World Football Postulant

If you read my EPL preview over at American Soccer Reader, you know I think highly of Middlesbrough’s chances this season. I picked them to finish ninth, and the simulation I wrote saw them as having a outside but meaningful chance at finishing in the top seven. But given a chance to pick Boro when they hosted a team of similar standing (by the prediction) to open the season, I picked the visitor.

That’s because that visitor was Tottenham. I suppose I bought into a bit of the hype, at least for one week. In that same season preview where I picked Middlesbrough ninth, I was highly critical of Tottenham’s unwillingness to improve their defense in the summer transfer window. I picks then to barely eek out a seventh place finish.

With them on the road in round one, they should not have been picked over Boro. But, I did the safe thing instead of the right thing. Missing on the pick is what I deserved.

I also deserved a miss on the Arsenal match, though I had the right winner. When Samir Nasri scored in the fourth minute, it looked like the rout I was prediction was on. But that was the last goal of the match, and the 5-0 result I predicted was a big miss. But evening out the way I’m kind of getting screwed by my scoring system judging me harshly when matches I see close enough to be draws end up being decided by one goal, I get a win for the Arsenal prediction because the system doesn’t care how I predict a club to win. It only cares that I predicted a win.

Here’s how I did in the other Round 1 predictions:

Overall: 4 wins, 1 draw, 5 losses
If a match I didn’t pick as a draw, ends in a draw, then I score it … a draw.
Best picks: No real genius predictions
Worst picks: Middlesbrough over Tottenham, Everton over Blackburn

Failing to pick Middlesbrough cost me a winning week. The other “losses” I can live with.

I didn’t predict Blackburn to beat Everton. Even looking back on it, I can’t fault the prediction. If you know somebody who did pick the Rovers over the Toffees in Round 1, shake your head as you tip your hat to them. It’s not a pick I regret making.

Besides the Manchester United match (where I made my pick before it was announced Carlos Tevez would be unavailable), the only prediction that was more than one goal (by differential) off was Bolton’s 3-1 in over Stoke. Stoke was overwhelmed upon their return to the Premiership, and their two biggest scoring threats (Liam Lawrence and Ricardo Fuller) did not start.

I guess those are the excuses.

Round 2 Predictions

The weekend’s marquee match-up is not on the weekend at all. Portsmouth hosts Manchester United on Monday night, one week after being embarrassed at Stamford Bridge. While Saturday and Sunday lack the name value and drama of that fixture, there are two particularly intriguing matches on the schedule.

Liverpool at home is normally considered a lot when Boro visits, but Liverpool looked terrible last week while Middlesbrough took down Spurs. It was not just in the Premier League that Liverpool struggled. Fernando Torres’ 83rd minute rocket gave the Reds a one goal win at Sunderland following their Champions League opener at Standard Liege that ended in a 0-0 draw. Those results put another way: Liverpool went 173 minutes over two games against Standard Liege and Sunderland without scoring a goal. To pick Liverpool this week, you need to believe they will turn it around, because a pick based on what we’ve seen would have to be made in favor of Middlesbrough.

Middlesbrough’s vanquished from last week, Tottenham, hosts Sunderland in what would have been considered a yawner three weeks ago.  The Black Cats, however, showed well against Liverpool and may debut striker Djibril Cisse, a mid-week addition from Marseille of Ligue 1.  Tottenham is reeling after a impotent performance last week and need to get three points from Sunderland if only to show that they can aspire beyond their mid-table finish of last season.

In each of those key matches, I like the home team to come through, albeit barely.  Liverpool, not a great club right now, will win based on pride.  At some point on Saturday the Reds will say to themselves “we’re supposed to be Liverpool.  How can this be happening?”  At that point, I like them to find a goal.  Still, I don’t feel great about this pick.

Tottenham, I pick because I suspect Dimitar Berbatov will start.  Were he not starting, I wouldn’t see any means by which the team we saw last week would score a meaningful goal against Sunderland.

I like Arsenal and Chelsea to have relatively easy matches, winning by multiple goals.  Blackburn would be a surprising 2-0-0 if these predictions hold, and given tehy have one of the easier matches this week, it seems like a safe choice.

The match of the week, Manchester United visiting Portsmouth, I have going to the Red Devils.  United seems to realize the task at hand, having drawn last week after Chelsea served the league notice.  This week’s Manchester United will look much different than last, with Carlos Tevez and Nani expected to return to action.  Anderson may also play, should Ferguson push his return from Beijing.  Add those three to the team that played last week and you have a completely different squad.  Portsmouth should play better, but as was the case last week, they’ll be out of their depth.

WFP Related Posts

• Tkashin is Manchester City’s Anchor
• Aston Villa Becomes Ninth Premiership Side in Europe
• Last Minute Goal From Kuyt Puts Liverpool in Champions League
• Champions League Group Stage Draw
• Implications of Steven Gerrard’s Injury
• Arsenal Embarrassment at Craven Cottage
• Potential Amicable Departure from Marseille for Cisse
• How Much Will Three Months Matter?
• The Aftermath of Keegan’s Resignation, from a Distance
• James Milner Leaves Newcastle for Aston Villa

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