World Football Postulant

One of the more exciting days of the European club football season is the day the Champions League group stage is drawn.

The 32 teams that have qualified for the group stage are drawn into eight, four-team groups.  Before that happens, all teams are broken into four pots, labeled A through D, where they are grouped according to a team’s strength (as determined by a formula called a coefficient).  Each of the eight groups can have no more than one team from each pot, no more than one team from a country.  The eight groups end up pretty even.

The draw is fun because you end up with a series of matches which, in addition to being high profile based on the quality of the teams involved, are rare.  In the days before the draw, you start considering the possibilities and potential story lines:  Chelsea and Fiorentina in a group, forcing Adrian Mutu to play the club he owes £14 million; Marseille being slotted with Arsenal months after having sold them Samir Nasri, and potentially getting Bayern Munich in the group, so they would have to face Franck Ribery; Barcelona being slotted with a Zenit St. Petersburg team whose star, Andrei Arshavin, so badly wanted to play at Camp Nou; FC Porto being grouped with Inter Milan and facing Jose Mourinho.

Here’s how the eight groups ended up being drawn, with the clubs listed in order of the group they were drawn from:  A to D.  Continue Reading »

I wrote a recap of the particulars for American Soccer Reader.  You can see it here.  The only detail left is how much Tottenham paid for their new striker.  The figures I have seen to this point are £14 million to £16 million with no sources reliable enough to quote.  At this point, it looks like it does not matter.  Roman Pavlyuchenko is moving from Spartak Moscow to Tottenham with a significant ripple effect.

Continue Reading »

Two months of the Andrei Arshavin saga will end next weekend when the international transfer window closes, but unless Zenit St. Petersburg shows some new-found willingness to compromise their position, that window may as well be closed now, as it concerns Arshavin.

On the club’s web site, Zenit announced that they will not be selling Arshavin.  They were unable to come to an agreement with Tottenham, who the player and agent had zero’d in on as Arshavin’s best chance of moving this summer.  Wanting two weeks to replace the Russian Player of the Year, the inability to get the deal done today has Zenit convinced not to sell him.

Continue Reading »

Zenit St. Petersburg star Andrei Arshavin has gone on strike.

Arshavin and his representation have been working overtime to secure his transfer to Tottenham Hotspur, but Zenit is not wavering in their demand of top dollar for their best player. On the contrary, Zenit’s demand seems to be going up, with their near £22 million demand of last month having morphed into a reported £27 million figure now. Tottenham has never gotten close to the £22 million figure, let alone the £27 million one quoted below.  Like Martin O’Neill’s continued pushing of Gareth Barry’s fee, this is doing nothing to foster a deal (which might be exactly the point).

In response, Arshavin has refused to play. The Russian Prince sat on the sidelines as the current league champions bowed out of the Russian Cup with a 1-0 less of Sibir Novosibirsk, a team from outside the Russian Premier League. With Zenit finally pushing out of the cellar and climbing to within shouting distance of first place Rubin Kazan, Arshavin’s strike comes at a critical time in the season. Zenit now sides in seventh pace, just outside of European football qualification, eight points back of the league leaders. With the team’s other scoring threat Pavel Progrebnyak continuing to battle injury concerns, Arashvin’s absence will be felt.

Arshavin’s agent was scheduled for a meeting with the club president today, as he continues to go back and forth between St. Petersburg and London clubs, trying to broker a deal. Zenit’s president, however, canceled the meeting, an apparent reminder to agent, player, and buyer that the club will not be forced to sell. It leaves the sides in a situation out of some kind old, perverse Soviet fairy tale - the player on strike, the owners not talking to the player. Now it is a game of who will blink first, and if the club, which has never been inclined to sell, does not have a change of heart, Arshavin will have to come back to the team before Zenit even considers a sale. Zenit seems hell-bent on not being bulldozed by the player, even if it means compromising their season.

In the interim, Tottenham is forced to use Darren Bent, having already sold Robbie Keane. That looks fine thus far, even though their first real match is still over a week away. They are also unable to see Dimitar Berbatov, to Manchester United or anybody else, not having sufficient players up top. Juande Ramos and Spurs can not be held hostage while Arshavin and Zenit work through this. If they want to be confident in being a top seven team, possibly challenging the top four, it’s time to move on.

If that’s how this is to play out, the only good Arshavin’s strike will do is to end the saga. Unfortunately for him, it will end with him staying in St. Petersburg.  In the words of Arshavin’s agent, commenting after the Zenit president canceled the meeting, the chances of the Russian Prince moving to London now seem “very, very weak.”

Quotes

“This is the Russian way.  Nothing will change because this is the old Soviet Union way. For the Russian sports establishment the desires of a player mean absolutely nothing. They are the big bosses. It is a dictatorship. He is a slave.” -  Dennis Lachter, agent, Andrei Arshavin

Links

Arshavin goes on strike to put Spurs deal in jeopardy

If I had to bet, I would put money on Tottenham being without David Villa come September 1.  Still, there is an awful lot of smoke around these rumors for there not to be fire.  But the sticking points in my mind:  the current club says they’re not selling, and the player and his representation are being coy about it all.  This seems more Juande Ramos trying provide a cash catalyst to the situation.

Perhaps Ramos and Ramon Calderon went to some seminar together in the spring?

Today, new rumors come from reliable sources.  Tottenham is set to offer £32 million for David Villa.  The sale of Dimitar Berbatov would fund the transaction, with the Bulgarian to be moved for £30 million.

That reported chain of events should raise doubts as to the veracity of the rumors.  Who is going to pay £30 million for Berbatov?  The reports make it seem like not only will somebody do it (Barça?), but they have confirmed this to Spurs, who are only waiting to find another striker to finalize the Bulgarian’s signing.  And yet Berbatov still plays in the preseason games, as he did this weekend.  So beyond the fact that Valencia seems ill-disposed to selling their striker, there are problems with this story.

If somebody has confirmed they want to buy Berbatov for £30 million, why wait?  Spurs didn’t wait to sell Robbie Keane to Liverpool, were willing to create a hole in their linep (which, thankfully, Darren Bent has filled nicely), and now Zenit St. Petersburg is holding Ramos over the coals on Andrei Arshavin’s price.

The same rumors that have Spurs making a new, record-setting bid for Villa have them staying in the picture with Arshavin.  It is all very fantastical, but I refuse to doubt anything Spurs-related after they improbably sold Robbie Keane and then decided David Bentley was a good fit.   Just as I may be proven wrong on Bentley, I may be proven wrong on Villa, and the Spain international could be in London by the end of the month.

The move makes sense if Valencia is you think the reports of their debt problems are accurate.  I never know what to trust with those stories because there are so many different ways clubs can elect to report their debt that I always feel like I’m on the end of a marketing campaign.  If Valencia were inclined to see Villa, though, wouldn’t they have done it a month ago, when Villa’s value was sky-high after Euro 2008 and they could spend the next month using the proceeds to procure a replacement?  With their UEFA Cup campaign about to start and a reasonable expectation they will compete for a UEFA Cup (or even Champions League) spot for next season (as well as wanting to defend the Copa del Rey), how does now doing an about face on Villa make sense?

As you can tell by my inane use of questions as writing devices, I don’t think it does.  All this smoke we’re seeing it just that: smoke.  That said, he would fit rather nicely in North London.

Quotes
“David likes London and likes how Spurs play under Ramos. If they present an offer, Valencia will seriously study the subject.” - Jose Luis Tamargo, agent, Villa
“Valencia CF has made no agreement nor are they involved in any negotiations to transfer David Villa and David Jimenez Silva to any club in Spain or abroad.” - Valencia
“It is completely untrue. I have informed both the players and their agents in an official and clear manner that the firm intention of the club is for both of the players to stay with us and see out their contracts.” - Valencia

Links
Tottenham eyeing £60million triple swoop?
Spurs reportedly prep $80M mega-bid for Villa
Spurs set for record breaking swoop
Valencia furious over Villa-Silva sale claims
Valencia determined to keep stars
Valencia want to keep Spanish stars Villa and Silva
Soriano vows to keep stars at Valencia

This season, there will be no more scrutinized goalie in the world than Chelsea’s Petr Cech.  After the goal he gave up at Euro 2008 to Nihat Kahveci that allowed Turkey to tie their final group stage match against the Czech Republic, Cech temporarily knocked himself out of the discussion for world’s best keeper, a debate which now leaves Juventus’s Gianluigi Buffon and Real Madrid’s Iker Casillas as its only candidates.   It was not just the Euro 2008-aberration.  Others remembered the howler Cech let in against Liverpool towards the end of Chelsea’s Champions League semifinal.

Yesterday in Moscow, Chelsea’s friendly against Lokomotiv in the Russian Railways Cup offered another reason to wonder if Cech will ascend back to the form that had him voted Europe’s best goalkeeper twice.

Chelsea had been protecting an early Michael Essien goal for most of the match when Loko was awarded a direct free kick from just outside the box.   There was less than ten minutes remaining in regular time.  Cech positioned his wall and looked like he had Ruslan Kambalov’s free kick covered.  As the ball came around the wall and towards the lower right-hand corner of Cech’s goal, the keeper curiously pulled his hands back slightly from the save, presumedly to let the ball would go wide.  The curving shot hit the inside of the post and went in to tie the match in a true “I can’t believe that just happened” moment.

Lokomotiv would go on to win the match on penalty kicks, with Cech failing to stop any of Loko’s attempts.

It was just a friendly, and of the three goals mentioned here, only one has been truly consequential, but in all three instances, Cech was trying to stop shots and did not do it (for what ever reason).  For people trying to assess Petr Cech, trying to determine what he is capable of, these instances matter.

Petr Cech is capable of some of the best goaltending in the world.  Last season, his return from injury to Chelsea’s lineup was one of the main reasons the Blues were able to push for both the Premiership and Champions League titles.  Still, his tendency to allow goals like these is troublesome, keeping him out of the conversation of best goaltender in the world.

Beyond Petr Cech’s performance, the Loko match exhibited one of Chelsea’s more worrisome tendencies from last season.  Chelsea had a knack for playing down to their opponents’ level - of either relaxing once they got a lead or not doing enough to get leads early.  Their Champions League loss in Istanbul to Fenerbahçe showed this, as did their final Premiership match against Bolton, to name two of the more obvious examples.

Similarly in this match, Chelsea controlled most of the match but showed an unwillingness to put forth the effort to get that critical second goal.   The one player who really stood out in his effort - a possibly rejuvenated Niclas Anelka, who beautifully trapped a cross onto Essien’s left foot for the goal - lacked teammates who matched his intensity.  They kept the lead at one, given Loko the opportunity to win in kicks should something like a Cech hiccup happen.

Loko is a very good team, possibly a title threat in the Russian Premier League, but they were clearly not in Chelsea’s league.  You do not want to take too much from a friendly, but if Chelsea goes through a second season of leaving points on the pitch like this, they can forget about winning a Premiership where Manchester United will be joined by improved Arsenal and Liverpool sides.

Yesterday, Andrei Arshavin’s agent said that Zenit St. Petersburg was in negotiations with Tottenham regarding the transfer for his client to the North London club. Today, the club confirmed the negotiations, adding that the Russian Prince could be making his way to England within five days.

The price Zenit is reported to be seeking is £20 million with at least one report saying it’s £24 million, the highest figure reported since the Arshavin frenzy started six weeks ago.  The main difference between then any now:  Tottenham has already started to play their hand in regards to their strikers, having sold Robbie Keane to Liverpool.  Zenit will be negotiating from a position of strength - able to afford Arshavin, willing to keep him, having a buyer with a need.  Still, you don’t quote a number like £24 million for a 27-year-old unless you’re willing to come down.  If Zenit is willing to let their number fall below £20 million so Spurs don’t take a loss on the Keane sale, a deal should be done.

Between player and new club, negotiations may also be farther along then yesterday’s initial reports hinted.  Arshavin’s agent says that personal terms have been agreed to between the Russian Prince and Spurs, helping to explain why reports have surfaced of Tottenham’s withdrawal from David Villa and Diego Milito talks.  Arshavin now seems destined for White Hart Lane, as it is unlikely Spurs would have gotten to this point in Zenit talks, forsaking other options, if they were not eventually prepared to meet Zenit’s asking price.  Perhaps Zenit should hold out for the full £24 million?

Zenit’s preparations for an Arshavin move are said to have begun, with the St. Petersburg club having made a play for Marseille’s Mathieu Valbuena.  Their did was reported to be €18 million, a good amount for a 23-year-old midfielder who has only one year’s experience at a top level.  With Arshavin gone, Zenit will need another scoring threat to compliment and compensate for Pavel Progrebnyak.  Valbuena is unlikely to be that kind of player.

Quotes

“We have certain contacts with Tottenham, but when they will conclude, I still do not know.” - Konstantin Sarsaniya, spokeman, Zenit
“Tottenham have an interest in the player, and I understand that the player has an interest in the club too.” - Sarsaniya
“Tottenham Hotpsur is the club to agree personal terms with the player but unfortunately we are too far making an agreement with Zenit St Petersburg.” - Dennis Lachter, agent, Arshavin
“The promises given to the player have gone and, day to day, there are new updates regarding the transfer.” - Lachter
“Several inside the club couldn’t agree the concept of the deal and this is the main problem.” - Lachter
“Andrei likes the way Juande Ramos is going to play at Tottenham and this is the main point of our decision - not only the money but the desire of the manager to have the player.” - Lachter
“I have already taken a final decision. It only remains to finalise it with the club management.” - Arshavin

Links

Zenit ready for Arshavin exit
Zenit:  Arshavin talks continuing
Zenit hint Arshavin agreement is close
Zenit bid for Valbuena
Arshavin could join Tottenham Hotspur soon
Record fee for Bentley stretches Tottenham in pursuit of Arshavin
Spurs told to dig deeper for Arshavin after securing Bentley
Milito off Spurs’ radar
Arshavin agrees Spurs terms but deal stalls
Arshavin set to join Bentley at Spurs
Spurs in talks with Arshavin
Spurs in Arshavin talks

The idea of Andrei Arshavin moving from Zenit St. Petersburg to Tottenham in the wake of the Robbie Keane sale has reached an explicit stage, with Arshavin’s agent speaking about Spurs specifically.

Dennis Lachter downplayed the idea that a move is close, but he did continue that Spurs continue to talk to Zenit about the Russian Prince.  He confirmed that Zenit maintains a high price for Arshavin (though it has reportedly dropped slightly) and the gap between it and what Tottenham wants to pay remains significant.

The angle of the story that nobody is talking about is Arshavin’s change of heart as it concerns Spurs.  Arshavin had some negotiations earlier this summer with Spurs before his Euro 2008 explosion, after which he seems to indicate Spurs was not a big enough club for him.  But after Barcelona tried to low-ball Zenit and no other top-tier clubs tabled offers, Arshavin’s decided that a move to London an Tottenham is better than stay with Zenit.  At least he gets to move to the Premiership, and there are far worse clubs you could be at than Tottenham.

If Arshavin’s reticence to move to Italy wasn’t such an issue, AS Roma would also be a possibility.  Roma is an elite club, will be playing in the champions league, has players like Francesco Totti and Daniele De Rossi, and is a serious threat for their league’s title.  Rome is a beautiful place and Italy has some appreciation for Russian culture.  Still, Arshavin has been adamant that he does not want to move to the Serie A.

At this point, Zenit can hold out, knowing that Tottenham has played their hand in selling Keane.  Daniel Levy wants everybody to believe that Spurs had no choice but to sell, but it’s unlikely the situation is as simple as “mighty” Liverpool forcing Tottenham’s hand.  Spurs acted too early on a deal that could have done as a handshake until they got Arshavin, David Villa, or Thiago Neves.  Now Zenit, who is willing to lose out on an Arshavin deal for asking too much, can exact their fee from Tottenham.  It’s unlikely with Valencia or Fluminense will be selling their target at a discount.

Quotes

“At this point there is some talks with Tottenham, but nothing complete because of the high fee Zenit want for Andrei.” - Lachter
“The gap is huge between the two clubs as Zenit are looking a lot of money for Andrei.” - Lachter
“Juande Ramos very much wants to sign Andrei as he is his number one target and Daniel Levy is doing everthing to make the deal, but it is difficult to agree a fee with Zenit.” - Lachter
“Andrei has made it known he wants to leave Zenit and the player has made his decision - he would like to go to Tottenham.” - Lachter

Links

Spurs in Arshavin talks
Arshavin itching For Spurs Move - Agent
Arshavin agent cools Tottenham talk
Spurs in talks with Arshavin

Paris St. Germain just finished a disappointing campaign which saw the club barely avoid relegation. The only bright spot was the team’s victory in the Coupe de la Ligue, though even that victory has been heavily tainted. Their March 29 victory over Lens in the finals was tainted by a group of PSG fans who help up signs deriding people from northern France as pedophiles and inbreeds. In response, the French Football Federation banned PSG from this season’s League Cup competition.

The ban was originally levied in April but has resurfaced in the wake of the French Olympic committee’s appeal to the Federation to have the punishment reduced. The committee felt the ban disproportionate and suggested a match behind closed doors as a better means to punishing the club for fan behavior. The FFF, however, has reinforced its original ruling.

It’s a common punishment throughout Europe - to take sanctions against a club for behavior of its fans.  In this case, a group of PSG fans called the Boulogne Boys were responsible for the 25 meter sign.  As a result, their favorite club will miss the competition which gained them entrance into European football this season.   The fan group has since been disbanded.

Even allowing for the sometimes intimate link between clubs and fan groups, punishing the club and its well-behaving fans for the behavior of a few has always seemed wrong, to me.  In Russia this week, Zenit St. Petersburg was fined because some of its fans made racist taunts to some Marseille players in last season’s UEFA Cup.  The fine implies that Zenit bares some responsibility for what came out of its fans mouths, just as PSG’s ban implies they bare some responsibility for the Boulogne Boys’ sign.  It’s a weak argument, at best, and one that I don’t buy.

But you don’t have to buy the argument to by the sanctions, sanction which imply that whether the club is responsible or not, the best way to affect the behavior of supporters is to implicit some ill on their clubs.  If a punishment like this ever landed on one of my favorite sides so that the behavior of a few started to adversely affect me, I would be disgusted by the lack of justice.

Quotes

“Our disciplinary committee fined Zenit for racist conduct by their fans, the use of pyrotechnics and the display of a political banner during their match against Marseille.” - UEFA
“The spectators looked at us, openly making monkey noises.” - Ronald Zubar, Marseille
“PSG aren’t being picked on but we had to remain firm faced with something that misrepresents the sport.” - Jean-Pierre Escalettes, president, FFF
“What shocked us was to hear the CNOSF say that this sanction was ‘disproportionate’.” - Escalettes
“We think it’s a suitable sanction. At the time we were accused of being lax and now we’re told it’s too severe.” - Escalettes

Links

UEFA fine Zenit over racism
Zenit fined after UEFA racism probe
Zenit fined for racist incident
PSG ban upheld
FFF rejects PSG’s appeal to defend Cup title
No League Cup reprieve for PSG

As beguiling as I find Juande Ramos’s decision to move Robbie Keane, it’s a salvageable situation.  The money Spurs got in the Keane signing will help Ramos construct the younger, faster, more skilled roster he’s been looking to mold since taking over in January.

David Villa would fit that mold nicely, but reports hold Ramos has declined Valencia’s invitation to register a bid for Villa.  That seems unconscionable in like to the money brought in for Keane until you consider Spurs may already have another striker in mind.  With Thiago Neves, another player recently linked to Spurs, in Beijing and unlikely to be sold until after returning to Fluminense (at the earliest), there is one player left on the list.

Andrei Arshavin was said to be close to moving to Spurs a couple of weeks ago when Tottenham registered a bid just short of Zenit’s £21.5 million evaluation.  Though it wsa thought Ramos would move on, the cash infusion from Liverpool could make its way east.  With Zenit still struggling in the Russian Premier League, the sale of Arshavin is unlikely to derail any non-existent championship hopes (though it may keep them out of the top five and Europe all together, especially if Pavel Progrebnyak can’t stay healthy).

I don’t know if Arshavin is necessarily a better player than Keane, but he quickness and technical skill are closer to what Ramos wants than what Keane provided.  Whether Spurs keep Dimitar Berbatov or let him go and get a player like Samuel Eto’o from Barcelona, Arshavin make a perfect second striker an attacking midfielder.  His natural position on the left could even play off Luka Modric and Giovani Dos Santos should Ramos wish to deploy a three-in-support tactic behind whomever pushes the line.

Having to only come up with another couple million pounds to meet Zenit’s evaluation of Arshavin, Ramos will be left with a small pool to address the midfield.  David Bentley has been constantly lilnked with Tottenham since he handed in his transfer request, a move that seems to contradict a lot of what Ramos is trying to do.   If I’m trying to create a quicker more technically skilled club, I’m not going to get David Bentley.  He lacks the pace to play along side players like Arshavin, Modric, and Dos Santos.

What Bentley does provide, however, is good distribution from the right, the potentially to play the middle, and a deeper lying threat than the rest of Tottenham’s lineup.  In that respect, he can be seen as a fit, and a where-there’s-smoke-there’s-fire logic holds Ramos to agree with this.  The money figures add up, too, should Ramos move for the England international.

Should Arshavin and Bentley be Ramos’s targets, he will leave a lot to be desired at the back, Tottenham’s biggest weakness last season.  With Keane and Berbatov up front, Tottenham did not lack for goals.  It was at the back where Spurs found few leads safe, yet there have been few meaningful improvements.  Getting Huerelho Gomes from PSV Eindhoven will help, but bringing a goalie into the Premiership and expecting him to completely turn around your defensive fortunes is wishful thinking.

More wishful thinking is putting your club in position where you must make moves in order to compete.  Ramos’s dealing of Keane has placed Spurs in a place where they need to replace Keane else risk not being able to compete for European football.  Darren Bent had four goals today, but that may end up being more goals than he pockets for the entire Premiership.  Whether he or Dos Santos slots into Keane’s spot in the interim, Tottenham is now short a striker.  That they may get Arshavin (and Bentley) is less interesting than the fact that they now need Arshavin.

Quotes

“The price is very high, as are the personal terms.  Let us see what happens in the future. It may need English clubs to sell some players first.” - Dennis Lachter, agent, Andrei Arshavin

Links

Arshavin would consider Spurs
Tottenham can’t afford Arshavin - Zenit
Spurs offer for Russian star rejected
Robinson departure helps Bentley’s Spurs move
Robinson set for Rovers as Bentley heads the other way