World Football Postulant

While Real Madrid has been making transfer headlines all summer, few have noticed that they have done little to improve their team.  In fact, it seems they have taken some steps backwards.  Now I agree Rafael van der Vaart is a great signing, but they’ve lost Wesley Sneijder to injury, have yet to get Fabio Cannavaro back, have an aging core, and are on the verge of losing Robinho.  Beyond that, you can ask if Casillas can play better than he did last year, or is it even reasonable to predict such performance?

Madrid is coming back to the pack.  The question is how much other teams have done to catch-up.  Barcelona has also been in the news all summer, but they made as many meaningful changes than Madrid.  Van der Vaart is going to play immediately and regularly for Real.  Is Alexander Hleb really going to unseat anybody in Barcelona’s lineup?  Doubtful.  Daniel Alves does, however, give them another dimension on the right, and he has a track record in La Liga.  Barça’s main issue is getting the talent they have playing to its potential.  As you can see to the right, I do believe that Pep Guardiola can so it.  At a minimum, he will instill a pride in performance - in the shirt the players are wearing - that will help resolve some of the inconsistencies we saw last season.

With apologies to Villareal, the other major title contender is Atletico Madrid.  They have made major improvements in goal prevention, bringing in Paulo Assuncao and Tomas Ujfalusi.  I love these signings and think Atletico can have on of the better defenses in La Liga.  Their strength and depth in midfield can help control matches against the slightly more talented teams, and the addition of Andre Sinnema Pongol should mitigate the effects of any regression by Diego Forlan.  If only one of them can help carry the load with Kun Aguero, this can be a historical season for the Atleti.

After the top five, I see a huge drop, and although my method ended up with Getafe in sixth and back in Europe, any team between sixth and fifteenth could end up qualifying for the UEFA Cup.  I don’t see much difference between Getafe and, say, Racing, who I’m picking at eleventh.  The things which will distinguish these clubs come May are those which I can not predict.

At the other end of the table, La Liga might have the most uninspiring set of promoted teams of all the league’s I’ve previewed.  This is the first of the six league’s I’ve looked at where I wonder how any of the three will stay up.  But, as I looked at some of the lower-table teams from last year, I did find one candidate that could make a promoted side’s season a success.  Osasuna, who finished seventeenth last season, took some positive steps forward and, as is often the case in these stories, were not as bad as they showed last season.  Recreativo, however, I wonder about.  I don’t see much to recommend them, and the regressions I see put them in a place where they should be worried.  They finished higher than they should have last season, the kind of fortunate you can not bet on from year-to-year.

One team everybody will be looking at after this summer’s European Chmapionships is Valencia.  The Davids (Villa and Silva) will continue to make the team dangerous, but as was the case last season, they will still have problems keeping the ball out of their own net.  Until they prove they can do that from game-to-game, they will continue to be a dangerous but inconsistent team, capable of winning shootouts while getting into too many.

In the end, I see this as the season Barcelona regains the crown.  I think they have done enough to mitigate their inconsistencies at the back to become the team that is most ready to take advantage of Real Madrid’s turn to mortality.  Guardiola will be hailed as a savior, and Joan Laporta may be vindicated.  Meanwhile, if these results come true, we may be left wondering who will replace Bernd Schuster and Ramon Calderon at the Santiago Bernabeu.

Contracts may not mean much in the footballing world, but the signing of them can send messages. When David Villa signed his contract with Valencia today, a deal with runs through 2014, the message was clear. Villa will not be moving before September 1.

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If I had to bet, I would put money on Tottenham being without David Villa come September 1.  Still, there is an awful lot of smoke around these rumors for there not to be fire.  But the sticking points in my mind:  the current club says they’re not selling, and the player and his representation are being coy about it all.  This seems more Juande Ramos trying provide a cash catalyst to the situation.

Perhaps Ramos and Ramon Calderon went to some seminar together in the spring?

Today, new rumors come from reliable sources.  Tottenham is set to offer £32 million for David Villa.  The sale of Dimitar Berbatov would fund the transaction, with the Bulgarian to be moved for £30 million.

That reported chain of events should raise doubts as to the veracity of the rumors.  Who is going to pay £30 million for Berbatov?  The reports make it seem like not only will somebody do it (Barça?), but they have confirmed this to Spurs, who are only waiting to find another striker to finalize the Bulgarian’s signing.  And yet Berbatov still plays in the preseason games, as he did this weekend.  So beyond the fact that Valencia seems ill-disposed to selling their striker, there are problems with this story.

If somebody has confirmed they want to buy Berbatov for £30 million, why wait?  Spurs didn’t wait to sell Robbie Keane to Liverpool, were willing to create a hole in their linep (which, thankfully, Darren Bent has filled nicely), and now Zenit St. Petersburg is holding Ramos over the coals on Andrei Arshavin’s price.

The same rumors that have Spurs making a new, record-setting bid for Villa have them staying in the picture with Arshavin.  It is all very fantastical, but I refuse to doubt anything Spurs-related after they improbably sold Robbie Keane and then decided David Bentley was a good fit.   Just as I may be proven wrong on Bentley, I may be proven wrong on Villa, and the Spain international could be in London by the end of the month.

The move makes sense if Valencia is you think the reports of their debt problems are accurate.  I never know what to trust with those stories because there are so many different ways clubs can elect to report their debt that I always feel like I’m on the end of a marketing campaign.  If Valencia were inclined to see Villa, though, wouldn’t they have done it a month ago, when Villa’s value was sky-high after Euro 2008 and they could spend the next month using the proceeds to procure a replacement?  With their UEFA Cup campaign about to start and a reasonable expectation they will compete for a UEFA Cup (or even Champions League) spot for next season (as well as wanting to defend the Copa del Rey), how does now doing an about face on Villa make sense?

As you can tell by my inane use of questions as writing devices, I don’t think it does.  All this smoke we’re seeing it just that: smoke.  That said, he would fit rather nicely in North London.

Quotes
“David likes London and likes how Spurs play under Ramos. If they present an offer, Valencia will seriously study the subject.” - Jose Luis Tamargo, agent, Villa
“Valencia CF has made no agreement nor are they involved in any negotiations to transfer David Villa and David Jimenez Silva to any club in Spain or abroad.” - Valencia
“It is completely untrue. I have informed both the players and their agents in an official and clear manner that the firm intention of the club is for both of the players to stay with us and see out their contracts.” - Valencia

Links
Tottenham eyeing £60million triple swoop?
Spurs reportedly prep $80M mega-bid for Villa
Spurs set for record breaking swoop
Valencia furious over Villa-Silva sale claims
Valencia determined to keep stars
Valencia want to keep Spanish stars Villa and Silva
Soriano vows to keep stars at Valencia

Juande Ramos came to White Hart Lane representing a complete change in attitude, one that would emphasize a more free-flowing but technical brand of football. He would bring the best parts of his La Liga background (the skilled and technical play) and merge them with what the Premiership is known for (speed, pace, and athleticism). In bringing in Luka Modric and Giovani Dos Santos, Ramos seemed to underscore that message. If nothing else, Spurs would be quicker and more skilled in attack.

To a certain extent, this justified the sale of Robbie Keane. Yes, Keane wanted to leave, but part of what lessened the blow was knowing the money Liverpool would give for him could be put towards Ramos’s renovation. Keane is a great player who could fit in anywhere, but would he play as well off of Modric and Dos Santos as a David Villa or an Andrei Arshavin? Keane is not quite as good a fit for this new approach as Dimitar Berbatov, who may still be able to be convinced to stay on at North London should sufficient talent be brought in and he was the key in pushing the back line.

That plan, in the moments after Keane was sold, seemed to be coming into place. Rumors of Valencia’s willingness to talk David Villa surfaced. Diego Capel from Sevilla had indicated a willingness to soften his stance on not leaving this season. Thiago Neves as still out there, and Andrei Arshavin’s agent had confirmed contact between Tottenham and Zenit.

With so many possibilities out there that would continue the revitalization of Juande Ramos’s team, it was disappointing to see such a conventional move to capture David Bentley. I think Bentley is a fine player, but Spurs must value him much higher than I do, because the reports of £15 to £17 million to capture the right midfielder almost completely exhausts their Keane money. They are still lacking a striker unless they want to move Dos Santos into that role, something which does not seem their Plan A as they continue their Arshavin pursuit today.

There are some that would trade Keane for Bentley plus three to five million pounds. I would not. Even if you grant Bentley the better player of the two, it’s unclear he is the better player for Tottenham. Many of the traits listed in the first paragraph that Ramos has explicitly or implicitly sought throughout the summer are absent from Bentley’s game. He is not the fastest or most athletic player, nor does he play at a great pace. As the featured player in Blackburn’s attack he was able to score five goals and direct pass onto eleven others, but with Modric slated to be the maestro for Spurs, Bentley becomes a role player - a specialist. He will play on the right, cross to Berbatov (should the Bulgarian be kept), take set pieces and corners. Tottenham has just paid over £15 million for a player who will struggle to keep up with the rest of the team and be relegated into a secondary contributor’s role.

That paragraph may be a bit harsh on Bentley. He may come into his own for Tottenham, but I just don’t see it. Even if Ramos thinks Bentley will shine, when you spend £15 to £18 million you should not have to wish improvement. For that money, you should not be banking on a player whose value to your team is unclear to a random, football-crazy blogger. At that price, some things should be clear.

Ramos should have pushed harder for Diego Capel.  He’s cheaper.  He’s younger.  He’s better.  He will improve more.  He fits in better with what Ramos has said he wants to do.  There is a dynamism to Capel’s game which Bentley will never have.  He is not as good on crosses and set-pieces as Bentley, but if Berbatov moves, Tottenham will not have anybody to target.

Whereas Bentley is a star player for mid-table clubs, Capel will eventually be able to play and star for the best clubs in the world.

Perhaps Sevilla was being too demanding (if they were willing to move him at all), but if reports over the last week were any indication, there was room between player and club for Tottenham to step in.

If they couldn’t get Capel, they should have left the money available to acquire the supporting striker they need. The worst outcome in paying top-dollar for Bentley is not acquiring a less-than-ideal player. Bentley will be fine, but if the fee sent to Blackburn forces a compromise on the striker they need, the one positive from last year about Spurs (their attack) will have been compromised to get the England international.

Spurs fans wait with a cautious optimism, electing to look more at the striker they’re rumored to get than at Bentley, who all the supporters can live with. But instead of looking at that striker, Spurs followers should take a moment to look towards Sevilla and Diego Capel. Even though he plays the opposite side of midfield, he was still a better fit.

This article will be revised for publication on American Soccer Reader later tonight.

Quotes

“Tottenham Hotspur plc is pleased to announce that agreement has been reached with Blackburn Rovers for the transfer of the registration of the England international midfielder, David Bentley, age 23 years, to Tottenham Hotspur FC for a total consideration of 15 million pounds and up to an additional two million payable upon future performances. The player’s contract is for a period of up to six years.” - Tottenham
“I am calm and I am only thinking about succeeding here (Sevilla) at the moment.” - Capel
“The only way that things could change would be if another club and Sevilla came to an agreement.” - Capel
“For sure everybody wants to grow as a footballer, I’m at a great club, but you always have better objectives.” - Capel
“I know there’s something, but Sevilla trust me and I owe them for this confidence.” - Capel
“I had my heart set on Tottenham and I didn’t think about going to any other club.” - Bentley
“I’ve come here with a big price tag and I have to repay Tottenham with all of my heart.” - Bentley
“There are a lot of good players here, you look at (Luka) Modric, Giovani dos Santos and I’m looking forward to fitting in the side somewhere.” - Bentley
“I’m sure he will bring the best ability to our team and we can help him maximise his potential.” - Ramos
“Working under someone like Ramos is great. He’s going to get the best out of me.” - Bentley
“I’ve got a lot of respect for him for what he’s achieved. I’ve talked a lot to the other players about him and I’m sure he’ll push me on to the next level. He’s really good.” - Bentley
“Gazza was my favourite player, all my mates are Tottenham fans and there’s a piece of my heart at this club.” - Bentley
“We can do anything we want and anything we put our minds to. We’ve got a great manager and you can see what he did last season.” - Bentley

Links

Capel not seeking sale
Capel Leaves Next Move In Sevilla’s Hands
Clubs will decide my fate - Capel
£12.5m winger wants to join Spurs
Diego Capel coudl still move to Tottenham
Capel considering Sevilla exit as Spurs hover
Capel confirms Tottenham interest
Sevilla winger reveals Spurs contact
Spurs complete Bentley signing
Spurs unveil Bentley
Bentley says his heart is at Tottenham
Bentley eyes top four spot
Bentley transfer details announced
Spurs splash out on brand new Bentley
Tottenham complete Bentley signing
Tottenham confirm £15m six-year deal for Bentley
Spurs unveil Bentley

The idea of Andrei Arshavin moving from Zenit St. Petersburg to Tottenham in the wake of the Robbie Keane sale has reached an explicit stage, with Arshavin’s agent speaking about Spurs specifically.

Dennis Lachter downplayed the idea that a move is close, but he did continue that Spurs continue to talk to Zenit about the Russian Prince.  He confirmed that Zenit maintains a high price for Arshavin (though it has reportedly dropped slightly) and the gap between it and what Tottenham wants to pay remains significant.

The angle of the story that nobody is talking about is Arshavin’s change of heart as it concerns Spurs.  Arshavin had some negotiations earlier this summer with Spurs before his Euro 2008 explosion, after which he seems to indicate Spurs was not a big enough club for him.  But after Barcelona tried to low-ball Zenit and no other top-tier clubs tabled offers, Arshavin’s decided that a move to London an Tottenham is better than stay with Zenit.  At least he gets to move to the Premiership, and there are far worse clubs you could be at than Tottenham.

If Arshavin’s reticence to move to Italy wasn’t such an issue, AS Roma would also be a possibility.  Roma is an elite club, will be playing in the champions league, has players like Francesco Totti and Daniele De Rossi, and is a serious threat for their league’s title.  Rome is a beautiful place and Italy has some appreciation for Russian culture.  Still, Arshavin has been adamant that he does not want to move to the Serie A.

At this point, Zenit can hold out, knowing that Tottenham has played their hand in selling Keane.  Daniel Levy wants everybody to believe that Spurs had no choice but to sell, but it’s unlikely the situation is as simple as “mighty” Liverpool forcing Tottenham’s hand.  Spurs acted too early on a deal that could have done as a handshake until they got Arshavin, David Villa, or Thiago Neves.  Now Zenit, who is willing to lose out on an Arshavin deal for asking too much, can exact their fee from Tottenham.  It’s unlikely with Valencia or Fluminense will be selling their target at a discount.

Quotes

“At this point there is some talks with Tottenham, but nothing complete because of the high fee Zenit want for Andrei.” - Lachter
“The gap is huge between the two clubs as Zenit are looking a lot of money for Andrei.” - Lachter
“Juande Ramos very much wants to sign Andrei as he is his number one target and Daniel Levy is doing everthing to make the deal, but it is difficult to agree a fee with Zenit.” - Lachter
“Andrei has made it known he wants to leave Zenit and the player has made his decision - he would like to go to Tottenham.” - Lachter

Links

Spurs in Arshavin talks
Arshavin itching For Spurs Move - Agent
Arshavin agent cools Tottenham talk
Spurs in talks with Arshavin

At first I wasn’t going to post anything about this, but I can’t get it out of my mind.  Over the last two days, with Thiago Neves and Andrei Arshavin being linked with White Hart Lane, I’ve joked that every player with a pulse has been said to be talking about a move towards Tottenham.  Then a couple of minutes ago I started reading reports of David Villa moving from Valencia to Spurs.

This is getting insane!  The most insane part, though:  One of these moves will happen.

Right now, players are using Spurs as a stepping stone to a true first tier club.  Perhaps Spurs will break into the top four this season and be considered an elite team next season, but right now they’re not.  Clubs and agent are using the interest and rumors they’re generating to renegotiate deals or create an urgency with the clubs they really want to move to.  But at some point, after the player market starts thinning out, Spurs will become frustrated by their failings and completely overspend for some name, any elite name that will lend credibility to all these pursuits.  It might be Arshavin.  It might be Neves, or it might be Villa.  But I have a feeling it will be somebody.

Until that point comes in two or three weeks, we will have to deal with the insanity of a new star, each day, being linked to Spurs.

Fun.

Quotes

“Many clubs have contacted me to ask about the chances of a player who is guaranteed to score goals in England. I am convinced that if Spurs were to present an offer to Valencia, they will study the subject.” - Jose Luis Tamargo, representative of David Villa

Links

Spurs bid for Villa?
Villa To Be A Hotspur

A pulled leg muscle will keep David Villa out of Spain’s lineup for Sunday’s final.  For many reasons, this is sad news.  The guy’s coming out party gets cut short.  He now loses his chance at Player of the Tournament.  Spain will not be at full strength for the final.

Luis Aragones will almost certainly go to the 4-5-1 we saw after Cesc Fabregas subbed in for Villa today.  Fabregas had two assists, gave the team a spark, and has been as good a player as any Spaniard in Euro 2008 (when he’s on the pitch).

I don’t know if there is necessarily good for Germany.  Their main problems are going to be products of Spain’s advantage in midfield (possession, congestion, speed, transitioning out of their end).  This only makes it worse, with Fabregas likely to play deeper than Villa would have.

Of course, having said all this, Arargones will start David Guiza.

Links

Villa out of final

Spanish striker likely to miss Euro final

Villa out of Euro 2008 final