World Football Postulant

Many may not look at Real Madrid visiting Deportivo de la Coruña as a marque match-up, but when you predict the two-time defending champions to drop to third place, any opening match is big one.  That’s why I will be looking intently at their match-up, though there are a couple of other more evenly matched fixtures which should draw attention.

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While Real Madrid has been making transfer headlines all summer, few have noticed that they have done little to improve their team.  In fact, it seems they have taken some steps backwards.  Now I agree Rafael van der Vaart is a great signing, but they’ve lost Wesley Sneijder to injury, have yet to get Fabio Cannavaro back, have an aging core, and are on the verge of losing Robinho.  Beyond that, you can ask if Casillas can play better than he did last year, or is it even reasonable to predict such performance?

Madrid is coming back to the pack.  The question is how much other teams have done to catch-up.  Barcelona has also been in the news all summer, but they made as many meaningful changes than Madrid.  Van der Vaart is going to play immediately and regularly for Real.  Is Alexander Hleb really going to unseat anybody in Barcelona’s lineup?  Doubtful.  Daniel Alves does, however, give them another dimension on the right, and he has a track record in La Liga.  Barça’s main issue is getting the talent they have playing to its potential.  As you can see to the right, I do believe that Pep Guardiola can so it.  At a minimum, he will instill a pride in performance - in the shirt the players are wearing - that will help resolve some of the inconsistencies we saw last season.

With apologies to Villareal, the other major title contender is Atletico Madrid.  They have made major improvements in goal prevention, bringing in Paulo Assuncao and Tomas Ujfalusi.  I love these signings and think Atletico can have on of the better defenses in La Liga.  Their strength and depth in midfield can help control matches against the slightly more talented teams, and the addition of Andre Sinnema Pongol should mitigate the effects of any regression by Diego Forlan.  If only one of them can help carry the load with Kun Aguero, this can be a historical season for the Atleti.

After the top five, I see a huge drop, and although my method ended up with Getafe in sixth and back in Europe, any team between sixth and fifteenth could end up qualifying for the UEFA Cup.  I don’t see much difference between Getafe and, say, Racing, who I’m picking at eleventh.  The things which will distinguish these clubs come May are those which I can not predict.

At the other end of the table, La Liga might have the most uninspiring set of promoted teams of all the league’s I’ve previewed.  This is the first of the six league’s I’ve looked at where I wonder how any of the three will stay up.  But, as I looked at some of the lower-table teams from last year, I did find one candidate that could make a promoted side’s season a success.  Osasuna, who finished seventeenth last season, took some positive steps forward and, as is often the case in these stories, were not as bad as they showed last season.  Recreativo, however, I wonder about.  I don’t see much to recommend them, and the regressions I see put them in a place where they should be worried.  They finished higher than they should have last season, the kind of fortunate you can not bet on from year-to-year.

One team everybody will be looking at after this summer’s European Chmapionships is Valencia.  The Davids (Villa and Silva) will continue to make the team dangerous, but as was the case last season, they will still have problems keeping the ball out of their own net.  Until they prove they can do that from game-to-game, they will continue to be a dangerous but inconsistent team, capable of winning shootouts while getting into too many.

In the end, I see this as the season Barcelona regains the crown.  I think they have done enough to mitigate their inconsistencies at the back to become the team that is most ready to take advantage of Real Madrid’s turn to mortality.  Guardiola will be hailed as a savior, and Joan Laporta may be vindicated.  Meanwhile, if these results come true, we may be left wondering who will replace Bernd Schuster and Ramon Calderon at the Santiago Bernabeu.

One of the more exciting days of the European club football season is the day the Champions League group stage is drawn.

The 32 teams that have qualified for the group stage are drawn into eight, four-team groups.  Before that happens, all teams are broken into four pots, labeled A through D, where they are grouped according to a team’s strength (as determined by a formula called a coefficient).  Each of the eight groups can have no more than one team from each pot, no more than one team from a country.  The eight groups end up pretty even.

The draw is fun because you end up with a series of matches which, in addition to being high profile based on the quality of the teams involved, are rare.  In the days before the draw, you start considering the possibilities and potential story lines:  Chelsea and Fiorentina in a group, forcing Adrian Mutu to play the club he owes £14 million; Marseille being slotted with Arsenal months after having sold them Samir Nasri, and potentially getting Bayern Munich in the group, so they would have to face Franck Ribery; Barcelona being slotted with a Zenit St. Petersburg team whose star, Andrei Arshavin, so badly wanted to play at Camp Nou; FC Porto being grouped with Inter Milan and facing Jose Mourinho.

Here’s how the eight groups ended up being drawn, with the clubs listed in order of the group they were drawn from:  A to D.  Continue Reading »

Contracts may not mean much in the footballing world, but the signing of them can send messages. When David Villa signed his contract with Valencia today, a deal with runs through 2014, the message was clear. Villa will not be moving before September 1.

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A series of interesting notes from Saturday’s papers, but nothing to dissuade me from the notion that Robinho will be in London early this week and will be confirmed a Blue shortly there after.  There are, however, plenty of reports that would undermine that conclusion.

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In the last day Robinho has gone public with his wish to move away from Real Madrid, explicitly citing Chelsea as his desired destination.  Real Madrid, on the club’s web site, announced their intention to honor the request, taking a swipe at Manchester United in by saying they would never hold a player against his wishes.  And though it would seem the story has little to do with Cristiano Ronaldo, the loss of Robinho will undoubtedly have an effect on Madrid’s continued desire to lure the Portuguese star.  But first, Robinho.

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Yet another rumor surrounding Fluminense attacker Thiago Neves, though there is another suitor mentioned in this one.  This time, it is Manchester City, a team who is still looking for that marquee name after being used by Ronaldinho early this summer.  Neves, who just finished his Olympics commitment to Brazil, would fill that role, even if expectations of him are a bit high at this point.  Atlético Madrid has also been strongly mentioned in some reports, but Neves’s representation is speaking openly about a City move, something that is both a good and a bad sign.

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One of the positives Newcastle boss Kevin Keegan took into this offseason was having a clearly defined mission.  With an established front line of Obafemi Martins, Mark Viduka, and the now-deeper-playing Michael Owen having proven at the end of last season that the team could score goals, Keegan could focus on improving goal prevention.  But even with that clarity of purpose, the Magpies had been unable to improve this summer beyond the signing of Argentine winger Jonas Gutierrez from Mallorca.

Yesterday, however, United took their first step towards improving on last season.  Fabricio Coloccini has moved from La Liga’s Deportivo la Coruña to the Magpies in a deal that could end up being worth €13 million.  Coloccini slots into the center of defense, proving immediate improvement.  For a squad that was performing so well at the end of last season despite such a glaring weakness, this is a big acquisition, even if Coloccini is not necessarily the best center back in the world.  He is still very good, and the marginal improvement he will provide Newcastle is huge.

This was another highly contentious transfer, with Coloccini’s representation describing Coruña’s attempts to hold onto the Argentine international as slavery.  He joins countryman Gutierrez in switching to Toon from La Liga this offseason.  Both should help a side that allowed the most goals of any non-relegated team last season.  Despite the deficiency, Newcastle finished twelfth in the league.  Their two additions plus the hope of improved health from their forwards portend to an improved 2008-09 season.

Coruña, on the other hand, have to feel like they were railroaded.  The agent played every card imaginable to try and get his client to England.  In theory, that is what the agent is supposed to do, but it still leaves the club with an unanticipated hole in the middle of defense.  They have about three weeks to fill the place before their La Liga campaign begins.

At the point of the table in which Coruña would have been expected to lurk, the loss of Coloccini’s loss could have a proportionally large effect.  Coruña finished in ninth, only eight points from qualifying for Europe, but they also finished only ten points above relegation.  That is not to suggest Coruña is now a relegation-battler, but La Liga is tightly packed in the middle, and the loss of an important player like Coloccini could see Coruña drop from ninth to thirteenth or fourteenth, if he is not fully replaced.

Quotes
“Real Club Deportivo and Newcastle have agreed the transfer of Fabricio Coloccini to the English club. The clubs had reached a verbal agreement last week which was today confirmed in writing” - Real Club Deportivo la Coruña
“I still honestly believe that we will get two more players in, maybe three, and then we’ll settle down and work very hard with a quality squad.” - Keegan
“I think we have to look to finish in the top ten, in the top half, and anything beyond that we’ll take our chance.” - Keegan

Links
Depor accept Newcastle’s bid for Coloccini
Newcastle bid for defender Coloccini accepted
Newcastle agree deal for Coloccini
Newcastle Coloccini bid accepted
Depor accept Toon bid for Coloccini
Coloccini to join Newcastle
Newcastle close in on Coloccini
Newcastle sign Argentinian
Coloccini ’seals Magpies move’
Official:  Coloccini To Join Newcastle
Argentine Coloccini to join Newcastle
Depor accused of Coloccini slavery

The Court of Arbitration for Sport, to which Barcelona, Werder Bremen, and Schalke had appealed FIFA’s ruling compelling the release of U23-eligible players for the Olympics, has sided with the clubs, ruling teams are not required to release their players for participation in the Games.  The CAS said that clubs have no legal obligation to release the players since the Games do not fall within the agreed to International Match Calendar.

The CAS did, however, encourage all parties to continue working towards an amicable solution.  Shortly after the ruling, both Werder Bremen and Schalke granted their players - Diego and Rafinha, respectively - permission to play.  Barcelona has not said whether they intend to follow through on their previous plans to call Lionel Messi back from Beijing.  Argentine coach Sergio Batista has said he anticipates Messi will stay with the team after joining them late last week.

Though it ruled in the clubs favor, the CAS said it will not mandate non-released players be banned from playing in the games.  The court said that their ruling does not effect the eligibility of any players who have already been entered by their national sides.  That interpretation puts the burden for upholding this ruling not on the International Olympic Committee, FIFA, or the country’s federation.  The burden falls upon the players, who would be in breach of contract should they defy their clubs in the face of the CAS ruling.  With Diego and Rafinha having now received permission to play, the only footballer in danger of breaching contract is Messi.

Argentina opens their Olympic tournament tomorrow against the Côte d’Ivoire.  Likewise, Brazil plays tomorrow, against Belgium.  Barcelona wants Messi back for their Wednesday Champions League qualifying match with Wisla Krakow.  Schalke will take on Atlético Madrid without Rafinha.

Barcelona had previously agreed to let Messi join Argentina should Barça have a comfortable lead after the first leg of their qualifying tie.  That compromise solution was offered before the CAS ruling and would have seen Messi join Argentina for the medal round.  It is unclear whether Barcelona would be willing to grant such a release in light of the CAS’s decision.

While Messi’s Olympic hopes remain in the balance, his gold medal dreams have not been the biggest loser of the saga’s denouement; rather, it is the sport’s governing body that has taken the biggest hit.

In attempting to flex his organization’s muscle and force through a U23-policy for the Olympics that defied his own organization’s International Match Calendar, FIFA president Sepp Blatter unwittingly walked into a club-versus-country fight, misjudging his adversary in the process.  All along, it was apparently that FIFA had overreached it power (and the tacit agreement it held with clubs) when it compelled player releases for a tournament that was not taking place in a release period.  It should not have been a surprise that clubs fought the ruling, nor should FIFA have been caught off guard that the CAS upheld a club view that relied on agreed-to timelines over FIFA’s logic of custom and spirit.  While it is disappointing that the Olympics have fallen so far in esteem that individual football clubs feel justified in withholding players from the tournament, the regulations backed club claims.

There was always a chance that the CAS would rule with FIFA and uphold tradition, but FIFA should have known the clubs would balk.  The European Club Association had been itching for a battle ever since it was late showing up to 6+5’s funeral.  The ECA was going to fight to the end, no matter what.  More than for questioning the Olympic ideal or maintaining control over a few players, the ECA saw this issue as one that spoke to the heart of who controls the footballing world.  To the ECA, the clubs have control.  In the fight to affirm that control, a fight the ECA was formed to win, the clubs have won Round 1.

Perhaps Blatter and the similarly inclined UEFA president Michel Platini will tread lightly next time they wish to butt heads with the clubs, seeing that this first battle was never about the players.  Werder Bremen and Schalke’s easy about-faces on Diego and Rafinha showed that.  It was about Blatter overstepping.  The next battle could be about a Platini-pushed debt-plan or one of Blatter’s club-controlling player restrictions.  The next battle could also be waged for Platini or Blatter’s jobs, with the clubs exerting pressure on their home federations to start looking out for the local interests in addition to contemplating which nation gets a major tournament.

The CAS’s ruling not only rebuffed Blatter and FIFA on the Olympics, it rebuffed the whole organization and marginalized it power by backing the clubs.  The clubs now know they have a track to follow in restraining FIFA.  That Blatter would ever let this battle come to this point was a huge tactical error.  Now FIFA’s lack of power is evident, splashed across every football site in the world.  Before it tripped into this fight,  FIFA’s impotence was a topic for message board conversation and football theorists with excessive time on their hands.  Had Blatter not engaged in this beguiling act of hubris and stuck to the letter of the law - or, better yet, worked with and not over the clubs - FIFA would today be stronger for having brokered a solution.

But today they are weaker, their most dangerous adversary is stronger, and the organization is left to fire verbal salvos referencing spirit and custom.  Even in that vein they have ceded the high road to Werder and Schalke, who have magnanimously released their players.  FIFA, in contrast, remains petulant.

Quotes
“The Court of Arbitration for Sport (CAS) has upheld the appeals filed by FC Schalke 04, SV Werder Bremen and FC Barcelona against the decision issued on 30 July 2008 by the Single Judge of the Fifa’s Players’ Status Committee that consequently has been set aside in its entirety.” - CAS
“The Olympic Football Tournament Beijing 2008 is not included in the Co-ordinated Match Calendar and there is no specific decision of the Fifa Executive Committee establishing the obligation for the clubs to release players under 23 for this tournament.” - CAS
“The requirements to justify a legal obligation of clubs to release their players for the Football Tournament Beijing 2008 on the basis of customary law are not met.” - CAS
“I’m calm and confident about this because I have spoken with the player and know what [Messi] is thinking. The player is going to make it clear to Barcelona that he wants to stay here.” - Batista
“In view of FIFA’s recommendation made to the clubs to release their players as well as of the Olympic spirit, the CAS call upon the goodwill and good sense of FIFA and the clubs to find a reasonable solution with regard to players who wish to represent their country in the Olympic Games.” - CAS
“We are confident and hopeful that [Messi] will remain here with the team for the whole tournament.” - Batista
“Fifa is surprised and disappointed by this decision, but we respect it.” - Blatter
“I regret that the CAS has not taken the Olympic spirit into consideration.” -  Blatter
“The Olympic Football Tournaments are a unique opportunity for a player as they are high-level competitions that give everyone involved - most notably young players - the chance to gain international experience that will stand them in good stead for the future.  It stands to reason, therefore, that it is not only the player and his national team who can benefit from such an experience, but also his club.” - Blatter
“I do not want to go into the legal side of all this, but I do know that [Messi] will be playing with us for the entire championship.” - Batista
“Theoretically the clubs could ask their players to go back to Europe because they would be entitled to do so.  And if the players do not come back there could be a case of a breach of contract.” - Matthieu Reeb, secretary, CAS
“It is now the moment for everyone to sit at the table and find a reasonable solution.  Of course, this could affect the tournament and it’s in the interest of nobody to destroy what could be an extraordinary tournament this year. But this is a matter for clubs, FIFA and the players to decide.” - Reeb
“We could have done with our strongest squad for these matches. We firmly believe, however, that unfortunately there is absolutely no point in bringing Rafinha back one day before our opening game.” - Andreas Muller, general manager, Schalke
“All the frustration and the huge disappointment he would feel, coupled with the exertions of travelling, would not in our opinion have put him in a position to play to the best of his ability.” - Muller

Links
Court blocks Messi from playing
Clubs win Olympic appeal
Fifa disappointed with CAS decision
FIFA disappointed by CAS decision
Messi wants to stay with Argentina - Batista
Clubs win appeal; Messi wants to play
Barcelona to decide Messi fate
German clubs release players for Olympics
Clubs U-Turn Over Olympic Brazilians
Blatter ‘Surprised & Disappointed’
Olympics: CAS steps in to stop players heading to Beijing
Trio wins Olympics appeal
European clubs win Olympic appeal

If I had to bet, I would put money on Tottenham being without David Villa come September 1.  Still, there is an awful lot of smoke around these rumors for there not to be fire.  But the sticking points in my mind:  the current club says they’re not selling, and the player and his representation are being coy about it all.  This seems more Juande Ramos trying provide a cash catalyst to the situation.

Perhaps Ramos and Ramon Calderon went to some seminar together in the spring?

Today, new rumors come from reliable sources.  Tottenham is set to offer £32 million for David Villa.  The sale of Dimitar Berbatov would fund the transaction, with the Bulgarian to be moved for £30 million.

That reported chain of events should raise doubts as to the veracity of the rumors.  Who is going to pay £30 million for Berbatov?  The reports make it seem like not only will somebody do it (Barça?), but they have confirmed this to Spurs, who are only waiting to find another striker to finalize the Bulgarian’s signing.  And yet Berbatov still plays in the preseason games, as he did this weekend.  So beyond the fact that Valencia seems ill-disposed to selling their striker, there are problems with this story.

If somebody has confirmed they want to buy Berbatov for £30 million, why wait?  Spurs didn’t wait to sell Robbie Keane to Liverpool, were willing to create a hole in their linep (which, thankfully, Darren Bent has filled nicely), and now Zenit St. Petersburg is holding Ramos over the coals on Andrei Arshavin’s price.

The same rumors that have Spurs making a new, record-setting bid for Villa have them staying in the picture with Arshavin.  It is all very fantastical, but I refuse to doubt anything Spurs-related after they improbably sold Robbie Keane and then decided David Bentley was a good fit.   Just as I may be proven wrong on Bentley, I may be proven wrong on Villa, and the Spain international could be in London by the end of the month.

The move makes sense if Valencia is you think the reports of their debt problems are accurate.  I never know what to trust with those stories because there are so many different ways clubs can elect to report their debt that I always feel like I’m on the end of a marketing campaign.  If Valencia were inclined to see Villa, though, wouldn’t they have done it a month ago, when Villa’s value was sky-high after Euro 2008 and they could spend the next month using the proceeds to procure a replacement?  With their UEFA Cup campaign about to start and a reasonable expectation they will compete for a UEFA Cup (or even Champions League) spot for next season (as well as wanting to defend the Copa del Rey), how does now doing an about face on Villa make sense?

As you can tell by my inane use of questions as writing devices, I don’t think it does.  All this smoke we’re seeing it just that: smoke.  That said, he would fit rather nicely in North London.

Quotes
“David likes London and likes how Spurs play under Ramos. If they present an offer, Valencia will seriously study the subject.” - Jose Luis Tamargo, agent, Villa
“Valencia CF has made no agreement nor are they involved in any negotiations to transfer David Villa and David Jimenez Silva to any club in Spain or abroad.” - Valencia
“It is completely untrue. I have informed both the players and their agents in an official and clear manner that the firm intention of the club is for both of the players to stay with us and see out their contracts.” - Valencia

Links
Tottenham eyeing £60million triple swoop?
Spurs reportedly prep $80M mega-bid for Villa
Spurs set for record breaking swoop
Valencia furious over Villa-Silva sale claims
Valencia determined to keep stars
Valencia want to keep Spanish stars Villa and Silva
Soriano vows to keep stars at Valencia