World Football Postulant

Many may not look at Real Madrid visiting Deportivo de la Coruña as a marque match-up, but when you predict the two-time defending champions to drop to third place, any opening match is big one.  That’s why I will be looking intently at their match-up, though there are a couple of other more evenly matched fixtures which should draw attention.

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Italy, possibly the most impressive side in the Olympics’ group phase, was handed their match with Belgium.  The underdogs went down a man and a goal within twenty minutes, left to chase the lead with ten men in China’s conditions.  But just over five minutes later the underdogs evened the score, showing the fight that would eventually lead to an upset of a team that looked to have a clear path of the final.

Italy were given a draw with neither Brazil nor Argentina on their side of the medal round draw.  They played in the group phase and looked poised to use these next two matches preparing for the winner of the other semifinal.  That they were not able to go through give Belgium going a man down is stunning.  Belgium, for their part, continue the great play that saw them cruise into the second round while giving Brazil a tough match in their group phase loss.

Belgium was the better side.  Both of Italy’s goals came from Giuseppe Rossi penalty kicks.  And each time, the Belgians came back quickly.  After Rossi’s second goal in the 73rd minute (which tied the score), scored against Belgium’s back-up goaltender (who was replacing the injured starter), the Belgians answered within six minutes through Moussa Dembele’s second goal, putting them up for good.

Italy, up a man, could have persisted with their man advantage and relied on extra time and the heat to wear down their opponents, though before the ensuing kick-off Italian goalkeeper Viviano was red-carded after an altercation with a Belgian player who was getting the ball out of the net.  Outplayed while up a man, the Italians would now have to play on an even field.

It is a stunning result, and the Italians should be disappointed.  They were handed the group, matches, and quarterfinal match which helped pave their way to the finals, and they blew it.  Not only did they blow it, but they wouldn’t have come close without some penalty kicks.  They did not score in open play.

Belgium gets a deserved win and advances to play the winner of Nigeria and Côte d’Ivoire.  The Belgians will again be underdogs, but after today’s match, they won’t be underestimated.

Links
Ten man belgium shock Italy in thriller
Brave Belgium roar into last four

Group A went pretty much to form, with Argentina earning a hard-fought victory over the Ivory Coast, 2-1 on a late goal.  Lionel Messi scored his first goal of the tournament.  Australia and Serbia played to a 1-1 tie.

The Ivory Coast find themselves at the bottom of the table after the first match, but they are still in good shape, being at only -1 on differential and having put a goal on the board.  Still, they will need six points from their next two matches to ensure advancement, though the tie breakers look headed in their direction.

While both of the group’s other teams may have thought a three-point opener within reach, Australia and Serbia’s opening match tie keeps each alive and  in a position to advance should they pull an upset over the Ivory Coast.

Group B finds the United States on top after one round of matches, though thanks to the low-scoring, this group is remains wide-open. The U.S. won what will be their easiest match but  put up only one goal in doing so. Should another team put up a 3-1 (or better) win at any point, the U.S.’s tie-breakers will look weak (especially if that win comes over the U.S.).

That hypothetical aside, the United States is now in a win-and-advance position, with a win over either the Netherlands or Nigeria preventing the loser from getting to the six point the Americans would have.

The Netherlands and Nigeria played to a scoreless draw. Nigeria plays Japan this weekend in what will be a must-win match for the Japanese. Given Japan played decently against the United States, the Nigerians would best not underestimate them. The Netherlands may think their most difficult group match behind them, but moving on to face the United States, they should be concerned about their inability to score goals, given the U.S.’s defense will be at least as good as Nigeria’s.

In Group C, Brazil failed to inspire in their opener, winning 1-0 on a Hernanes goal despite being up two men at the end of the match. The result has to be encouraging for Belgium, who should assume neither China nor New Zealand will be able to better their result. It gives the Belgians the inside track to advancing, though the will have to beat the host nation this weekend to keep their tournament alive.

China blew their opportunity for three points when they could not defeat a New Zealand side that played with ten men for most of the match. Only an eighty-eighth minute goal saved the Chinese from the ignominious distinction of losing at home, up a man. China looks to be in trouble against Belgium.

New Zealand likely loses this weekend’s match-up with Brazil but will still be in position to advance. Their match next week against Belgium will likely determine which of the three teams vying for second place advance move on.  Against Brazil, the Kiwis need to be concerned about the tie-breaker scenarios.  They should try to keep it a one goal match at all costs.

In Group D, Italy put up the most impressive result of the tournament, with Guiseppe Rossi scoring a goal.  While it is not inconceivable they will lose to Cameroon and South Korea, they look in great shape to advance.

Cameroon and South Korea, thanks to their tie, look on a collision course for four group stage points and a tie breaker scenario. With each side having one match against Italy, one match against Honduras remaining, look for each to be opportunistic but conservative against the Italians, aggressive and goal-hungry against the Hondurans.

Brazil and Argentina clearly have the two best teams in the Beijing Olympics.

The men’s tournament, which starts tomorrow, has had a new spotlight shined on it by Argentina’s desire to defend their gold and Brazil’s quest to capture the one international honor that has alluded them.  With names like Lionel Messi, Ronaldinho, Javier Mascherano, Anderson, Sergio Agüero, Diego, Juan Román Riquelme, Alexandre Pato - this list can go on - football fans have not only had their previously dormant interest in the Olympic tournament fed, but visions of an Argentina-Brazil battle for gold tempts to be the highlight of our footballing summer.

Problem: that gold medal match-up is impossible.

Argentina being in Group A and Brazil in Group C, they are drawn to the team side of the medal round, meaning that if each side wins their quarterfinal match, they will meet in the semifinals.  One of Argentina and Brazil will go on to the gold medal match.  The other will be relegated to the bronze medal match.  The match-up of the summer will take place one step sooner than we would have expected.

It is hard to fault the Olympic organizer’s too much, as they had little way to know that Brazil and Argentina would field such strong squads.  Even if they did suspect players like Ronaldinho would be in Beijing, it would be stretching the idea of equity to gerrymander the draw.  It’s not like the Olympics have a UEFA-esque coefficient system to govern such things.  For anybody who wants to bemoan what will be an anti-climactic gold medal match, know there were no ready solutions, and that we are still likely to see Argentina-Brazil.

Or maybe that should be Brazil-Argentina, reversing the order, because if the pre-tournament friendlies are any indication, Brazil should be considered the prohibitive favorite.  In addition to wanting to win this tournament badly and having the deepest roster (it’s possible both Jô and Thiago Neves will not start), they Brazilians are playing very well.  In friendlies against Singapore and Vietnam, Brazil was sharp, and most encouraging:  Ronaldinho looks in-shape, in-form, and motivated.  He was a maestro in the opponent’s third, consistently creating opportunities for teammates and forming a dynamic midfield with Werder Bremen’s Diego.  Alexandre Pato or Jô will consistently get scoring chances, and even should they not be able to produce, Manchester United’s Anderson and Liverpool’s Lucas Leiva will be lurking outside the box ready to clean-up.

Argentina’s best chance against them in the semifinals will be exploiting an inconsistent center of defence.  Thiago Silva and Breno may be the most talent pair of center backs in the tournament, but against Argentina they will be tasked with stopping the two best strikers in La Liga.  Thiago Silva lacks the experience to contain Lionel Messi and Sergio Agüero, while the 18-year-old Bayern Munich protege Breno will be out of his depth.  If Riquelme and Mascherano can maintain some possession against Brazil’s deep midfield, the ball may be at Messi and Agüero’s feet enough to win the match.

That’s the formula.  It remains to be been whether it can be executed.  My prediction after the group-by-group.  In each group, each team plays the other once, with the top two finishers advancing to the medal round.  Wins are worth three points, ties worth one, with the tiebreakers being goal differential, then goals scored.

Group A

Argentina, Australia, Côte d’Ivoire, Serbia

The two best teams are Argentina and the Ivory Coast, with their match to take place tomorrow.  An upset by the Ivorians is not out of the question, though the loser may be better off in the long-run.  The second place finisher in this group be slotted opposite Brazil’s side-of-the-draw in the medal round, meaning an easier path to the gold medal match.  The best team from this group may end up with bronze while the second place finisher, if they can make it past the Netherlands, could win silver.  For those hoping for an Argentina-Brazil final, hope for a draw or loss to Côte d’Ivoire, which features a host of Europe-based players, most-notably Chelsea’s Salomon Kalou.

1.  Argentina
2.  Côte d’Ivoire
3.  Serbia
4.  Australia

Group B

Japan, Netherlands, Nigeria, United States

The toughest group in the tournament sees the Netherlands and Nigeria as favorites, though both the United States and Japan could advance.  There is no finishing order to this group that is out-of-the-question, and the sequence in which the teams play their matches could have a subtle, defining effect on who goes through to the medal round.

The Dutch bring an attack the features Liverpool star Ryan Babel along with Feyenoord’s Roy Maakay, one season removed from staring at Bayern Munich.  Their first match will be against the Nigerians, who bring Lokomotiv Moscow’s Peter Odimwingie as their overage striker.  The sleeper in this group, the Japanese, stand a good chance of advancing, being in good form and willing to out-work their groupmates in the conditions of Beijing.  If the Nigerians drop their opening match to the Netherlands, they could crash out with a let-down in their second match against the Japanese.

And then there are the Americans.  Top-to-bottom, this team can be seen as having as much talent as any in the group, and unlike many, they are relatively strong at the back.  They’ll be able to compete in each match.

It is still a very tight group, and when considering the individual, team-by-team match-ups, it looks like a tough draw for the United States.  They open against Japan, a team that can out-work anybody but may not get the best of the Americans in an opening match.  If the United States can survive that taxing match, they get the Netherlands in their second match, and the United States has a poor history against skilled European sides.  They will need strong play from their midfield to advance.

In the third game, they have an athletic Nigerian side which will give them problems, though I like them to get a result with the Nigerians having a tough first two matches.  Even with that result, I have the Americans finishing third in the group, a result which forces me to admit that may be overly cautious towards my home country.

The second place team from this group will be matched with the winner of Group A, likely Argentina.

1.  Netherlands
2.  Japan
3.  United States
4.  Nigeria

Group C

Belgium, Brazil, China, New Zealand

Brazil has the easiest group, which includes the host nation.  China is not an international footballing power nor would you expect their U23 side to advance if this tournament were being held in another nation, but defying many logical arguments, the host nation has a way of stepping-up to the occasion in these situations.  Given the expectations that are likely to be placed on all Chinese athletes, the host team should take their task much more seriously than either Belgium or New Zealand.  When China opens the tournament against New Zealand, the visitors may be overwhelmed.  Their match three days later against a Belgium team coming off a pasting from Brazil will determine whether they advance.

The second place team from this group played the winner of Group D in the next round.

1.  Brazil
2.  China
3.  Belgium
4.  New Zealand

Group D

Cameroon, Honduras, Italy, South Korea

Italy has only one overage player to Beijing:  striker Tomasso Rocchi. At this stage of the competition, it is unlikely to matter.  They look to advance with relative ease.  It will be slightly disappointing for Americans to see Giuseppe Rossi in Italian blue.

Their main obstacles will be a Cameroon and South Korea.  Korea, like Japan, will have to be taken seriously by each opponent lest they be run off the pitch.  Cameroon, with Arsenal’s Alexander Song at the back, may be the second most-talented side of the group, but the gap between them and the Koreans may not be enough to overcome what will be a highly organized opponent.

The two sides face each other tomorrow to open their tournaments, with the loser left hoping Honduras, the fourth team in the group, can take points from the other.  If the match ends in a draw, how close Korea and Cameroon can play Italy could determine who moves on, as will their willingness to build a goal differential over the Hondurans.

1.  Italy
2.  South Korea
3.  Cameroon
4.  Honduras

Medal Round

If the above predictions hold, the top half of the draw will see a Italy-China quarterfinal opposite Netherlands-Côte d’Ivoire.  China will end up looking like the beneficiaries of an easy group draw when matched-up against a squad of Serie A-experienced players.  Italy will advance to face the Netherlands, who will have a difficult time with Côte d’Ivoire (who I originally had winning at this stage) before their experienced scorers find their way through a suspect opponent’s back line.

In the semifinal match, the Italian’s overall team strength should see them through to the finals after a relatively easy draw.  They are clearly the best team in their group, will face an upstart host-nation in the quarters, and will have the Netherlands in the semis while the other half of the draw will feature a clash of the titans.  The Dutch will go to the bronze medal game with no easier task then the Italians.  Each side will face either Brazil or Argentina.

Brazil will be annoyed by but have no problem defeating the Koreans.  Argentina, however, will get a rematch with a Japanese side they had trouble with in pre-tournament competition.  I expect the defenders to get through, though, creating the match of the tournament.  I like Brazil to move on, with Argentina going to the bronze medal match.

Even deflated from missing out on a chance at the title, Argentina will defeat the Netherlands to claim the bronze.  It may be an uneventful match defined by a few moments of individual brilliance, but while they may leave disappointed, the 2004 gold medalists will not leave Beijing empty handed.

In the gold medal match, I am tempted to pick Italy, as I think they have the ability to exploit Brazil’s weaknesses in central defense.  With Rossi and overage Tomasso Rocchi as strikers and Robert Aquafresca as a third option, the Italians can make themselves dangerous.  I bring this up because Brazil is not know for consistently playing at their best, particularly under Dunga, as their current standing in World Cup qualifying can attest.

Given that Brazil’s roster construction and tournament goals go beyond their match-up with Argentina (even though the fans’ hopes for this tournament may not go much farther), I am not betting on a Brazil let-down after dispatching Argentina.  The program wants a gold medal to complete their trophy case.  There is little reason to think Italy’s Rossi-Rocchi combination more likely to exploit Brazil than Messi-Agüero.

I give the Italians a 2-in-5 chance of winning, so I wouldn’t be shocked Italy shocked the pundants.  I, however, will merely be wrong.

Gold: Brazil
Silver: Italy
Bronze: Argentina