World Football Postulant

Many may not look at Real Madrid visiting Deportivo de la Coruña as a marque match-up, but when you predict the two-time defending champions to drop to third place, any opening match is big one.  That’s why I will be looking intently at their match-up, though there are a couple of other more evenly matched fixtures which should draw attention.

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While Real Madrid has been making transfer headlines all summer, few have noticed that they have done little to improve their team.  In fact, it seems they have taken some steps backwards.  Now I agree Rafael van der Vaart is a great signing, but they’ve lost Wesley Sneijder to injury, have yet to get Fabio Cannavaro back, have an aging core, and are on the verge of losing Robinho.  Beyond that, you can ask if Casillas can play better than he did last year, or is it even reasonable to predict such performance?

Madrid is coming back to the pack.  The question is how much other teams have done to catch-up.  Barcelona has also been in the news all summer, but they made as many meaningful changes than Madrid.  Van der Vaart is going to play immediately and regularly for Real.  Is Alexander Hleb really going to unseat anybody in Barcelona’s lineup?  Doubtful.  Daniel Alves does, however, give them another dimension on the right, and he has a track record in La Liga.  Barça’s main issue is getting the talent they have playing to its potential.  As you can see to the right, I do believe that Pep Guardiola can so it.  At a minimum, he will instill a pride in performance - in the shirt the players are wearing - that will help resolve some of the inconsistencies we saw last season.

With apologies to Villareal, the other major title contender is Atletico Madrid.  They have made major improvements in goal prevention, bringing in Paulo Assuncao and Tomas Ujfalusi.  I love these signings and think Atletico can have on of the better defenses in La Liga.  Their strength and depth in midfield can help control matches against the slightly more talented teams, and the addition of Andre Sinnema Pongol should mitigate the effects of any regression by Diego Forlan.  If only one of them can help carry the load with Kun Aguero, this can be a historical season for the Atleti.

After the top five, I see a huge drop, and although my method ended up with Getafe in sixth and back in Europe, any team between sixth and fifteenth could end up qualifying for the UEFA Cup.  I don’t see much difference between Getafe and, say, Racing, who I’m picking at eleventh.  The things which will distinguish these clubs come May are those which I can not predict.

At the other end of the table, La Liga might have the most uninspiring set of promoted teams of all the league’s I’ve previewed.  This is the first of the six league’s I’ve looked at where I wonder how any of the three will stay up.  But, as I looked at some of the lower-table teams from last year, I did find one candidate that could make a promoted side’s season a success.  Osasuna, who finished seventeenth last season, took some positive steps forward and, as is often the case in these stories, were not as bad as they showed last season.  Recreativo, however, I wonder about.  I don’t see much to recommend them, and the regressions I see put them in a place where they should be worried.  They finished higher than they should have last season, the kind of fortunate you can not bet on from year-to-year.

One team everybody will be looking at after this summer’s European Chmapionships is Valencia.  The Davids (Villa and Silva) will continue to make the team dangerous, but as was the case last season, they will still have problems keeping the ball out of their own net.  Until they prove they can do that from game-to-game, they will continue to be a dangerous but inconsistent team, capable of winning shootouts while getting into too many.

In the end, I see this as the season Barcelona regains the crown.  I think they have done enough to mitigate their inconsistencies at the back to become the team that is most ready to take advantage of Real Madrid’s turn to mortality.  Guardiola will be hailed as a savior, and Joan Laporta may be vindicated.  Meanwhile, if these results come true, we may be left wondering who will replace Bernd Schuster and Ramon Calderon at the Santiago Bernabeu.

Real Mallorca suffered another hit today, though this one was not unexpected.  Daniel Güiza’s career year of 27 goals, which led La Liga, was not only going to have him looking elsewhere but also have the club willing to sell high.  The transfer fee for the 27-year-old striker is an astounding 17.4 million Euros, the kind of overpayment it usually takes to get a player to jump to Fenerbahce in the Turkish Super League.

Güiza was one of the most entertaining players in La Liga last season, the impetus behind Mallorca’s strong season.  Still, he is unlikely to ever put together a season like he did in 2007-08.  Those who do not see much of La Liga got to see a good, competent striker for Spain in Euro 2008, but he lacks the dynamism that a player usually has when he goes for 17.4 million Euros.

Regardless, it’s a good move for Güiza, who cashed in on his big season for the one, huge contract of his career.  If they make it through qualifying, he’ll play Champions League football.  He’ll also play for Luis Aragonés, who favored him on the Spanish national team.  For Fenerbahce, the continue to raise their profile so that one days teams like theirs, Galatasaray, as well as Greek clubs like AEK Athens, Panathinaikos and Olympiacos in the Super Greek League won’t have to overpay for foreign talent.

Links

Guiza joins Fenerbahce

Fener seal Guiza deal

Fenerbahce claims deal with Spain striker Guiza

Spain striker Guiza joins Fenerbahce

Fenerbahce signs Spain striker Guiza from Mallorca

Jonas Gutierrez opting out of his deal with Real Mallorca has had to have caught the Barralets by surprise.  The 24-year-old Argentine midfielder had two years left on a five year deal before he exercised FIFA Article 17 and opted out of his contract.   For a team that finished a surprisingly good seventh in La Liga last year that is also facing the loss of Daniel Güiza, the league’s leading goal scorer, it is a bitter pill.

That being said, demanding what amounts to a transfer fee from Gutierrez seems ridiculous.  Gutierrez would have had to return to Velez Sarsfield in Argentina if he was still with Mallorca after three seasons.  For Gutierrez, not wanting to move, he had to switch clubs, else the transfer agreement that sent him to Europe would have sent him back to South America.  Gutierrez’s mother on Thursday said it was bad administration by Mallorca not realizing this was to happen.

Mallorca today suggested they will ask for around £8 million from Gutierrez as compensation for the opt out.  Gutierrez, nicknamed Spiderman, is required to compensate the club, and Mallorca’s number is based on  an offer they received from Portsmouth in December.  There is a certain logic to what Mallorca’s doing, but there are a couple of problems.  First, Mallorca has undoubtedly picked the highest offer they received for Gutierrez, hardly a fair and objective standard.  Second, this is an opt-out, not a sale, and Portsmouth’s offer was made in the context of a sale.  If Gutierrez is at the point in his contract where he could opt-out, which he was, then how much value does he have?

How much would Portsmouth willing to offer in July, when Gutierrez could opt out, as opposed to Portsmouth?

These questions are moot.  FIFA’s Webster ruling cited salary and player’s future earnings as a means to gauge compensation.  Mallorca, by precedent, seems pretty far off base.

It’s going to take clubs some time to adjust to the post-Webster ruling world, but they are going to have to get used to the fact that players are practically free agents after three seasons - two seasons, if they’re signed after 28 years old.

Links

Spiderman caught up in transfer row

Mallorca query Gutierrez’s Mallorca move

Keegan’s deal for ‘Greyhound’ Gutierrez questioned by Mallorca

Newcastle sign Argentina winger Gutierrez

Magpies swoop for Spiderman

Spiderman can’t wait to move themselves to Tyneside

Jonas Gutierrez joins Newcastle

Keegan nets Spiderman

Magpies sign Argentine Gutierrez

Magpies complete deal for winger Gutierrez

Newcastle swoop for ‘Spiderman’ Gutierrez