very happy with the product. Yes, I could do for a good editor (what else is new), but I think I’ve given each club its just due and come up with a viable picture of the league
The one facet that distinguishes my preview from any other I’ve seen is the use of modelling to play out the season a number of times in order to get a more robust view of the league. I wrote a simple script that took the goals for, goals allowed totals for each time to simulate played seasons. I played 1,000 seasons to get some basic probabilities for each team.
I’m not sure if any of that helps describe this season’s Premiership, but it was fun. From that and my by-the-eye analysis, here are some highlights.
Please go and check out the previews. Each team has an individual preview that walks through their expected record, goals for and allowed, best and worse case scenarios, leading goal scorers and their probabilities for winning the league, qualifying for Champions League, finishing top seven, and being relegated.
I will be updating the WFP American Soccer Reader page (above) this afternoon.
Jul 31 2008
By now, we should all know: The ratio of a.) attention given to Gareth Barry’s transfer saga to b.) the positive effect on final scores either Aston Villa or Liverpool can expect to receive from his services is way out of control. To illustrate this, I not only linked all the articles on Gareth Barry that I have access to (below, but I do this with almost every post, so it’s not that big of a deal), but I created this uber-scientific chart to illustrate the relation between contribution and attention:
As you can see, red line higher than blue line. But don’t quote me on that. Throughout my highly funded study, Barry remained a versatile midfielder who doesn’t score goals, is approaching the point in his career when his skill set should start dwindling - a valuable contributor to any club, for sure, but not somebody who is going to dominate any matches.
If you asked Martin O’Neill who he would most readily do without when given the choice of Barry, Ashley Young, or Gabriel Abondelyour, it will be a very short conversation. Barry goes. The midfielder has more in common with Nigel Reo-Coker in terms of role, scope, and contribution than either Young or Abondelyour.
I don’t think he’s an £18 million player, but Martin O’Neill only needs to find one club to agree with that evaluation to make my view wrong. If some thought £19-£20 million was overpaying for Robbie Keane, what will they think when/if the Barry deal happens?
Speaking of the newest Red, let’s look at the same analysis done on possible-future-Barry-teammate Keane:
Keane’s overall contribution is higher than Barry’s (the guy did score 23 goals last year), but it’s still pretty far below 1 (whatever “1″ is supposed to mean here). The attention he’s received - otherwise known as red line - is dwarfed by Barry’s.
OK - I’m getting bogged down by this high-level, academic conversation Let’s leave all this science-talk for the journals and get back to the paper talk.
The drama behind the will-he, won’t-he entailed in the Gareth Barry saga has gotten out-of-control. He is clearly a good player, as evidenced by his increasing profile within Fabio Capello’s England men’s national team. In May’s international friendlies, he showed the potential to form a great partnership with Steven Gerrard, sitting deeper in midfield and jumping into the attack as opportunity dictates. He would fit in well playing behind a line of attackers featuring Gerrard, Ryan Babel, and Dirk Kuyt, working with Javier Mascherano and Xabi Alonso to bring the ball out of Liverpool’s end and into the attack.
While those were a lot of words dedicate to how Barry could help Liverpool, they are not words which apply exclusively to Barry. Somebody so inclined could make the argument that the aformentioned Reo-Coker, three years younger than Barry who Aston Villa last season for £8.5 million, casts a similar shadow. Is Gareth Bary worth upwards of £10 million more than Reo-Coker? Middlebrough’s Stewart Downing is a different kind of midfielder but is also three years younger, would be a very interesting addition given Fernando Torres, Keane and Gerrard to target, and would probably be cheaper than Barry. Sulley Muntari just moved to Inter for much less than £18 million. How nice would Muntari have looked in a midfield with Gerrard and Mascherano?
As the reports continue to come in about how Martin O’Neill does not want to sell, Barry wants to move, Liverpool’s tabled another offer, et cetera, remember the evidence: the charts in addition to the comparable players. If Liverpool were able to get this player they have sought all summer, where would have rank amongst their players? You’ve got Gerrard and Torres and Mascherano, the true heart of this team. Keane’s just been added, and Babel’s a young and promising starlet. Jamie Carragher’s got a special and important role on this team at the back. Barry, if he came, would blend in, not stand out. He would be the midfield Dirk Kuyt. It’s not like this is Frank Lampard we’re talking about here.
Step back and think about how absurd this Gareth Barry-thing has gotten. It will give you something comical (and positive) to associate with all those stories clogging up your RSS feed.
And now having written about this, I can delete all those items from my feeds.
Quotes
“Aston Villa can announce that Gareth Barry will be staying with the club following the interest from Liverpool over recent months. During discussions in the past few days, a final deadline to conclude this episode was set that all parties were aware of and agreed to. This deadline has now passed and so Gareth will remain with Villa.” - Aston Villa
“Naturally we’re all absolutely delighted that Gareth will be staying at Villa Park and relieved to find a resolution and closure to the saga.” - O’Neill
“We are still trying to sign the players that we need and if we need to sell someone now, OK, we will do so. If we can do it (the Barry deal) before the end of the transfer window, we will continue to try.” - Rafa Benitez, manager, Liverpool
Links
Barry refuses to give up on move
Barry the hatcher: A true Villain is born
Reds urge Barry to hand in request
Villa adamant Barry is staying
O’Neill tries to close door on Barry transfer
Barry’s Liverpool move still on
Barry staying at Villa after Liverpool run out of time
Villa declare Barry move to Anfield dead
O’Neill’s relief at Barry stay
Barry stays at Villa
Reds miss deadline to sign Barry
Villa call off Barry move to Liverpool
Barry staying at Villa
Villa claim Barry is staying
Villa claim Barry stays, despite Reds interest
Liverpool hold fresh Barry talks
Reds and Villa ‘agree Barry fee’
Villa end negotiations with Liverpool over Barry
Jul 11 2008
I liked the Cristiano Ronaldo, Ballon d’Or article enough to devote a little more time to it and post it to American Soccer Reader. It can be found here. In the wake of Euro 2008, a lot of Spain supporters excited about Iker Casillas or Fernando Torres winning the award have found the article. Hopefully, the readership at ASR will find the article as interesting.
Links
American Soccer Reader
Cristiano Ronaldo Could Lose Out on Ballon d’Or (ASR version)
Ronaldo Could Lose Out on Ballon d’Or (WFP version)
Jul 09 2008
The level of anti-Cristiano Ronaldo sentiment should not be underestimated, though if you ever find yourself doing so consider reports out of Italy today saying Iker Casillas and Fernando Torres are favorites for the Ballon d’Or - the most prestigious individual award in the footballing world. Torres certainly had an incredible season, and although I seem to have slightly less regard for Casillas than most, people who know a lot more than I do about the sport have given him tremendous credit for Real Madrid’s success.
Beyond their accomplishments during their club seasons, the capper to their Ballon D’Or resumé seems to be Spain winning Euro 2008. That is where I see the breakdown in logic.
If you grant that Ronaldo was generally considered to be the favorite for the Ballon d’Or at the end of the club season (and if you don’t, you can stop reading now) you have to ask if the performances of Fernando Torres or Iker Casillas in Euro were sufficient to bridge the gap between them and Ronaldo. For now, let’s just set aside the idea of defining what that gap was, and let’s also grant the Ronaldo’s one goal in three games performance for Portugal in the tournament did nothing to lengthen that gap.
Torres, until he scored the winning goal in the final, was generally derided for having a disappointing tournament, a view I completely disagree with (I named him to my best XI for the tournament). He was being substituted in each match, and while some questioned whether that was wise of Luis Aragones, some also advocated giving Daniel Guiza, Torres’s replacement, a greater role. While Torres may have decreased the distance between him and Ronaldo, this is not the resumé of a Ballon d’Or winner.
Then there is Casillas, who I also named to my Euro 2008 XI. Casillas’s shining moment was the penalty shootout win over Italy, but beyond that he was untested. The ten players Spain had in front of him made it a rather boring tournament for Spain’s captain, the pre-kicks Italy match included. Was that performance against Italy enough to bridge his gap from Ronaldo?
Whether you think Torres or Casillas deserve the award, you should allow that the shift in opinion that has happened over the last two months may be more about Ronaldo than either of these players who might win the award. Perhaps people have grown weary of the Real Madrid speculation. That’s understandable. Perhaps the voters look unfavorably on his style and the various eccentricities of his game. That is also understandable, but it is not fair to use these things as reason to change your view of Ronaldo’s performances. Ronaldo, being the front-runner for this award for so long, has been analyzed and scrutinized in a way Torres and Casillas have been able to avoid, and to withhold a vote for him because of that scrutiny can not be fair unless you wait six months to cast a vote and during that time hold Torres and Casillas to the same standards.
That basic unfairness is not the only problem I have with the Casillas and Torres candidacies. How did these two players get singled out to be the probables to benefit from Ronaldo’s star falling? It’s an easy question to answer. They are the players from the Spain team who best fit the standards for this award. Still, that Spain squad was defined by team-wide success that does not lend itself to this kind of individual award. How can you single out Torres or Casillas as being individual beneficiaries from the team’s performance when you see how Marcos Senna, Sergio Ramos, David Villa, Carles Puyol, and David Silva played?
What’s more, why is this being restricted to only Spanish players? If we are going to reconsider Ronaldo’s claim to the award, we should not let the achievement of a Spain side ill-suited towards individual recognition limit the candidates. When you compare Casillas’s resume to that of Edwin van der Sar, who looks better? Both won their club league, and although Casillas’s health during the season is a point in his favor (van der Sar missed time during Manchester United’s season with injuries), van der Sar had a much harder time of it in the Champions League than Casillas had in Euro 2008. Until the Netherlands was eliminated from Euro, van der Sar had outplayed Casillas and been one of the best goaltenders in the tournament.
And why isn’t Michael Ballack being considered? He was Chelsea’s best player, as well as Germany’s, and was a decisive force whenever he was on the pitch.
Van der Sar. Ballack. Casillas or Torres. It doesn’t matter. If what the stories linked below say is true, this award has become less about who will win it than making sure Cristiano Ronaldo doesn’t win.
I hope after the award is given, this write-up looks reactionary; however, I doubt I would have bothered if I didn’t feel that this scenario was possible.
Links
Cristiano Ronaldo Could Miss Out on Ballon d’Or (edited for American Soccer Reader)