Aug 29 2008
La Liga 2008-09 Season Predictions
| La Liga Season Prediction | ||
|---|---|---|
| Rank | Club | Points |
| 1 | Barcelona | 80 |
| 2 | Atletico Madrid | 74 |
| 3 | Real Madrid | 73 |
| 4 | Sevilla | 71 |
| 5 | Villareal | 70 |
| 6 | Getafe | 56 |
| 7 | Deportivo | 55 |
| 8 | Osasuna | 54 |
| 9 | Almeria | 52 |
| 10 | Athletico Bilbao | 52 |
| 11 | Racing Santander | 50 |
| 12 | Mallorca | 49 |
| 13 | Betis | 48 |
| 14 | Valencia | 47 |
| 15 | Espanyol | 46 |
| 16 | Valladolid | 39 |
| 17 | Sporting de Gijon | 33 |
| 18 | CD Numancia | 32 |
| 19 | Recreativo | 31 |
| 20 | Malaga CF | 28 |
While Real Madrid has been making transfer headlines all summer, few have noticed that they have done little to improve their team. In fact, it seems they have taken some steps backwards. Now I agree Rafael van der Vaart is a great signing, but they’ve lost Wesley Sneijder to injury, have yet to get Fabio Cannavaro back, have an aging core, and are on the verge of losing Robinho. Beyond that, you can ask if Casillas can play better than he did last year, or is it even reasonable to predict such performance?
Madrid is coming back to the pack. The question is how much other teams have done to catch-up. Barcelona has also been in the news all summer, but they made as many meaningful changes than Madrid. Van der Vaart is going to play immediately and regularly for Real. Is Alexander Hleb really going to unseat anybody in Barcelona’s lineup? Doubtful. Daniel Alves does, however, give them another dimension on the right, and he has a track record in La Liga. Barça’s main issue is getting the talent they have playing to its potential. As you can see to the right, I do believe that Pep Guardiola can so it. At a minimum, he will instill a pride in performance - in the shirt the players are wearing - that will help resolve some of the inconsistencies we saw last season.
With apologies to Villareal, the other major title contender is Atletico Madrid. They have made major improvements in goal prevention, bringing in Paulo Assuncao and Tomas Ujfalusi. I love these signings and think Atletico can have on of the better defenses in La Liga. Their strength and depth in midfield can help control matches against the slightly more talented teams, and the addition of Andre Sinnema Pongol should mitigate the effects of any regression by Diego Forlan. If only one of them can help carry the load with Kun Aguero, this can be a historical season for the Atleti.
After the top five, I see a huge drop, and although my method ended up with Getafe in sixth and back in Europe, any team between sixth and fifteenth could end up qualifying for the UEFA Cup. I don’t see much difference between Getafe and, say, Racing, who I’m picking at eleventh. The things which will distinguish these clubs come May are those which I can not predict.
At the other end of the table, La Liga might have the most uninspiring set of promoted teams of all the league’s I’ve previewed. This is the first of the six league’s I’ve looked at where I wonder how any of the three will stay up. But, as I looked at some of the lower-table teams from last year, I did find one candidate that could make a promoted side’s season a success. Osasuna, who finished seventeenth last season, took some positive steps forward and, as is often the case in these stories, were not as bad as they showed last season. Recreativo, however, I wonder about. I don’t see much to recommend them, and the regressions I see put them in a place where they should be worried. They finished higher than they should have last season, the kind of fortunate you can not bet on from year-to-year.
One team everybody will be looking at after this summer’s European Chmapionships is Valencia. The Davids (Villa and Silva) will continue to make the team dangerous, but as was the case last season, they will still have problems keeping the ball out of their own net. Until they prove they can do that from game-to-game, they will continue to be a dangerous but inconsistent team, capable of winning shootouts while getting into too many.
In the end, I see this as the season Barcelona regains the crown. I think they have done enough to mitigate their inconsistencies at the back to become the team that is most ready to take advantage of Real Madrid’s turn to mortality. Guardiola will be hailed as a savior, and Joan Laporta may be vindicated. Meanwhile, if these results come true, we may be left wondering who will replace Bernd Schuster and Ramon Calderon at the Santiago Bernabeu.
In the last day Robinho has gone public with his wish to move away from Real Madrid, explicitly citing Chelsea as his desired destination. Real Madrid, on the club’s web site, announced their intention to honor the request, taking a swipe at Manchester United in by saying they would never hold a player against his wishes. And though it would seem the story has little to do with Cristiano Ronaldo, the loss of Robinho will undoubtedly have an effect on Madrid’s continued desire to lure the Portuguese star. But first, Robinho.
