It as another week of unspectacular picks for me in the Bundesliga, where a number of ties make it hard for me to get any traction. The highlight, for me, was hitting the Dortmund-Munich game on the nose, though that’s a bit of a disingenuous boast, as I didn’t anticipate Mark van Bommel getting red carded. I probably should have seen that coming, though. It was the easiest prediction of the week.

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Bayer Leverkusen, in getting their first win of the season, was one step ahead of Stuttgart all match.

Bundesliga Standings Rank Club GP PTS DIFF 1 Hoffenheim 2 6 4 2 Schalke 04 2 4 3 3 Hertha Berlin 2 4 2 4 Borussia Dortmund 2 4 1 5 Hamburger SV 2 4 1 6 VfL Wolfsburg 2 4 1 7 Bayer Leverkusen 2 3 1 8 VfB Stuttgart 2 3 0 9 Karlsruhe 2 3 0 10 Bayern Munich 2 2 0 11 Werder Bremen 2 2 0 12 Arminia Bielefeld 2 2 0 13 VfL Bochum 2 1 -1 14 1. FC Koln 2 1 -1 15 Frankfurt 2 1 -2 16 Energie Cottbus 2 1 -3 17 Hannover 96 2 1 -3 18 Borussia M’gladbach 2 0 -3 Results August 22, 2008 Hannover 96 0 0 Energie Cottbus August 23, 2008 Hoffenheim 1 0 Borussia M’gladbach VfB Stuttgart 0 2 Bayer Leverkusen Hamburg SV 2 1 Karlsruhe Borussia Dortmund 1 1 Bayern Munich Werder Bremen 1 1 Schalke 04 Hertha Berlin 1 1 Arminia Bielefeld August 24, 2008 1. FC Koln 1 1 Frankfurt VfL Bochum 2 2 VfL Wolfsburg Next Week Home Away August 29, 2008 Karlsruhe 1. FC Koln August 30, 2008 VfL Wolfsburg Frankfurt Borussia M’gladbach Werder Bremen Energie Cottbus Borussia Dortmund Bayer Leverkusen Hoffenheim Arminia Bielefeld Hamburg SV Schalke 04 VfL Bochum August 31, 2008 Bayern Munich Hertha Berlin VfB Stuttgart Hannover 96

The schedule gave us a special weekend in the Bundesliga, but those of us who follow the league will need to savor it. The great match-ups of this weekend are absent in the upcoming, third round schedule, after which the league will be off until September 12.

Horrible.

To bide the time, we will have to sit on what we learned from the Werder-Schalke, Stuttgart-Bayer, and Dortmund-Bayern matches.  Let’s start with the last one.

What we learned from the Borussia Dortmund-Bayern Munich match on Saturday is Mark Van Bommel is an idiot.  Bayern played almost the whole match with ten men because of van Bommel’s thuggery, and although I have read some comments in the days that followed his red card saying he is being singled out, that view is hard to justify.  Van Bommel clubbed a guy in the head.  If he is being singled out, it’s justly so.

Word that Bayern has warned the Dutchman he could lose the captaincy if he doesn’t stay on the field is good news.  It’s about time somebody starts taking his dirty play seriously, particularly the injury-riddled club that needs him.  Bayern got an unfit Luca Toni back, forming a surprisingly ineffective pair with Miroslav Klöse, but they need van Bommel to hold down thei defense.

Van Bommel got kicked out of the match with his team already down 1-0 and staring a five point deficit in the table straight in the face.  Thankfully, some suspect Dortmund defending gave Tim Borowski an easy equalizer in the second half.  Given the circumstances, it was a good point won for Bayern, though Dortmund should regret the lost opportunity to get to six points.

From the Stuttgart-Bayer Leverkusen match we learned that there is still a gap between Stuttgart and the top six clubs in the league, of which Bayer is apart.  Leverkusen came back after a disappointing loss in Round 1 to Dortmund to get a relatively easy win on the road, building on some of the momentum they had at match’s end the week before.

Leverkusen will be fine.  Stuttgart, although they are getting strong play in goal from Jens Lehmann, we can’t be so sure about.

From the Werder Bremen-Schalke 04 match, we learned that Schalke has lost too many players in midfield.  Playing without Jermaine Jones, Jefferson Farfan and Orlando Engelaar was too much to overcome.  The momentum of their wins over Hannover and Atletico Madrid could not overcome losing more than half of their five man middle.  Ivan Rakitic never got going, and Fabian Ernst had too much to manage in his holding position.

If Schalke can not get healthy for Wednesday’s match in Madrid, they will not make the group phase of Champions League, a somewhat unjust result considering how they played the preceding week.

From Werder Bremen, we learned they can get a result without Diego, something I doubted last week.  They did not get the win over Schalke, but without their best player - a player on whom they depend deeply - it was a point worth taking.  Diego will be back as Werder goes on the road to M’gladbach this week, a match which should be a nice re-introduction to domestic play for the Olympian.

Bremen also debuted Claudio Pizarro, who returned to the club on loan from Cheslea.  The team had a noticeable boost in energy, even if Pizarro was not particularly effective.  Still, he and Markus Rosenburg fronted an attack that continuously threatened Schalke.  Were it not for a player of the week-worthy performance from Schalke keeper Mathias Schober, Bremen would have gotten three points.

These three matches overshadowed the rest of the fixture list, but of note are the still undefeated Hoffenheim and Hertha Berlin.  Hoffenheim got a result at home against the still pointless M’gladbach while Berlin could only get one at home against Bielefeld.  Neither result is that impressive, and these two clubs have been beneficiaries of easy early schedules.  This weekend that starts to change when Hoffenheim goes to Bayer Leverkusen on Saturday and Berlin goes to Munich on Sunday.  My picks column isn’t until later in the week, but here’s a preview:  Berlin and Hoffenheim combine for no points this weekend.

With none of the league’s top clubs facing off against each other, expect this to be the week where the table starts to take shape.  We could see all of Bremen, Dortmund, Bayern, Schalke, Hamburg, and Bayer get three points.  If you’re put out by me not putting Stuttgart in the group, don’t worry.  They’re likely to win, too.

WFP Bundesliga Rankings

	Rank	Last Week	Club
	1	1	Schalke 04 You hate to see either Schalke or Atletico Madrid go out before the group stage, but the Champions League would be better for having Schalke. As is, I expect Schalke to be early favorites to win the UEFA Cup.
	2	2	Bayern Munich They get a little credit for clawing back against Dortmund with only ten men and with two key players still injured. Franck Ribery’s absence has been well reported, but the player they are really missing is Martin Demichelis.
	3	3	Hamburger SV A business-like win over Karlsruhe, who the book is still out on. Although teams below them played better, their resume is solid: a home win and a point at Munich.
	4	4	Borussia Dortmund Ultimately, they should have gotten more from their match with Bayern, being gifted the advantage by van Bommel. Their win over Leverkusen looks better, though, after Bayer showed so well at Stuttgart.
	5	5	Werder Bremen Even with Schalke’s injuries, it was an impressive result, and they showed a confidence without Diego that was absent the week before. They played much better at the back, limiting Schalke’s opportunities and controlling Kevin Kuranyi.
	6	6	Bayer Leverkusen Their ranking is unchanged, but there is a chasm between this spot an Stuttgart at seven how they controlled. They played this weekend as they did in the second half against Dortmund and got the corresponding result.
	7	7	Stuttgart Have the horses to beat up on the weaker clubs of the league, but against Leverkusen were frustrated and overmatched. It will be interesting to see if the return of Khalid Boulahrouz helps them compete for a European spot. They’re close.
	8	10	Hoffenheim The only perfect them in the league, but they have yet to produce a convincing result. They’ll have their chance this week against Leverkusen. They could lose that match and not fall in these rankings.
	9	8	Hertha Berlin Like Hoffenheim, good early results are built on schedule, not performance. Like Hoffenheim, will have a chance to prove otherwise this week. They face Munch.
	10	9	Arminia Bielefeld With Berlin without a loss and Bremen bouncing back, Bielefeld’s first two results look pretty good. It’s only two points out of six, but for a team that looked to battle relegation, points against good clubs are nothing to scoff at.
	11	12	Karlsruhe Lost to Hamburg but played decent enough to move up a little in these rankings. Unlike some of the clubs around them on the list, they have at least been tested, and although they came up short, they produced a decent result.
	12	13	Wolfsburg Were unimpressive against Bochum but still got a point. With their other result a win over Koln, it’s unclear what we have with this Wolfsburg team.
	13	15	VfL Bochum Showed signs of life against Wolfsburg, enough to were I almost dropped Wolfsburg behind them. Ultimately, they weren’t able to get three points despite playing on their home pitch. Looking decent can only count for so much.
	14	11	Hannover 96 Played in the most boring match of the weekend in a goalless drawn at home against Cottbus. I’m sure that’s what the Bundesliga wants from their Friday night matches.
	15	18	Energie Cottbus The other part of that Friday night disappointment. At least they were the road team. They have that excuse.
	16	14	Borussia M’gladbach Their 3-1 opening weekend loss to Stuttgart at home looks a lot worse now, and with their result this week, M’gladbach has little to recommend them thus far.
	17	17	Frankfurt Their only point has come from Koln. Ouch.
	18	16	1. FC Koln Their only point has come from Frankfurt. Ouch!

Schalke 04 exhibited a new, powerful approach during their 3-0 victory over Hannover on Saturday.

Bundesliga Standings Rank Club GP PTS DIFF 1 Hoffenheim 1 3 3 2 Schalke 1 3 3 3 Stuttgart 1 3 2 4 Hertha Berlin 1 3 2 5 Borussia Dortmund 1 3 1 6 Wolfsburg 1 3 1 7 Karlsruhe 1 3 1 8 Arminia Bielefeld 1 1 0 9 Bayern Munich 1 1 0 10 Hamburger SV 1 1 0 11 Werder Bremen 1 1 0 12 Bayer Leverkusen 1 0 -1 13 1. FC Koln 1 0 -1 14 VfL Bochum 1 0 -1 15 Borussia M’gladbach 1 0 -2 16 Frankfurt 1 0 -2 17 Energie Cottbus 1 0 -3 18 Hannover 1 0 -3 Results August 15, 2008 Bayern Munich 2 2 Hamburg SV August 16, 2008 Bayer Leverkusen 2 3 Borussia Dortmund Arminia Bielefeld 2 2 Werder Bremen Karlsruhe 1 0 VfL Bochum Schalke 3 0 Hannover Energie Cottbus 0 3 Hoffenheim Wolfsburg 2 1 Koln August 17, 2008 Borussia M’gladbach 1 3 Stuttgart Frankfurt 0 2 Hertha Berlin Next Week Home Away August 22, 2008 Hannover Energie Cottbus August 23, 2008 Hoffenheim Borussia M’gladbach Stuttgart Bayer Leverkusen Hamburger SV Karlsruhe Borussia Dortmund Bayern Munich Werder Bremen Schalke 04 Hertha Berlin Arminia Bielefeld August 24, 2008 1. FC Koln Frankfurt VfL Bochum Wolfsburg

When you stack their lineups against each other, Bayern Munich’s seems better, but it is surprising how much talent Schalke has. Announcing it to Europe in their Champions League challenge to Barcelona last season, Schalke is on the verge of transcending the perception of plucky, over-achieving club to league title contender. In round one of the Bundesliga campaign, they were the league’s best team.

Their 3-0 victory over Hannover did not do them justice.  Playing without high-profile summer acquisitions Jefferson Farfán (winger/forward from PSV Eindhoven) and Orlando Engelaar (holding midfielder from FC Twente) - both of whom were hurt in the middle of the week during the club’s impressive Champions League victory over Atlético Madrid - Schalke still exhibited the firepower that should make Bayern, who could have trouble with Farfán and Kevin Kurayni working together, scared.

Bayern limped to a tie against visiting Hamburg without Luca Toni, Franck Ribery and Martin Demichelis.  In round two, they play at a Borussia Dortmund team that confidently put three goals on Bayer Leverkusen in opening their season with a win.  If Bayern does not get healthy for their second match, they could find themselves four or five points behind a rolling Schalke 04 team that plays at a Diego-less Werder Bremen.

Four or five points may not sound like much, but in a Bundesliga that looks a little top heavy, the elite teams may face fewer teams capable of stealing points.  With four fewer matches in the Bundesliga season (compared to the big three leagues), a four or five point gifted Schalke now could be the type of thing Jurgen Klinsmann rues at season’s send.  And if there’s any club that knows about elite teams piling up points in the Bundesliga, it’s Bayern.

Werder Bremen was a near-elite last season (there was only one true elite last season), but without Diego they are a completely different team.  There may be no single player more important to his club than Diego, who is in Beijing for the Olympics.  Seeing them struggle to tie Arminia Beilefeld this weekend, Bremen’s desire to keep the Brazilian playmaker out of the Olympics suddenly made sense.  They weren’t involved in Champions League qualifying like Schalke or Barcelona, but even one match without Diego is a huge loss for this club, whose whole style of play is predicated on the young star’s ability to distribute.

Markus Rosenburg’s two surgical strikes helped Bremen get a point from a Bielefeld side that used the visitor’s wide-open style of play to their advantage.  Bremen is unlikely to alter their style for their match against Schalke, so expect Ivan Ratikic and company to have a big day.

In addition to Round 2’s Dortmund-Bayern, Bremen-Schalke headliners, Stuttgart hosts Leverkusen in another potentially defining match.  Stuttgart efficiently dealt with a Moenchengladbach team that, while having chances, lacked the firepower to play with Thomas Hitzlsperger and Mario Gomez.  Now Stuttgart hosts Bayer with a chance for a six point start.  If they get their win, Bayer will have gone without a point in their first two matches, an early hole for a team that has European aspirations.

There was bad news on the injury front from Round 1’s action.  Dortmund’s Dede, who gave Leverkusen so much trouble on Saturday, suffered a major knee injury and should be lost until spring.  And although Schalke has looked the league’s best team, their depth will take a major hit of midfielder Jermaine Jones, who missed almost all of last season with injuries, is out for more than just Wednesday’s Germany friendly.  Jones is doubtful for Joachim Low’s team.   The German-American midfielder is proving to be a vital cog in Schalke’s attack, running off of Kurayni and onto Farfán’s crosses, but any injury scare is twice as frightening for Jones, given his recent injury history.

World Football Postulant Bundesliga Rankings

As their result was injury related, there’s only so much I’m willing to drop Bayern, though they have looked poor all preseason. Likewise, I can only drop Werder so far, seeing as Diego is in Beijing.

With so many clubs who should finish in the top half of the table playing each other this weekend, a lot of teams have three points without being very high in my first rankings set. Those clubs have thirty-three more rounds to show me their value.

And just as was the case with the Ligue 1 rankings, this early in the season, the whole endeavor becomes worthless pretty quickly. We just need to have fun with it.

1. Schalke 04
2. Bayern Munich
3. Hamburger SV
4. Borussia Dortmund
5. Werder Bremen
6. Bayer Leverkusen
7. Stuttgart
8. Hertha Berlin
9. Arminia Bielefeld
10. Hoffenheim
11. Hannover
12. Karlsruhe
13. VfL Wolfsburg
14. Borussia M’gladbach
15. VfL Bochum
16. Koln
17. Frankfurt
18. Energie Cottbus

The Court of Arbitration for Sport, to which Barcelona, Werder Bremen, and Schalke had appealed FIFA’s ruling compelling the release of U23-eligible players for the Olympics, has sided with the clubs, ruling teams are not required to release their players for participation in the Games.  The CAS said that clubs have no legal obligation to release the players since the Games do not fall within the agreed to International Match Calendar.

The CAS did, however, encourage all parties to continue working towards an amicable solution.  Shortly after the ruling, both Werder Bremen and Schalke granted their players - Diego and Rafinha, respectively - permission to play.  Barcelona has not said whether they intend to follow through on their previous plans to call Lionel Messi back from Beijing.  Argentine coach Sergio Batista has said he anticipates Messi will stay with the team after joining them late last week.

Though it ruled in the clubs favor, the CAS said it will not mandate non-released players be banned from playing in the games.  The court said that their ruling does not effect the eligibility of any players who have already been entered by their national sides.  That interpretation puts the burden for upholding this ruling not on the International Olympic Committee, FIFA, or the country’s federation.  The burden falls upon the players, who would be in breach of contract should they defy their clubs in the face of the CAS ruling.  With Diego and Rafinha having now received permission to play, the only footballer in danger of breaching contract is Messi.

Argentina opens their Olympic tournament tomorrow against the Côte d’Ivoire.  Likewise, Brazil plays tomorrow, against Belgium.  Barcelona wants Messi back for their Wednesday Champions League qualifying match with Wisla Krakow.  Schalke will take on Atlético Madrid without Rafinha.

Barcelona had previously agreed to let Messi join Argentina should Barça have a comfortable lead after the first leg of their qualifying tie.  That compromise solution was offered before the CAS ruling and would have seen Messi join Argentina for the medal round.  It is unclear whether Barcelona would be willing to grant such a release in light of the CAS’s decision.

While Messi’s Olympic hopes remain in the balance, his gold medal dreams have not been the biggest loser of the saga’s denouement; rather, it is the sport’s governing body that has taken the biggest hit.

In attempting to flex his organization’s muscle and force through a U23-policy for the Olympics that defied his own organization’s International Match Calendar, FIFA president Sepp Blatter unwittingly walked into a club-versus-country fight, misjudging his adversary in the process.  All along, it was apparently that FIFA had overreached it power (and the tacit agreement it held with clubs) when it compelled player releases for a tournament that was not taking place in a release period.  It should not have been a surprise that clubs fought the ruling, nor should FIFA have been caught off guard that the CAS upheld a club view that relied on agreed-to timelines over FIFA’s logic of custom and spirit.  While it is disappointing that the Olympics have fallen so far in esteem that individual football clubs feel justified in withholding players from the tournament, the regulations backed club claims.

There was always a chance that the CAS would rule with FIFA and uphold tradition, but FIFA should have known the clubs would balk.  The European Club Association had been itching for a battle ever since it was late showing up to 6+5’s funeral.  The ECA was going to fight to the end, no matter what.  More than for questioning the Olympic ideal or maintaining control over a few players, the ECA saw this issue as one that spoke to the heart of who controls the footballing world.  To the ECA, the clubs have control.  In the fight to affirm that control, a fight the ECA was formed to win, the clubs have won Round 1.

Perhaps Blatter and the similarly inclined UEFA president Michel Platini will tread lightly next time they wish to butt heads with the clubs, seeing that this first battle was never about the players.  Werder Bremen and Schalke’s easy about-faces on Diego and Rafinha showed that.  It was about Blatter overstepping.  The next battle could be about a Platini-pushed debt-plan or one of Blatter’s club-controlling player restrictions.  The next battle could also be waged for Platini or Blatter’s jobs, with the clubs exerting pressure on their home federations to start looking out for the local interests in addition to contemplating which nation gets a major tournament.

The CAS’s ruling not only rebuffed Blatter and FIFA on the Olympics, it rebuffed the whole organization and marginalized it power by backing the clubs.  The clubs now know they have a track to follow in restraining FIFA.  That Blatter would ever let this battle come to this point was a huge tactical error.  Now FIFA’s lack of power is evident, splashed across every football site in the world.  Before it tripped into this fight,  FIFA’s impotence was a topic for message board conversation and football theorists with excessive time on their hands.  Had Blatter not engaged in this beguiling act of hubris and stuck to the letter of the law - or, better yet, worked with and not over the clubs - FIFA would today be stronger for having brokered a solution.

But today they are weaker, their most dangerous adversary is stronger, and the organization is left to fire verbal salvos referencing spirit and custom.  Even in that vein they have ceded the high road to Werder and Schalke, who have magnanimously released their players.  FIFA, in contrast, remains petulant.

Quotes
“The Court of Arbitration for Sport (CAS) has upheld the appeals filed by FC Schalke 04, SV Werder Bremen and FC Barcelona against the decision issued on 30 July 2008 by the Single Judge of the Fifa’s Players’ Status Committee that consequently has been set aside in its entirety.” - CAS
“The Olympic Football Tournament Beijing 2008 is not included in the Co-ordinated Match Calendar and there is no specific decision of the Fifa Executive Committee establishing the obligation for the clubs to release players under 23 for this tournament.” - CAS
“The requirements to justify a legal obligation of clubs to release their players for the Football Tournament Beijing 2008 on the basis of customary law are not met.” - CAS
“I’m calm and confident about this because I have spoken with the player and know what [Messi] is thinking. The player is going to make it clear to Barcelona that he wants to stay here.” - Batista
“In view of FIFA’s recommendation made to the clubs to release their players as well as of the Olympic spirit, the CAS call upon the goodwill and good sense of FIFA and the clubs to find a reasonable solution with regard to players who wish to represent their country in the Olympic Games.” - CAS
“We are confident and hopeful that [Messi] will remain here with the team for the whole tournament.” - Batista
“Fifa is surprised and disappointed by this decision, but we respect it.” - Blatter
“I regret that the CAS has not taken the Olympic spirit into consideration.” -  Blatter
“The Olympic Football Tournaments are a unique opportunity for a player as they are high-level competitions that give everyone involved - most notably young players - the chance to gain international experience that will stand them in good stead for the future.  It stands to reason, therefore, that it is not only the player and his national team who can benefit from such an experience, but also his club.” - Blatter
“I do not want to go into the legal side of all this, but I do know that [Messi] will be playing with us for the entire championship.” - Batista
“Theoretically the clubs could ask their players to go back to Europe because they would be entitled to do so.  And if the players do not come back there could be a case of a breach of contract.” - Matthieu Reeb, secretary, CAS
“It is now the moment for everyone to sit at the table and find a reasonable solution.  Of course, this could affect the tournament and it’s in the interest of nobody to destroy what could be an extraordinary tournament this year. But this is a matter for clubs, FIFA and the players to decide.” - Reeb
“We could have done with our strongest squad for these matches. We firmly believe, however, that unfortunately there is absolutely no point in bringing Rafinha back one day before our opening game.” - Andreas Muller, general manager, Schalke
“All the frustration and the huge disappointment he would feel, coupled with the exertions of travelling, would not in our opinion have put him in a position to play to the best of his ability.” - Muller

Links
Court blocks Messi from playing
Clubs win Olympic appeal
Fifa disappointed with CAS decision
FIFA disappointed by CAS decision
Messi wants to stay with Argentina - Batista
Clubs win appeal; Messi wants to play
Barcelona to decide Messi fate
German clubs release players for Olympics
Clubs U-Turn Over Olympic Brazilians
Blatter ‘Surprised & Disappointed’
Olympics: CAS steps in to stop players heading to Beijing
Trio wins Olympics appeal
European clubs win Olympic appeal

Brazil and Argentina clearly have the two best teams in the Beijing Olympics.

The men’s tournament, which starts tomorrow, has had a new spotlight shined on it by Argentina’s desire to defend their gold and Brazil’s quest to capture the one international honor that has alluded them.  With names like Lionel Messi, Ronaldinho, Javier Mascherano, Anderson, Sergio Agüero, Diego, Juan Román Riquelme, Alexandre Pato - this list can go on - football fans have not only had their previously dormant interest in the Olympic tournament fed, but visions of an Argentina-Brazil battle for gold tempts to be the highlight of our footballing summer.

Problem: that gold medal match-up is impossible.

Argentina being in Group A and Brazil in Group C, they are drawn to the team side of the medal round, meaning that if each side wins their quarterfinal match, they will meet in the semifinals.  One of Argentina and Brazil will go on to the gold medal match.  The other will be relegated to the bronze medal match.  The match-up of the summer will take place one step sooner than we would have expected.

It is hard to fault the Olympic organizer’s too much, as they had little way to know that Brazil and Argentina would field such strong squads.  Even if they did suspect players like Ronaldinho would be in Beijing, it would be stretching the idea of equity to gerrymander the draw.  It’s not like the Olympics have a UEFA-esque coefficient system to govern such things.  For anybody who wants to bemoan what will be an anti-climactic gold medal match, know there were no ready solutions, and that we are still likely to see Argentina-Brazil.

Or maybe that should be Brazil-Argentina, reversing the order, because if the pre-tournament friendlies are any indication, Brazil should be considered the prohibitive favorite.  In addition to wanting to win this tournament badly and having the deepest roster (it’s possible both Jô and Thiago Neves will not start), they Brazilians are playing very well.  In friendlies against Singapore and Vietnam, Brazil was sharp, and most encouraging:  Ronaldinho looks in-shape, in-form, and motivated.  He was a maestro in the opponent’s third, consistently creating opportunities for teammates and forming a dynamic midfield with Werder Bremen’s Diego.  Alexandre Pato or Jô will consistently get scoring chances, and even should they not be able to produce, Manchester United’s Anderson and Liverpool’s Lucas Leiva will be lurking outside the box ready to clean-up.

Argentina’s best chance against them in the semifinals will be exploiting an inconsistent center of defence.  Thiago Silva and Breno may be the most talent pair of center backs in the tournament, but against Argentina they will be tasked with stopping the two best strikers in La Liga.  Thiago Silva lacks the experience to contain Lionel Messi and Sergio Agüero, while the 18-year-old Bayern Munich protege Breno will be out of his depth.  If Riquelme and Mascherano can maintain some possession against Brazil’s deep midfield, the ball may be at Messi and Agüero’s feet enough to win the match.

That’s the formula.  It remains to be been whether it can be executed.  My prediction after the group-by-group.  In each group, each team plays the other once, with the top two finishers advancing to the medal round.  Wins are worth three points, ties worth one, with the tiebreakers being goal differential, then goals scored.

Group A

Argentina, Australia, Côte d’Ivoire, Serbia

The two best teams are Argentina and the Ivory Coast, with their match to take place tomorrow.  An upset by the Ivorians is not out of the question, though the loser may be better off in the long-run.  The second place finisher in this group be slotted opposite Brazil’s side-of-the-draw in the medal round, meaning an easier path to the gold medal match.  The best team from this group may end up with bronze while the second place finisher, if they can make it past the Netherlands, could win silver.  For those hoping for an Argentina-Brazil final, hope for a draw or loss to Côte d’Ivoire, which features a host of Europe-based players, most-notably Chelsea’s Salomon Kalou.

1.  Argentina
2.  Côte d’Ivoire
3.  Serbia
4.  Australia

Group B

Japan, Netherlands, Nigeria, United States

The toughest group in the tournament sees the Netherlands and Nigeria as favorites, though both the United States and Japan could advance.  There is no finishing order to this group that is out-of-the-question, and the sequence in which the teams play their matches could have a subtle, defining effect on who goes through to the medal round.

The Dutch bring an attack the features Liverpool star Ryan Babel along with Feyenoord’s Roy Maakay, one season removed from staring at Bayern Munich.  Their first match will be against the Nigerians, who bring Lokomotiv Moscow’s Peter Odimwingie as their overage striker.  The sleeper in this group, the Japanese, stand a good chance of advancing, being in good form and willing to out-work their groupmates in the conditions of Beijing.  If the Nigerians drop their opening match to the Netherlands, they could crash out with a let-down in their second match against the Japanese.

And then there are the Americans.  Top-to-bottom, this team can be seen as having as much talent as any in the group, and unlike many, they are relatively strong at the back.  They’ll be able to compete in each match.

It is still a very tight group, and when considering the individual, team-by-team match-ups, it looks like a tough draw for the United States.  They open against Japan, a team that can out-work anybody but may not get the best of the Americans in an opening match.  If the United States can survive that taxing match, they get the Netherlands in their second match, and the United States has a poor history against skilled European sides.  They will need strong play from their midfield to advance.

In the third game, they have an athletic Nigerian side which will give them problems, though I like them to get a result with the Nigerians having a tough first two matches.  Even with that result, I have the Americans finishing third in the group, a result which forces me to admit that may be overly cautious towards my home country.

The second place team from this group will be matched with the winner of Group A, likely Argentina.

1.  Netherlands
2.  Japan
3.  United States
4.  Nigeria

Group C

Belgium, Brazil, China, New Zealand

Brazil has the easiest group, which includes the host nation.  China is not an international footballing power nor would you expect their U23 side to advance if this tournament were being held in another nation, but defying many logical arguments, the host nation has a way of stepping-up to the occasion in these situations.  Given the expectations that are likely to be placed on all Chinese athletes, the host team should take their task much more seriously than either Belgium or New Zealand.  When China opens the tournament against New Zealand, the visitors may be overwhelmed.  Their match three days later against a Belgium team coming off a pasting from Brazil will determine whether they advance.

The second place team from this group played the winner of Group D in the next round.

1.  Brazil
2.  China
3.  Belgium
4.  New Zealand

Group D

Cameroon, Honduras, Italy, South Korea

Italy has only one overage player to Beijing:  striker Tomasso Rocchi. At this stage of the competition, it is unlikely to matter.  They look to advance with relative ease.  It will be slightly disappointing for Americans to see Giuseppe Rossi in Italian blue.

Their main obstacles will be a Cameroon and South Korea.  Korea, like Japan, will have to be taken seriously by each opponent lest they be run off the pitch.  Cameroon, with Arsenal’s Alexander Song at the back, may be the second most-talented side of the group, but the gap between them and the Koreans may not be enough to overcome what will be a highly organized opponent.

The two sides face each other tomorrow to open their tournaments, with the loser left hoping Honduras, the fourth team in the group, can take points from the other.  If the match ends in a draw, how close Korea and Cameroon can play Italy could determine who moves on, as will their willingness to build a goal differential over the Hondurans.

1.  Italy
2.  South Korea
3.  Cameroon
4.  Honduras

Medal Round

If the above predictions hold, the top half of the draw will see a Italy-China quarterfinal opposite Netherlands-Côte d’Ivoire.  China will end up looking like the beneficiaries of an easy group draw when matched-up against a squad of Serie A-experienced players.  Italy will advance to face the Netherlands, who will have a difficult time with Côte d’Ivoire (who I originally had winning at this stage) before their experienced scorers find their way through a suspect opponent’s back line.

In the semifinal match, the Italian’s overall team strength should see them through to the finals after a relatively easy draw.  They are clearly the best team in their group, will face an upstart host-nation in the quarters, and will have the Netherlands in the semis while the other half of the draw will feature a clash of the titans.  The Dutch will go to the bronze medal game with no easier task then the Italians.  Each side will face either Brazil or Argentina.

Brazil will be annoyed by but have no problem defeating the Koreans.  Argentina, however, will get a rematch with a Japanese side they had trouble with in pre-tournament competition.  I expect the defenders to get through, though, creating the match of the tournament.  I like Brazil to move on, with Argentina going to the bronze medal match.

Even deflated from missing out on a chance at the title, Argentina will defeat the Netherlands to claim the bronze.  It may be an uneventful match defined by a few moments of individual brilliance, but while they may leave disappointed, the 2004 gold medalists will not leave Beijing empty handed.

In the gold medal match, I am tempted to pick Italy, as I think they have the ability to exploit Brazil’s weaknesses in central defense.  With Rossi and overage Tomasso Rocchi as strikers and Robert Aquafresca as a third option, the Italians can make themselves dangerous.  I bring this up because Brazil is not know for consistently playing at their best, particularly under Dunga, as their current standing in World Cup qualifying can attest.

Given that Brazil’s roster construction and tournament goals go beyond their match-up with Argentina (even though the fans’ hopes for this tournament may not go much farther), I am not betting on a Brazil let-down after dispatching Argentina.  The program wants a gold medal to complete their trophy case.  There is little reason to think Italy’s Rossi-Rocchi combination more likely to exploit Brazil than Messi-Agüero.

I give the Italians a 2-in-5 chance of winning, so I wouldn’t be shocked Italy shocked the pundants.  I, however, will merely be wrong.

Gold: Brazil
Silver: Italy
Bronze: Argentina

After FIFA ruled today that clubs must release their U23 eligible players, Barcelona striker Lionel Messi will leave his club to join the Argentina Olympic team. In the interim, Barcelona will join in Schalke and Werder Bremen’s appeal of the Court of Arbitration for Sport, hoping FIFA’s ruling will be overturned. If that happens, Barça expects Messi to return. The striker has indicated he would, if such a ruling came down.

What the clubs are seeking is a ruling from the CAS that the players are in breach of their contracts by not reporting to the clubs.  Say the ruling goes their way.  Then what?  The ball goes into the player’s court, and while Messi seems willing to return to Barcelona should their claim be upheld, Schalke’s Rafinha and Bremen’s Diego have been willing to defy their clubs throughout the month.  Having gone absent without their release when the Brazil Olympic team went to Asia, what’s to say they will just return if the CAS says so in light of FIFA’s decision?

The clubs could cancel their contracts, but what good would that do?  Players as young as Diego and Rafinha are undoubtedly slightly underpaid in their deals.  Having proved themselves capable players in the Bundesliga, a small, profitable bidding war will start should the players hit the market.  Neither Schalke nor Bremen should want to let them go.

They could fine the players for being in breach of contract, but will that affect any kind  of remedy or change?

The clubs should be less concerned with the individual players and more with FIFA and the remedies at their disposal.  To their knowledge, they are only obligated to release players during the international match calendar’s release periods.  The Olympics fall outside one of those periods, yet clubs are still having players taken from them.  Instead of seeking to punish the players, let them play in the Olympics and instead start acting to limit the power of FIFA to unilaterally change these rules.

There is a  fine line between fighting the ruling, changing the system and aggravating your players.  The clubs have done a precarious  job of walking that line throughout this ordeal.  As this fight reaches its climax, clubs much be careful not to reach too far.  In the end, they need to let the players go and never let FIFA forget that they did.  In the four year between now and London, start pushing back against FIFA’s  ability to capriciously make similar decisions.

Quotes

“I hope [Diego] comes back to Bremen immediately because he has an agreement with Werder.  If he does not stick to it, then there will be consequences from the club.” - Torsten Frings, midfielder, Werder Bremen

Links

Messi heads to China after FIFA ruling
Barcelona may appeal Messi Olympic ruling
Frings Urges Diego To Return
CAS called in to settle Olympic dispute
Bremen and Schalke in new Olympics appeal
Bremen,  Schalke to fight FIFA’s Olympics ruling

FIFA ruled today that clubs must release their U23-eligible players for the Olympics in one of the most anticlimactic, predictable, and redundant pieces of news this summer.  This marked the third time that FIFA, in some form, had reiterated the stance that it had always held.  FIFA’s sanctioning the Olympics and, of course, is going to maintain its value.

Their reiteration does nothing to change the minds of Bundesliga clubs like Werder Bremen and Schalke who continue to maintain players need not be released.  The next step for them is to back-up their threat to appeal to the Court of Arbitration for Sport.  The clubs had already filed an appeal, but the CAS put it aside to wait for FIFA’s final decision.  It’s an appeal that seems unlikely to work, as the CAS is likely to nod towards FIFA and the stature of the Olympics, never mind that the clubs technically have a point.  The Olympics are not part of the International Match Calendar.

The best case scenario out of all this would have been for FIFA to not mandate the clubs but the clubs release their players.  That way, the issue doesn’t turn into a power play while those players who are selected to play get to participate.  The clubs and FIFA could then start working to ensure a potential confrontation is avoided for the Great Britian games in 2012.  As is, that confrontation is happening now.

The only club who may change their plans to withhold a player release is Barcelona, who seemed to be putting more weight in FIFA’s decision than the German clubs were.  Still, if Barça was so differential towards FIFA, Lionel Messi would be in Beijing now.  As is, he trains with Barcelona.

With the ruling today, FIFA risks looking more inept that they have throughout this process, remarkable considering the brashness with which the Bundesliga clubs and Barcelona have disregarded their rulings.  If, after taking this extra time to consider the issue and issue a dramatic, ultimate declaration, the clubs still defy FIFA, what does that say about the governing body?

The ball is now in the Barcelona’s court, as well as the European Club Association’s.  Expect them to persist in their views.  Barcelona seems willing to let Messi leave temporarily with the expectation he will return if a CAS appeal goes in their favor.

Quotes

“The single judge of the Players’ Status Committee, Slim Aloulou (Tunisia), decided today, 30 July 2008, that the release of players under the age of 23 for the Men’s Olympic Football Tournament Beijing 2008 is mandatory for all clubs. Previously, on 29 July 2008, the FIFA Emergency Committee also took a decision in the same sense.” - FIFA
“The single judge determined that the international match calendar is not of relevance in establishing whether clubs are obliged to release players for the Men’s Olympic Football Tournament.” - FIFA
“The single judge stated that taking part in the Olympic Games is a unique opportunity for all athletes of any sporting discipline, and that it would not be justifiable to prevent any player younger than 23 from participating in such an event if his representative team had qualified.” - FIFA
“I am waiting to see what FIFA says and, if it says I don’t have to go, I won’t go.  If it says I have to go, I will go without awaiting the decision of the CAS, because that would be too long for my teammates and squad management to have to wait.” - Messi
“Barcelona continues with its stance of not wanting to let me go and I understand it.  But I also think they have to understand that my dream is to take part in the Olympic Games with the national team.” - Messi
“FC Barcelona will shortly present before the CAS, or Court of Arbitration for Sport, an appeal against this decision in which it will request the ruling be rescinded and that proceedings be completed with the maximum speed possible.” - Barcelona
“At this stage we are at an impasse. We are going to meet with Messi to take the most convenient decision for both sides.” - Joan Laporta, president, Barcelona
“We understand it is very complex to retain a player. Messi will do what the rules say and I understand these will be interpreted in favor of Barcelona by CAS.” - Laporta
“From the beginning I’ve said that I want to play for my national team and I’ve never had problems until now.” - Messi

Links

FIFA rule clubs mist release U23 Olympic stars
Barcelona must release Messi for Beijing
Barcelona must release Messi for Beijing
Clubs must release U-23s for Olympics, says Fifa
Barca may contest Olympics ruling
FIFA demand Messi released for Olympics
Fifa rules against clubs for Olympics

Tomorrow, FIFA will make a ruling as to whether clubs will be compelled to release under-23 players for the Beijing Olympics in two weeks.  The ruling will from 20 days after FIFA ruled on whether clubs will be compelled to release under-23 players for the Beijing Olympics.

If you felt those two sentences redundant, consider it a comment on FIFA’s approach to this issue.  The governing body has already ruled once.  Last week, the body’s president, Sepp Blatter, reiterated the ruling via a statement, effectively ruling for a second time on the same issue.  Now, FIFA is set to make a third declaration on the matter, and unless the organization says something different, tomorrow’s statement will be as ineffectual as last week’s stance.

Whether you think FIFA will rule differently tomorrow than it did on July 10 depends on how important you think the events of the last week have been.  Clubs continue to fight some player released - most notably, Werder Bremen with Diego, Schalke with Rafinha, and Barcelona with Lionel Messi.  Diego and Rafinha have left their clubs without permission, prompting the clubs to threaten an appeal to the Court of Arbitration for Sport.  The European Club Association has issued as statement in support of clubs withholding permission, leaving FIFA’s rulings in a precarious position.  What good are an organization’s rulings if there is no means of enforcement?

That may be te reason why FIFA changes its tune.  With one week of the scenario having played out since Rafinha and Diego left their teams, FIFA may have read the writing on the wall.  Rather than make an unenforceable ruling that starts a fight it may not want with the clubs, FIFA may need to soften its stance.  FIFA may wish to advise clubs to release players while allowing for squads to retain players who are regulars in teams that will have competitions.  It’s a ruling that would ceded the issue to the clubs while maintaining FIFA’s view on what should be happening.

It is weak, but this may not be a fight FIFA wants right now.  They are getting a bit blind-sided by the clubs making such a big deal of these releases.  FIFA anticipated the releases to be a formality.  Not having done the due process of properly amending the international match calendar to include the Olympics, FIFA does not have a leg to stand on.

That this announcement has been delayed by a day may indicate some reconsideration on FIFA’s part.  There is a good chance there will be some kind of placating measure taken.  FIFA is not in a position to win this battle and needs to realize it, preparing itself better for future confrontations with the clubs.

Links

FIFA to announce final club decision on Wednesday
FIFA delay announcing Games release decision
FIFA delay announcing Games release decision

FIFA president Sepp Blatter has reiterated club’s obligation to release U23-eligible players for next month’s Beijing Olympic Games. His support for the governing body’s ruling comes as a number of Bundesliga clubs along with Barcelona seek to withhold their players from the games. Clubs say that the Games taking place outside any international window defined by the FIFA calendar. FIFA has ruled that the Olympics are a FIFA sanctioned event and club should uphold the standard of previous Olympiads in releasing their eligible, selected players.

Despite this ruling, some clubs continue to fight to keep their players outside the games in what is framing to be the first major battle between FIFA and the European Club Association (ECA). Barcelona is withholding Lionel Messi, who is elected to remain with his club. Brazil’s Diego and Rafinha have defied their club’s orders and joined up with the Brazilian team despite having no release from their clubs, Werder Bremen and Schalke. Today, ECA president Karl-Heinz Rummenigge said the club have no legal obligation to release players. Rummenigge is also president of a Bundesliga club, Bayern Munich.

In the face of that interpretation, Blatter has reiterated FIFA’s view, completing the stage for the face-off. In hindsight, we should have seen this confrontation coming weeks ago. There is no way the Bundesliga and the rest of the club footballing world would have picked such a relatively small fight without the intention of backing it fully. While I have questioned all along whether it was worth the club’s effort to try and keep players from Beijing, I’ve come to think this part of a bigger plan. The ECA is looking for an issue where the new organization can flex their considerable muscle. It’s first meetings came too late to hit 6+5 head-on (and it turned out no help was needed in maiming that measure), but this was the next issue. That they’ve elected to tackle it foreshadows an acrimonious relationship between ECA and FIFA that will see clubs try to reclaim some of the control they’ve lost of the footballing world.

It’s a clear warning shot for Blatter and UEFA president Michel Platini, both of whom have become far too ambitious in delving into matters the clubs hold dear. Like what they do or not, clubs still control a vast majority of the sport’s money. A confrontation with a united, committed ECA is a fight the governing bodies can not win. While Diego and Rafinha may go to Beijing and be welcomed back to their teams, clubs are making their point clear. The next time something like this comes up - FIFA trying to make ad hoc rules as to when players are committed to national teams - the ECA will fight.

Quotes

“The release of players below the age of 23 has always been mandatory for all clubs. The same principle shall apply for Beijing 2008.” - Blatter
“It would appear to be against the spirit of the Olympic regulations to hinder players under the age of 23, who are actually the core of the squads participating in the Men’s Olympic Football Tournament, to take part in the final phase of the event.” - Blatter
“We’re a little bit frustrated by the fact that [Jô's] gone to the Olympics, ideally we’d have preferred him to stay with us, but we have to respect that.” - Mark Hughes, manager, Manchester City FC
“As the Olympics are not included in the harmonised International Match Calendar, the obligation to release players for national team matches according to the FIFA Regulations on the Status and Transfer of Players does not apply.” - Rummenigge
“The ECA suggests that FIFA president Sepp Blatter should define clear guidelines and regulations in consultation with the IOC regarding subsequent Olympic Games, once the current framework for the Olympic football tournament expires.” - Rummenigge
“[The ECA supports] all clubs that currently face losing important players.” - Rummenigge
“Even if Mr Blatter is president of FIFA, his remarks are still purely arbitrary. It doesn’t change our view. We’ll wait for the CAS ruling. FIFA is forcing clubs and players into breach of contract.” - Andreas Müeller, sporting director, Schalke
“As in previous letters from FIFA, president Blatter bases his comments in principle on custom and practice, and the special charter of the Olympic tournament. But in the view of our federations, the DFB and the DFL, this letter has no binding character whatsoever.” - Klaus Allofs, sporting director, Werder Bremen

Links

Blatter reminds clubs of rules
Barcelona Plan to Keep Messi - Report
Blatter: Release of U23s for Beijing mandatory
Fifa - player release mandatory
Blatter: Clubs must release players for Olympics
Blatter: Let Messi Go!
Blatter tells clubs to release under-23s for Olympics
Blatter reaffirms Olympic obligation
Clubs must release players for Olympics - FIFA

As of yesterday, Werner Bremen thought midfielder Diego would be joining them for preseason training, rejecting the Brazil Olympic team in the process. One week ago, when Bremen told Diego they would deny his release, he said that he would respect the club’s decision.

Now, as Brazil leaves for the Olympic games, it looks like the talented midfielder has changed his tune. He has skipped his club training assignments to meet up with his national side in Paris, where the team will leave for Beijing today. Diego follows Schalke’s Rafinha in defying his club’s wishes and joining up with his Olympic team.

Schalke is now considering legal action against Rafinha for breach of contract, a move that is unlikely to work considering the role FIFA plays in this saga. FIFA has said clubs are obligated to release U23 players, and while the clubs can appeal to the Court of Arbitration for Sport, it is unlikely the CAS will look favorably on clubs’ defiance of FIFA while relying on other FIFA regulations. You can not pick and choose which FIFA regulations and ruling to follow.

Whether Werner Bremen take Diego’s absence to such extremes, or fine him 25,000 euros per day as Schalke is prepared to fine Rafinha, is unknown. Bremen is said to be disappointed and considering referral to the sports tribunal, but at some point these clubs have to realize how ridiculous this is. They may have a point. These players have a contract that does not explicitly include allowance for Olympic service. But what are the costs and benefits of this solution, of going to court? The benefit is the marginal improvement over a handful of games from the player’s replacement to the player. In a sport like football, where there is as much of a distribution of responsibility as in any team sport, the benefits of improving one player to another sometimes don’t get seen until you add up the small, per-game benefits of a while season. The benefits are at best small.

The costs, however, seem much bigger. How are Diego or Rafinha supposed to look favorably on their clubs after this? How if the Brazilian Federation supposed to recommend a player choose Werner Bremen or Schalke?

The clubs may feel like they need to take a principled stand on the invasion of FIFA into their club’s business, but the timing is all off. This stand should have been made far before the Olympic teams were announced. Clubs should have been proactive in alerting FIFA to the issue and not take a reactive stance. Because they have waiting until they brink and are resorting to measures like tribunals, the clubs seen tyrannical.

If the clubs really feel Rafinha and Diego are in breach of contract and are so unreliable, just cancel the players’ contract.  I’m sure Rafinha and Diego will be fine.  Of course, neither club will do that, which speaks to the value each player has for their club.

Quotes

“[Rafinha] has breached his contract at Schalke.” -  Andreas Muller, sporting director, Schalke
“If the CBF (Brazil Football Federation) does not respect our wish, we’ll file legal action at the CAS.” - Muller
“We support the protest and we share the opinion of the clubs that they are not obliged to release players …” - German Football Federation (DFB)
“Diego feels obliged to join Brazil’s team in Paris. He fears not showing up would jeopardise his future career for Brazil.” - Klaus Allofs, sporting director, Werner Bremen

Links

Diego defies Bremen ban
Rafinha, Diego join Brazil without permission
Diego defies Werner orders, heads for Olympics
Diego Off to Bejing, Schalke Still Fuming
Schalke file Rafinha complaint in Olympics row
Werner Bremen in legal action against Olympic runaway Diego