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Aug 22 2008

Robinho: How Did We Get To This Point?

In the last day Robinho has gone public with his wish to move away from Real Madrid, explicitly citing Chelsea as his desired destination.  Real Madrid, on the club’s web site, announced their intention to honor the request, taking a swipe at Manchester United in by saying they would never hold a player against his wishes.  And though it would seem the story has little to do with Cristiano Ronaldo, the loss of Robinho will undoubtedly have an effect on Madrid’s continued desire to lure the Portuguese star.  But first, Robinho.

Robinho wanting to move away from Real Madrid is a failure on the part of the Spanish champions.  As their summer became defined by their pursuit of Ronaldo, they alienated their young Brazilian star by trying to bring in somebody who would usurp him in the lineup.  While doing this, they were ignoring Robinho’s desire for a better salary, requested after a breakthrough season.  Whether he was entitled to job security or increased compensation, these were the first seeds in Robinho’s discontent.

When Chelsea and Luiz Felipe Scolari made it clear that they would take care of Robinho, the Brazilian had his motivation.  I suspect that even before Robinho made his feelings known, Madrid had considered indulging Chelsea’s interest.  When Arjen Robben was healthy last year, Real Madrid was just as good as when Robinho was on the right.  The Brazilian was one cog in a great team, but he was not indispensable.  Having acquired Rafael van der Vaart from Hamburg, Robinho could be sold and replaced from within.  It’s unclear that the drop-off from Robinho to van der Vaart, if there is one, would be worth the £30 million Chelsea is willing to pay.

The only thing that seemed to be keeping Robinho at Madrid was the idea, formed early in the summer, that he would only be sold after they bought Cristiano Ronaldo.  With Robinho having changed the whole equation by becoming a wantaway, Real has reconsider, realizing the Brazilian is not essential.  Their decision to sell him is less about a club policy of not holding onto wantaway players and more about Robinho being expendable.  After all, if Real Madrid really wanted to keep Robinho, the player would have a new contract by now.

The one part of this equation that does not add up to me is Chelsea’s motivations.  On Sunday, we saw the team that Chelsea can be.  We also saw how important Joe Cole will be to that club.  He is the hardest working, most consistent player on the club.  Perhaps there is the belief that Joe Cole and Robinho can play together, but the only basis I see for it costs Salomon Kalou his time on the left.  While is it said that Cole can play both sides of the pitch, it is unclear his production will be as high when he is consistently playing on the left.  Regardless, the improvement Chelsea gets is marginal.  They’re not acquiring Robinho and adding his firepower without costs.  In addition to the transfer fee, which is practically inconsequential to club owner Roman Abramovich, they are taking playing time away from either Cole or Kalou.  Is the difference between Robinho and either of their current wingers worth that money?  I think Real Madrid would answer no.

Some would note that Robinho could play more towards the middle for Chelsea, and while that may be true, Robinho is not going to replace Nicolas Anelka.  Robinho is not going to replace Didier Drogba.  Without one of those two target men in the lineup to push the line, the room with which Deco, Joe Cole, and Michael Ballack were able to reek havoc last week evaporates.  Particularly against Manchester United, where an unfettered Rio Ferdinand and Nemanja Vidic can dominate an opponent’s front line, somebody to push the defensive line is essential.  Robinho is not that player.  He will play on right wing or, in the rare instance, he will be the second striker in a 4-4-2.

I do not think the cost and disruption of bringing in Robinho is worth it for Chelsea.  Beyond just last weekend, throughout the whole preseason - even last season, except for one Wednesday in Moscow - Chelsea has not been lacking anything, as far as personnel is concerned.  That Luiz Felipe Scolari has made this team look completely rejuvenated over the last four weeks shows this team’s problem is not personnel.  The team’s problem was management, and Scolari has solved it.  They do not need Robinho; not at his price, not with the salary he will command (and the implication that will have on contracts at Stamford Bridge), and not with the tactical changes he would necessitate.  At best, this acquisition will leave them with a club that’s as good as they are now.

Regardless, Chelsea seems determined to make this happen, and I expect Robinho to be in London for a medical early next week.  The deal is not done, and one change of heart on the part of Real Madrid would see Robinho stay with a new contract.  They may need to apologize and make certain guarantees to him, but no club that has ever wanted a player was unwilling to do so.  But if Madrid lets him go, expect another full attack on Ronaldo - one incredible bid that would tempt Manchester United and potentially justify Robinho’s sale to the club’s supporters.

Club president Ramon Calderon would need to make such a push, because if Robinho does end up in London, Real Madrid’s fans will see the young Brazilian’s loss as a consquence of Calderon’s Ronaldo obsession.  If Robinho goes, Real needs to get Ronaldo.  Else, they lost one of their best players for no reason.

Links
Real change Robinho transfer tack
Real to “respect Robinho’s wishes”
Robinho will give us options to outwit rivals, says Scolari
Scolari believes £30m Robinho can life Chelsea
Scolari: Robinho too expensive
Real to let Robinho go
Real ready to sell Robinho to Chelsea
Robinho pleads with Real to sell him to Chelsea
Pepe: We should sell Robinho
Robinho asks Madrid to sell him to Chelsea
My objective is to play for Chelsea, admits Robinho
Robinho: ‘I want to leave Madrid’
Robinho wants Blues move
Robinho ‘dreaming’ of Chelsea move
Real’s Robinho determined to join Chelsea
Robinho: I want to leave Chelsea
Robinho: I want Chelsea move
Real’s Robinho determined to join Chelsea
Robinho determined to leave Real for Chelsea
Robinho: I want to leave for the Premier League
Chelsea in talks with Real over Robinho: report
Blues Up Robinho Bid
Real Madrid to Chelsea: Robinho can be yours for £32m
Robinho move still alive, according to agent
Robinho could yet make Premier League move
Agent reveals Robinho price tag
Robinho could still leave Madrid, says agent
Robinho remains in limbo
Blues close on Robinho
All about money for Robinho

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