One of the more exciting days of the European club football season is the day the Champions League group stage is drawn.

The 32 teams that have qualified for the group stage are drawn into eight, four-team groups.  Before that happens, all teams are broken into four pots, labeled A through D, where they are grouped according to a team’s strength (as determined by a formula called a coefficient).  Each of the eight groups can have no more than one team from each pot, no more than one team from a country.  The eight groups end up pretty even.

The draw is fun because you end up with a series of matches which, in addition to being high profile based on the quality of the teams involved, are rare.  In the days before the draw, you start considering the possibilities and potential story lines:  Chelsea and Fiorentina in a group, forcing Adrian Mutu to play the club he owes £14 million; Marseille being slotted with Arsenal months after having sold them Samir Nasri, and potentially getting Bayern Munich in the group, so they would have to face Franck Ribery; Barcelona being slotted with a Zenit St. Petersburg team whose star, Andrei Arshavin, so badly wanted to play at Camp Nou; FC Porto being grouped with Inter Milan and facing Jose Mourinho.

Here’s how the eight groups ended up being drawn, with the clubs listed in order of the group they were drawn from:  A to D.  Continue Reading »

It’s hard to look back on Week 1 given what’s on tap for the second week of the Portuguese Liga.  Benfica, coming off an embarrassing draw at promoted Rio Ave, have a chance to redeem the start of their season and go into the international break on a high note when they host Porto on Saturday.  With Porto off to another controlling start, Benfica will need a result lest they fall five points behind.

But first, let’s look back at last week’s picks.

Continue Reading »

The story coming out of the first week of Portugal’s season could have been the continued excellent of FC Porto or Sporting Club of Portugal, but as they did last year with their turnstile coaching position and curious roster management, the storied Benfica club making themselves into a curiosity is the most interesting headline in the Superliga.

Benfica finished a shocking fourth last season despite having a much better goal differential than third place finishing Vitoria de Guimaraes. This relegated them to the UEFA Cup, which undoubtedly gave them a nice taste in their mouth was they saw Guimares bow out of Champions League before the group stage. Benfica may be right to believe they would have beaten FC Basel.

Benfica is a club that’s been European Champions twice. They’ve been to the final of the Champions League seven times and are part of Portugal’s big three clubs along with Porto and Sporting CP, and in bringing in Pablo Aimar and Jose Antonio Reyes from the Spanish league looked ready to challenge Sporting, if not Porto.

That challenge will have to wait until Benfica can prove able to manage Rio Ave. You know Rio Ave? The club that finished second in the Liga de Honra last season? They, apparently, are capable of competing with Benfica, drawing with the Portuguese giants 1-1 on Sunday. For Benfica, tackling Porto and Sporting CP will have to wait.

In the interim, the other top teams handled their business against opening weekend speed bumps. Sporting Lisbon gave Trofense, last season’s second division champions, a rude introduction to the top tier, defeating them 3-1 in Lisbon. Sporting CP scored their three goals within the first 28 minutes and cruised the rest of the way.

Porto looked to be slightly more bothered in the absence of start Ricardo Quaresma, whose continues to try and recovery from an injury which sidelined him throughout the preseason. For Inter Milan fans this means he will be at the San Siro by the end of the week. If that’s the case, Porto may have shown themselves capable of surviving, with a 2-0 final score belying a lop-sided match. Porto was able to consistent pressure Belenenses goaltender Julio Cesar, who got a rude introduction to Portuguese football, playing his first game after coming over from Brazil’s Botafogo. The 21-year-old will see better days, though if Quaresma stays at Porto, last week’s match may prove to be a blessing. Porto again looks the league’s class.

Whether that class will extend beyond Portugal was the question today as both Porto and Sporting were drawn into their Champions League groups. With both teams in Pot B (the second level), they will be expected to make it into the knock-out stage. Porto faces a tough draw, grouped with Arsenal, Fenerbahce, and Dinamo Kiev. Fenerbahce advances to last season’s Champions League quarterfinals, while Dinamo Kiev destroyed Spartak Moscow in qualifying to get to the group stage. You will see Porto picked anywhere from first to fourth.

Sporting CP was drawn into the thinnest group, with Barcelona being the clear class of a quartet that also includes FC Basel and Shakhtar Donetsk. Though both Basel and Shakhtar proved themselves tough in qualifying, Sporting will not have Porto’s excuse of a tough group should they fail to reach the knock-out phase of the tournament.

Today (Friday), five Portuguese teams will be draw into the UEFA Cup first round. Vitoria de Guimaraes, eliminated from the Champions League by Basel, will be joined by Benfica, Vitoria de Setubal, Maritimo, and Sporting Braga. In theory, Benfica is one of the tournament’s five or six top teams, but does that mean, were they in the UEFA Cup, Rio Ave would also be favorites?

WFP Portuguese Superliga Club Rankings

	Rank	Last Week	Club
	1	N/A	Porto This spot will be theirs until shown they don’t deserve it. It’s just the respect they deserve. Hulk got his first goal.
	2	N/A	Sporting CP Like Porto, started this season where they left off the last.
	3	N/A	Nacional Two goal win on the road to kick off the season gets them an early, lofty rankings.
	4	N/A	Naval Strong showing against Maritimo was a mild surpise, but a second minute goal is often all you need in the Portuguese Liga.
	5	N/A	Vitoria de Setubal Guimaraes my not have shown well in Champions League qualifying, but a point on the road against last season’s third place finisher gets a decent rankings.
	6	N/A	Sporting de Braga Authors of one of the four victories by at least two goals. They will have the chance to show themselves on Monday when they host Sporting CP.
	7	N/A	Vitoria de Guimaraes It my not be fair given these rankings are domestic affairs, but I can’t help but remember their Champions League qualifier against FC Basel when making this list.
	8	N/A	Belenenses They were the sacrifical lambs for Porto on the opening weekend, and while they probably were farther from the champions than the 2-0 score indicated, they won’t be judged too harshly. It was not a match any team would in this league would have been expected to win.
	9	N/A	Estrela da Amadora They got three points at home in a match against two of the lower finishers from last season. It’s the type of win that should help distinguish them at the end of the season, should things go poorly.
	10	N/A	Benfica Made me look absolutely foolish. Just days after I said they could threaten Porto at the top of the league, they draw against the team I predicted to finish last. Nuno Gomes got their goal.
	11	N/A	Rio Ave Congratulations to one of the promoted teams on getting a piont from Benfica.
	12	N/A	Academica Held off the scoreboard in their visit to Amadora.
	13	N/A	Maritimo A disappointing first weekend for last year’s fifth place finisher saw them give a lower rankign team three points. They trailed for 88 minutes of their match.
	14	N/A	Trofense Another of the promoted clubs, were sacrificed to Sporting CP. Is this a Portuguese tradition? To sacrifice the promoted clubs to the Champions League qualifiers on week one? How tribal.
	15	N/A	Leixoes Gave up three goals to Nacional and looks to again be battling relegation. Only the referee bribery scandal saved them last season.
	16	N/A	Pacos de Ferreira Failed to score in their home opener and, like Leixoes, looks destined to struggle to keep their place in the Liga.

Predictions for the first round of Portugal’s Superliga season are proving a bit dangerous, as I already forgot that Portugal started their season earlier today. As it was with the Bundesliga predictions, I missed the opportunity to predict the Friday night opener. Continue Reading »

A fourth major European league kicks off this week when Portugal’s Superliga starts play on Saturday. Like the Bundesliga and Eredivisie, I could know more about this league and will spend this season educating myself, starting with the leg work I have to do to make these predictions. They may be worth no more than a reference point eight months from now, when I will hopefully be more knowledgeable about a league which is a major source of talent for the big three leagues.

Almost all of these teams I know from what I see when they play FC Porto, which is the dominant club of this league. More than PSV Eindhoven in the Netherlands and much more than Bayern Munich in Germany, Porto is the class of this league. They are closer to seven-consecutive Ligue 1 champion Lyon, and as it concerns current distance from their rivals, Porto trounces their French analog. In 30 matches, Porto allowed only 13 goals last season while scoring 60; winning 24 of those games while losing only 3. They are the last club outside the big three to win Champions League, have a world-class winger in Ricardo Quaresma, and would surprise some if they did not advance beyond the UCL group stage this season. The won the league by 20 points this season and have suffered only one significant loss: Jose Bosingwa to Chelsea.

Porto should regress slightly, but if a serious challenge is to be made, it won’t be from them coming back to the crowd. A club is going to half to catch up to them. Two clubs, Sporting Lisbon (second last season) and Benfica (fourth), have loaded up, each having a laundry-list of additions they’ve made. Both clubs should score a lot more goals than last season to make themselves dangerous over a schedule that has only 30 games. Benfica, in particular, seems to have loaded up, though Sporting showed this weekend that they can be formidable when they beat Porto in the Portuguese Super Cup.

Benfica should mount a major challenge. They were already excellent defensively, allowing only 21 goals last season. Regression alone will have them close that difference with Porto, and the roster chances the two teams have made will close the gab a little more. Benfica has lost Rui Costa and Cristian Rodriguez, but they’ve also brought in Pablo Aimar and Reyes. Stabilizing their coaching situation will also help, as the club went through four coaches last season. I think all these changes together will have a dramatic effect.

Beyond these three teams, the table is somewhat of a crap-shoot.  Last year’s third place finisher Vitoria de Guimaraes finish well above where their goal differential would portend, as did fifth place Vitoria de Setubol.  They have more in common with the pack than any of the contenders.  The rest of the league is comprised of Brazilian imports and the seemingly hundreds to players on loan from Porto.  Most of them could “click” and make a run for the last couple of the league’s UEFA Cup births.

I am not picking Benfica or Sporting Lisbon to win the league, but I think at least one of them will make it interesting. Until a club proves otherwise, Porto is the club in Superliga, but this season Benfica should do for Superliga what Bordeaux did for Ligue 1 last season: make it a contest.

Portuguese Liga side Sporting Lisbon has rejected a bid from the Premiership’s Everton for star midfielder João Moutinho, saying their captain is not for sale.  He is not for sale, but they want €25 million, their statement or rejection said.  Such is the way these things work.

Everton only levied a €15 million bid for the midfielder, are short of what should have been expected for the 21-year-old.  It seems  a feeling out bid, so expect David Moyes to follow-up.   With a need for some creative presence in attack, Moutinho is the name floating about which best fits for the Toffees’.  Add in the fact that Moutinho has told Sporting that he wants to move to Everton and you have a formula where the only failure will be Everton’s unwillingness to meet Sporting’ evaluation.

I think Sporting’s evaluation is fair and, given the deep effect such a move would have on their roster, they should not feel the need to acquiesce.  Everton isn’t a cash rich club and is trying to keep the price down (one report said a potential sticking point would be Everton’s desire to base the payments in installments), but Moyes needs to look at a player as young as Moutinho in a different light.  The Protuguese star will be the backbone for a consistent UEFA Cup qualifier, insurance against Mikel Arteta joining Atlético Madrid (as was rumored all summer), and (if Arteta stays) a team that can challenge for a top four position.

The purchase is worth a 25 million expenditure in the short-term, sacrificing some other, smaller acquisitions.  The increase in prestige Moutinho’s performance can garner the club would make future acquisitions that much easier.

Quotes

“Last Saturday the Fifa agent Pini Zahavi, with a letter of representation issued by Everton FC, visited the headquarters of the society and transmitted that the English club offered €15million (£11.8 million) for the acquisition of the sporting rights of the player Joao Moutinho, with the figure eventually adding an amount not yet determined if Everton FC qualify for the Champions League.” - Sporting Lisbon, released statement
“The proposal was rejected outright and it was told to Mr Pini Zahavi, who acted in the dual capacity as representative of the player and Everton FC, it was not the intention of Sporting SAD to transfer the player.” - Sporting
“I want to leave Sporting. The club management already knows my wish.” -  Moutinho
“This is not new because I have repeated the quotes in the last few weeks.” - Moutinho
“Sporting know that my decision is to leave the club and now I hope that the negotiations finishes positively.” - Moutinho

Links

Everton fail in Moutinho bid
Sporting turn down Everton’s bid for Moutinho
Everton bid for Moutinho rejected
Sporting snub Everton’s bid for Moutinho
Sporting confirm Toffees bid rejected
Moutinho eyes Sporting exit
Everton edge closer to huge transfer
Sporting turn down Everton’s bid for Moutinho
No bid yet for Moutinho
Toffees’ Portuguese target staying put
Everton hope to add Moutinho and five more

As we get closer to the start of the Premiership season I spend more and more time thinking about each club’s prospects for the campaign.   One club that I can’t get a pulse on is Everton, a side that deserves respect for not only finishing fifth last season but also making a respectable run at breaking into the top four.  Despite this, I can not get too excited about the Toffees’ prospects for the new season.  With the lingering feeling that David Moyes had them overachieving last season plus improvements from clubs that finished below them on the table, I’m inclined to predict a notable drop for Everton this season.

This is the main reason I think Everton needs João Moutinho, the star Portuguese midfielder for Sporting Lisbon.  Moutinho scored seven goals in 39 appearances last year for Sporting before impressing with Portugal at Euro 2008.  He would bring a much needed injection of class and pace to an Everton team which, while not lacking talent, could use some elite players.  Each spot in the Toffee’s starting XI is filled with a solid player, yet very few are true star-caliber players.  Moutinho is, and at 21-years-old, he is still improving.

For Everton, he would give them a much-needed play maker and attacking threat in the middle of the pitch.  Along with Mikel Arteta, the other Toffee of truly world-class caliber, Moutinho could form a partnership that could control matches against the less skilled Premiership sides while still having them the chance to steal points against the top teams.  With Yakubu up front benefiting from the revamped midfield Moutinho would define, Everton would put itself in position to steal one or three points from sides like Liverpool and Chelsea who, if they play like they did last season, have a disturbing knack of keeping lesser teams in matches.  The threat from Moutinho, Arteta, and Yakubu could take advantage of that trait.

At his age and level, Moutinho is unlikely to be cheap, and Everton may have to go above £20 million for him.  It’s a price that is driven by Sporting’s desire to keep their young captain in the fold.  He would be very difficult for them to replace.  Still, £20 million would be a boon for them, and with another month in the transfer season open, they could bring in a cheap, short-term solution (like Maniche) while using that money to address other needs.

Besides, Moutinho is starting to make it clear he wants to move on.  Sporting is saying what its fans want it to say.  Moutinho is not moving, they say, but if Everton wants him bad enough, the star midfielder will be a Toffee.  Everton should want him bad enough, because while (at this stage) his acquisition isn’t going to bridge a gap between fifth and fourth, it will help them threaten for a UEFA Cup spot, a position they may be on the outside looking in on if they do nothing.

Links

Toffees To Sweeten Moutinho Deal
No bid yet for Moutinho

One of the least competitive major leagues in last year’s European club season was the Portuguese Superliga.  With Benfica moving through a bad year, FC Porto was able to jump out early and run away with the league.  Porto won the league by twenty points and allowed only 13 goals in 30 games.

With that kind of cushion between them and the competition, Porto should take this opportunity to sell high on Ricardo Quaresma.  Quaresma is in Inter Milan’s picture and has been mentioned with Chelsea.  He’s gone as far as he can in Portugal, and while holding on to him might help secure Porto’s standing in the league, that standing needs little securing.  The longer the keep him, the more his transfer price will go down, whether that be due to a decrease in quality, an increase in age, or both.

Pinto de Costa, chairman at Porto, might be exacting a greater price for Quaresma by saying he’s very far from a deal to sell the winger, but it’s unlikely clubs are  low-balling him for a player that has such a high profile and good reputation around Europe.  Costa should quickly assess the market for his player and sell.  Use the money, rather than the player, to keep the club atop the table.

Links

Porto cool Quaresma talk

De Costa Denies Inter-Quaresma Deal

Jose keen on Quaresma

Ricardo Quaresma may already be signed with Inter Milan.  During Euro 2008 he said that he had already agreed to a contract with a new team.  While he hasn’t moved from FC Porto since Portugal was eliminated from the tournament, he has only talked about moving to Inter.  Likewise, Jose Mourinho has expressed some interest in the winger.

Inter obviously has a very talented squad, coming off another Scudetto winning season, but they have hole, most notably in the midfield.  They have great depth up front and are decent in the back but lack the athleticism and playmaking in the midfield that you would expected from one of the top teams in Europe.  Adding Frank Lampard will help that by giving them a resourceful, scoring threat coming into attack from behind the front line.  Quaresma will add an element of athleticism that Lampard does not along with the ability to play with the soon-to-be-former Chelsea star.

Mourinho has said he feels he is made for the Champions League, but he’s going to need to get some players like Quaresma in order to complete with the more skill, athletic midfields in Europe.

Links

Quaresma Appeals to Mourinho