World Football Postulant

With so much movement over the offseason, it’s a bit difficult to pick the first week’s worth of matches.  Both Ajax and PSV get matches they’ll be expected to win, while AZ and NAC Breda may be the most evenly-matched pairing of the weekend.

Here are my first week picks: Continue Reading »

Aside from the top six teams in the league, I was not very familiar with the Eredivisie before going the research for these predictions.  As was the case when I forecasted the Bungesliga and the Portuguese Liga, I am somewhat ignorant of Dutch football.  That, however, will not stop me from trying to become a real follower, with this being my first stab.  To the right, you will see my prognostications for the upcoming season, which starts this weekend.

For these predictions, I used the same method I used for all my other previews.  I looked at every position on every team and asked how that player will effect the team’s goals for and goal against.  Once I had that, I was able to project a goals for, goal against ratio, with which I was able to simulate a double-round robin season.  I wrote a script to do this simulation and have used it for every prediction save Ligue 1’s.  For the Eredivisie, I ran the script 10,000 times to minimize the effect of any statistical noise.

And if that doesn’t make football sound boring, nothing will.

When you watch Eredivisie football, the thing which stands out is the wide-out play.  There are more teams playing three forwards in the Dutch league than anywhere else.  In addition, teams play very wide, attacking football.  This leads to a ton of goals.  The league had one team, Ajax, almost break 100 goals last season.  It is an athlete’s league, a scorer’s league, and almost the mirror image of football in Portugal.  You can see why so many players in this league make an easy transition to the Bundesliga.

Ajax added Marco van Basten and retained almost all of their key players.  They are in a great position to unseat four-time champion PSV Eindhoven, who lost Jefferson Farfan in addition to their starting goaltender, Huerelho Gomes.  PSV only finished three points ahead of Ajax last season and had a worse goal differential.  Having retained leading scorer and new captain Klass-Jan Huntelaar, added van Basten and Miralem Sulejmani (who scored 15 goals for Heerenveen last season).  This is the season where PSV - the Porto, Bayern, Lyon of the Eredivisie - slip to an Ajax side partly motivated by missing out on the Champions League thanks to the now discarded post-season playoffs.  As you can see to the right, I don’t think it will be particularly close.

That playoff format, used also in the Dutch second division (Eerste Divisie), is why a team that finished sixth amongst those vying for promotion finds itself in the Eredivisie.  ADO Den Haag won the promotion playoffs and like, FC Twente (who won the Eredivisie playoff to qualify for Champions League qualifying) looked out of their element against Arsenal, ADO Den Haag will look out of their element in the Eredivisie.

In between top and bottom, the team that has done the most to improve itself is AZ, a team that struggled (relatively) to score goals last season but brought in a series of scorers to help move them back into a UEFA Cup qualifying spot.  They should, at least, be competitive.

The one big surprise I have, after I ran the numbers, is Heerenveen.  In my simulations, there were basically as good as PSV.  I thought, in losing one of their three best goal scorers, they would take a step back from their fifth place finish, but as I looked closer a.) their fifth place finish seemed to understate their performance, and b.) other teams were regressing more than them.

But the story of this Eredivisie season will be at the top, where the league’s two storied clubs will against fight it out for the title.  I have Ajax finally breaking through, but as I mentioned at the onset of this post, what do I know?

PSV Eindhoven unofficially began the defense of their four consecutive Eredivisie championships by downing Feyenoord for the Dutch Super Cup.  The match-up between the winner of the regular season and the winner of the league cup was scoreless at halftime before PSV found their edge in the second half, eventually winning the match 2-0.

Continue Reading »

While they have lost out on Adrian Mutu, AS Roma’s pursuit of a second attacking threat has not ended.  According to coach Luciano Spalletti, the club is looking to sign two more players.  It’s possible each of those players will be attackers as i Giallorossi seeks to replace Mancini and add another complementary piece up front for Francesco Totti.

On name that’s been linked with Rome for the last week is Chelsea’s Florent Malouda.  Malouda has been a disappointment at Stamford Bridge since his move from Ligue 1.  He has not adjusted to the hyperactive pace of the Premiership but may be a better fit in Serie A.  With the France international on the verge of losing out on playing time to Salomon Kalou, Chelsea is seeking to off-load the winger.  Since they don’t want to take a huge loss on the 20 million Euro fee they paid to Lyon, Chelsea may want to keep Malouda (just in case) and loan him out.  Roma would be a very good fit.

Another name being mentioned is Andrei Arshavin.  The Russian and Malouda shouldn’t be viewed as mutually exclusive.  Arshavin would play higher-up, in a partnership with Totti (a partnership with possibilities that should make every football fan excited).  Arshavin is also being mentioned in connection with Tottenham.  Than again, who isn’t?  The Russian Prince has expressed a reticence to the Serie A, but that was back when La Liga and Premiership sides were lining-up for his services.  With Zenit sticking to their asking price of £21.5 million, the suitors have dwindled, and Serie A sides are back in the picture.  Arshavin’s style, however, might not be the best fit for Italy, though he has the talent to improve any club, anywhere.

Real Madrid’s Julio Baptista has also been mentioned, though for a squad like Roma this move makes less sense.  Yes, Baptista could fit in tactically as a second striker, but “The Beast” is three years removed from his last strong season, having failed to make the expected impact at either Real Madrid (where he moved from Sevilla in 2005) or Arsenal (where he spent 2006-07 on loan).  Nobody questions Baptista’s talent, but Roma needs to have a little more certainty in the players they acquire.  These are not chances they’re taking.  They’re looking for contributors, players who will provide them something which will elevate them to a Scudetto and past the Champions League quarters.  There is little to say, from his performance over the last three seasons, that Baptista’s that player.

Then there is Klass-Jan Huntelaar, the Ajax star who has been linked with a move to the Premiership.  Having been named captain at Ajax by new coach Marco van Basten, its seems his club is intent on keeping the striker, who is entering the last year of his contract.  Spalletti hinted at interest in the Dutch international, who profiles as more of a lead striker than the other linked options.  He would play in front of Totti and push the defence.  It’s a role that would serve will for Totti, who is more comfortable and creative playing off a strong number nine.  Whether Roma can swoop for Huntelaar is the question, as both Manchester United and Arsenal are unlikely to let their long-term target quietly slip into Serie A.

The final option being mentioned in Juventus’s Vincenzo Iaquinta, who scored eight goals in 24 league matches for Juventus.  Seemingly stuck behind the Old Lady’s power duo of David Trezeguet and Alessandro Del Piero, Iaquinta was the subject of much speculation earlier this summer.  Since then he has affirmed his desire to stay with the Turin club, and with Juventus returning to Champions League player this year (and the age of the two main guys) Iaquinta will see a decent amount of time.  Because of that, Juventus not needing any other players, and their unwillingness to help a rival unless necessary, Iaquinta seems unlikely to move one season after switching from Udinese to Juve.

The last, lingering option here is Thiago Neves, a name I hesitate to keep bringing up, but Roma has been linked with the Brazilian winger for some time.  They need a left wing.  They need a second striker.  Neves can be either, and he is the one person on this list that is both good and available.  He may also be the cheapest, save Malouda.  Neves would adapt well to the Italian league and benefit from the opportunities players like Totti and Daniele De Rossi can provide him.  Whether Rome is the right place for a player with his backstory would ahve to be a concern.  Neves also carries with him some of the same concerns that would come with Baptista.  Can he contribute immediately, at a high level?  For the price, Neves would be worth the risk, especially considering you would also be able to afford a back-up plan.

The best option amongst these is Arshavin.  He’s the best player, the one option on this list that can steal points by himself.  After that, Neves should be the choice.  Malouda is the best fit tactically, better addresses a need (with Mirko Vucinic still able to play up top) while Huntelaar is the next best player.  Iaquinta is unlikely to be a real option.  Any of these options would improve Roma enough for the 2008-09 season to justify picking them to win the Scudetto.  But seemingly, for depth if nothing else, they need to make some move, even if it’s for Baptista.  If they can get two from this list, all the better.

Quotes

“We will sign a pair of players.” - Spalletti
“Right now we have to look elsewhere but calmly because there’s still time.” - Spalletti
“Baptista? I’ve never said anything about him. Baptista is a good player who has strong characteristics (but) we are strong in central midfield.” - Spalletti
“Huntelaar is a very good player but we will have to see and there will be no panic buys.” - Spalletti
” . . . we have not made a formal bid for [Vincenzo] Iaquinta but we consider him a strong player.” - Spalletti

Links

Roma accept Mutu defeat
Roma To Hunt Klass-Jan?
Spalletti admits defeat

I won’t go as far as to say Manchester United need Ajax striker Klans-Jan Huntelaar.   This is a team that won the Premiership and the Champions League last year and may not love  anybody (insert Cristiano Ronaldo comment here).  Manchester United could still improve, though.  The most obvious place  is acquiring a traditional number nine - a player who can augment Wayne Rooney and Carlos Tevez with more size, a target option.  With Alex Ferguson saying that the team will likely make one acquisition, it is a reasonable inference to think he’s looking for that striker.

Today, Huntelaar and club revealed that Manchester United is “very interested” in him.  Were it to happen, it’s a deal that makes sense for all.  United would be acquiring one of the more prolific scorers in Europe who would be traveling a similar route to former star Ruud van Nistelrooy, and while you can say that the van Nistelrooy experience is not applicable to Huntelaar, it is  something that could give Ferguson more comfort in the move.  Having successful integrated one Dutch striker before, Ferguson might feel some familiarity with the transition.  Huntelaar’s reported price tag  of £20 million should also make Manchester United more comfortable with has acquisition than, say, Dimitar Berbatov’s or Karim Benzema’s.

The move makes sense for Huntelaar, too.  United is an incredibly talented team that will give him the support he needs.  He is not a player that is going to make many of his own goals.  Like van Nistelrooy, his greatest strength is his resourcefulness.  His value is in his intelligence and reliability.  He will be able to feed off all the changes United’s talented attack can create.  Should  he have trouble initially doing this, United is a strong enough side to perform will without have to rely on his contribution.  He will get an adjustment period and, if need be, won’t even have to play every match at the point he arrives.

Of course, the exact same things could be said about Real Madrid and Arsenal, two other teams in the conversation.  But whereas those clubs already have target men up front, United could really use Huntelaar.  Judging by the comments the player’s made, Manchester United might not be the only team dreaming of the second coming of van Nistelrooy.

Links

Utd ‘interested’ in Huntelaar

Huntelaar lets United interest out the bag

Huntelaar Favours Old Trafford Move

Huntelaar Contract Stall Bound to Set Off Buzz

Striker Huntelaar says United are chasing him

Huntelaar claims United interest

Huntelaar drops United hint

Klass-Jan Huntelaar is one of the most talked about young strikers in the world thanks to his prolific scoring rate for Ajax in the Eredivisie. Earlier this year he had stated his intention to stay with the club, but today’s news that contract talks have stalled with the club are bound to set supporters of big clubs into raptures. Amongst every big club’s supporters, he has his group of fans that ardently wish the club would get him. Such is the case when you score 34 goals in 39 league games.

His name is going to come up a lot with Arsenal and Manchester United, two teams that have both need (assuming Emmanuel Adebayor leaves), system, and history that would point to such a move. Real Madrid has also been linked, though he would not fit with Ruud van Nistelrooy, as Euro 2008 and Mario van Basten’s lineup decisions hint at.

I am still very much up in the air on Huntelaar. The goal totals can not be ignored, and he has even been able to replicate some of that success at the international level. When I watch him play, however, I never am left with the impression that he will be an immediate impact player after he moves. In fact, I feel very much like I do about van Nistelrooy, who I feel is a great player but an opportunist whose success is more influenced by the play of others than most star players. That still leaves a very good player, one that stands to succeed in a place like Manchester United or Arsenal, but one that also may be slightly overrated.

Commenting on the breakdown in the contract negotiation, Ajax representatives felt Huntelaar is not going anywhere soon.  He still has two years left on his current contract.

Links

Huntelaar rejects new Ajax deal

Ajax will listen to offers for Huntelaar

Huntelaar’s future in doubt as Ajax talks stall

United and Arsenal on alert and Ajax striker Huntelaar’s contract talks stall