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Ligue 1 Round 3 Predictions (Round 2 Picks Review)
Last week, I combined the Ligue 1 review article with the picks, but with me having time in my post-vacation world to break the rounds’ review into its own article, we can leave the picks to themselves. Below, you will see last week’s predictions along with my choices for Round 3. If the picks for Ligue 1’s third round are no better than those for the second, this article has already been a waste of your time.
When a league has the last promoted team at the top of the table after two rounds, unpredictable is an apt description. That is true of Le Championnat, particularly last week where Grenoble was left the only perfect team. That’s because Lyon was held scoreless at Lorient and Bordeaux stumbled to a loss at Paris St. Germain. My hat’s off to anybody who predicted those results.
Those are two of the six matches I got outright wrong. Two more were predicted matches that ended in draws (which I count as draws), leaving me with two correct picks: Marseille’s destruction of Auxerre and St. Etienne defeating Sochaux.
Picks Review: August 16-17
| Date | Home | Away | Pick | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| August 16, 2008 | Caen | Valenciennes | Draw, 1-1 | Caen 3-1 |
| August 16, 2008 | Lille | Le Mans | Lille, 1-0 | Le Mans, 3-1 |
| August 16, 2008 | Nantes | Monaco | Nantes, 2-0 | Draw, 1-1 |
| August 16, 2008 | Nice | Nancy | Draw, 0-0 | Nice 2, Nancy 1 |
| August 16, 2008 | St. Etienne | Sochaux | St. Etienne, 3-1 | St. Etienne, 2-1 |
| August 16, 2008 | Toulouse | Le Havre | Le Havre, 1-0 | Toulouse, 2-1 |
| August 16, 2008 | PSG | Bordeaux | Bordeaux, 2-0 | PSG, 1-0 |
| August 17, 2008 | Grenoble | Rennes | Rennes, 2-1 | Grenoble, 1-0 |
| August 17, 2008 | Lorient | Lyon | Lyon, 2-0 | Draw, 0-0 |
| August 17, 2008 | Marseille | Auxerre | Marseille, 3-1 | Marseille, 4-0 |
Overall: 2 wins, 2 draws, 6 losses
Any game not predicted a draw that ends in a draw is counted as … a draw.
Best picks: Marseille over Auxerre, St. Etienne over Sochaux
Worst picks: Rennes over Grenoble, Le Havre over Toulouse
Season, To-Date: 6 wins, 3 draws, 11 losses
It is the nature of these kind of prediction exercises that in the beginning of the season, when less is known about teams, predictions are more apt to be missed. That has certainly happened here, were I have been wrong on more than half of the games. We will have to wait and see how the other league’s start before we know if this phenomenon is isolated to Ligue 1.
Besides, this was never intended to be an exercise to show off an expertise I don’t have. It was intended to be a learning experience and something that’s fun. So far, so good. I’ve learned I’m no expert.
Round 3 Picks
Round 3 sees the three league favorites going up against the three promoted teams, something that should push them towards the top of the table, giving Ligue 1 some order. St. Etienne and PSG will have a chance to keep up with winnable road matches.
The fixture that jumps out to me is Valenciennes hosting Lorient. I liked Valenciennes to make a push for a European spot this season, but they stumbled badly last week at Caen. They host a Lorient side that held Lyon to a scoreless draw.
| Date | Home | Away | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| August 23, 2008 | Nancy (0-1-1) | Toulouse (1-0-1) | Nancy, 2-1 |
| August 23, 2008 | Le Havre (1-0-1) | Marseille (1-1-0) | Marseille, 3-0 |
| August 23, 2008 | Le Mans (1-0-1) | St. Etienne (1-0-1) | St. Etienne, 2-1 |
| August 23, 2008 | Monaco (1-1-0) | Caen (1-0-1) | Draw, 1-1 |
| August 23, 2008 | Sochaux (0-0-2) | Paris St. Germain (1-0-1) | Paris St. Germain, 1-0 |
| August 23, 2008 | Valenciennes (1-0-1) | Lorient (1-1-0) | Valenciennes, 1-0 |
| August 23, 2008 | Lyon (1-1-0) | Grenoble (2-0-0) | Lyon, 3-0 |
| August 24, 2008 | Rennes (0-1-1) | Lille (0-1-1) | Draw, 1-1 |
| August 24, 2008 | Auxerre (1-0-1) | Nice (1-0-1) | Draw, 1-1 |
| August 24, 2008 | Bordeaux (1-1-0) | Nantes (0-1-1) | Bordeaux, 2-0 |
I like the big three to get their wins, with none of them challenged. For the previously perfect Grenoble, Lyon will provide a wake-up call. Bordeaux will win comfortably but still have trouble finding their cutting edge. No such problem for Marseille.
Given the way I’m scoring my picks, draws are a little precarious as choices, but I like three matches to end tied (scoring be damned). Rennes and Lille’s tie will be a bit damaging for both teams, leaving them with two points in three rounds as the league’s best clubs start to gather points. If St. Etienne and Lorient can get wins, it will put a team like Rennes in an early, catch-up position, with PSG also moving up the table.
I don’t like Lorient to get their win, though. Valenciennes is going to have to do more to prove themselves unworthy of my affection, though I am starting to wonder if they are missing Steve Savidan more than I had accounted for.
In predicting three goals from both Lyon and Marseille, one of the league’s stars could step forward this week and take hold of the league’s lead in goals. Any of Karim Benzema, Sidney Gouvu, Bakari Kone or Hatem Ben Arfa could have big weeks, but I like Mamadou Niang to be the beneficiary of Bakari Kone’s efforts and score his third and fourth goals of the year.
A little silly of a prediction, but fun nonetheless.
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