Loading ...Aug 21 2008
Bundesliga Round 2 Picks
With the prerequisite Round 1 surprises, the Bundesliga started last weekend. Those few surprises help keep my pick results modest. Still a decent start (not as bad as Ligue 1), with most of the losses coming in matches that featured two teams I did not get to see in the preseason. I know I, perhaps, should not admit that I was less than adequately informed about the Energie Cottbus-Hoffenheim match, but I’m hoping you forgive me.
I was about to use the Frankfurt-Hertha Berlin match as the exemplar of the last sentence, but I had seen Frankfurt once during the preseason, and I think that actually made my prediction worse. Whereas I saw Frankfurt’s match against Real Madrid but hadn’t seen Berlin, I ended up taking Frankfurt, able to mentally construct a scenario where they would win. Berlin ended up going on the road and winning 2-0.
That scenario of ignorance is less likely to happen this week. I was about to watch about half of the league’s matches and caught highlights of the others, so there will be no more blind Arminia Bielefeld picks (though for that match, I should have known better to take Werder Bremen without Diego).
| Date | Home | Visitor | Pick | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| August 15, 2008 | Bayern Munich | Hamburger SV | No Pick (too late) | Draw, 2-2 |
| August 16, 2008 | Bayer Leverkusen | Borussia Dortmund | Bayer Leverkusen, 2-0 | Borussia Dortmund, 3-2 |
| August 16, 2008 | Armenia Bielefeld | Werder Bremen | Werder Bremen, 3-1 | Draw, 2-2 |
| August 16, 2008 | Karlsruhe | VfL Bochum | Draw, 1-1 | Karlsruhe, 1-0 |
| August 16, 2008 | Schalke 04 | Hannover 96 | Schalke 04, 3-0 | Schalke 04, 3-0 |
| August 16, 2008 | Energie Cottbus | Hoffenheim | Cottbus, 2-0 | Hoffenheim, 3-0 |
| August 16, 2008 | Wolfsburg | 1 FC Koln | Wolfsburg, 2-0 | Wolfsburg, 2-1 |
| August 17, 2008 | Borussia M’gladbach | Stuttgart | Stuttgart, 3-1 | Stuttgart, 3-1 |
| August 17, 2008 | Frankfurt | Hertha Berlin | Frankfurt, 2-1 | Hertha Berlin, 2-0 |
Overall: 3 wins, 1 draws, 4 losses
Any match not predicted a draw that ends in a draw is counted as … a draw.
Best picks: Schalke 04 over Hannover 96 (Bingo!), Stuttgart over M’gladbach (Bingo!)
Worst picks: Cottbus over Hoffenheim, Frankfurt over Berlin
I’ll take it.
I haven’t looked at how I did with my Premiership picks. That will come later tonight or tomorrow, and the standards should be a bit higher for that set anyway. But compared to how I’m doing with my Ligue 1 picks (a league that I am a little more familiar with than the Bundesliga), I am doing fine here. It is early in the season, so a lot of these picks are a crap-shoot (especially where two lower table teams are matched up). Things will get better.
I can’t help but be a little disappointed in Bayer Leverkusen, though. Dortmund pounced on them, as if Bayer did not carry the same intensity level as their visitors. You could see the disappointment in the players immediately after the final whistle as they lay on the pitch, staring upwards, downtrodden at having given up points. Well, Bayer, I’m disappointed, too.
Round 2 Picks
Saturday looks to be an incredibly day in the Bundesliga. Whereas I usually feel a bit obligated to watch Premier League match-ups first, I may be too tempted to interrupt that with one (or more) of Dortmund-Munich, Bremen-Schalke, and Stuttgart-Bayer Leverkusen all match-up clubs that will contend for European football slots, each of whom take interesting angles into Saturday’s matches.
Leverkusen is the only one of these six without a point from Round 1. They go on the road to a Stuttgart team that looked good on the road against Borussia M’gladbach, a club that showed themselves capable. Leverkusen, on the other hand, failed to rise to the occasion against visiting Dortmund. Should they repeat such a performance this week, they could find themselves six points behind Stuttgart and Schalke.
| Date | Home | Visitor | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| August 22, 2008 | Hannover | Energie Cottbus | Hannover, 2-0 |
| August 23, 2008 | Hoffenheim | Borussia M’gladbach | Draw, 2-2 |
| August 23, 2008 | Hamburger SV | Karlsruhe | Hamburger SV, 3-0 |
| August 23, 2008 | Borussia Dortmund | Bayern Munich | Draw, 1-1 |
| August 23, 2008 | Werder Bremen | Schalke 04 | Schalke, 2-1 |
| August 23, 2008 | Stuttgart | Bayer Leverkusen | Draw, 2-2 |
| August 23, 2008 | Hertha Berlin | Arminia Bielefeld | Hertha Berlin, 2-0 |
| August 24, 2008 | 1. FC Koln | Frankfurt | 1. FC Koln, 2-1 |
| August 24, 2008 | VfL Bochum | Wolfsburg | VfL Bochum, 2-1 |
The Schalke match was difficult to pick because of all their injuries. Jefferson Farfán, Orlando Engelaar, and Jermaine Jones are all hurt (to different degrees), and without them Schalke’s biggest advantage (their midfield) is mitigated. Of course, they still have Ivan Ratikic and Fabian Ernst, as well as Kevin Kurányi up top and Halil Altintop filling in for Farfán. Plus, I can not bring myself to take Bremen against a quality opponent when, without Diego last week, they gave a point to Arminia Bielfeld. Fool me once …
I think Munich will have a lot of trouble getting their point even if Luca Toni plays. As of the time of these picks, it’s not clear whether (or how much) he will play. Even if he does, I don’t look for him to be in sync, but I’m picking them to scrounge out a draw. They will have to assume that Schalke will win. Their intensity will be up, though I still think they’ll come up a little short and finish Round 2 four points behind the league leaders.
Those league leaders will include Hertha Berlin, if my predictions hold, who will sit with six points, a plus-four differential, and no goals allowed. Aren’t predictions fun?
I’m taking Bayer to play with a similar urgency and draw against Stuttgart. The disappointment I saw in the Leverkusen players after they lost last week tells be they are away of the significance of giving Dortmund those points. That awareness will help them take a point from a Stuttgart team that may have had it a bit easy last week.
If you feel like picking along or have any comments, use the space, below. I would love to see how you think Week 2 of the Bundesliga will play out.
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