Loading ...Aug 15 2008
EPL Preview Done at ASR
This morning, I finished my English Premier League preview for American Soccer Reader. Having spent the better part of a week on it, I am very happy with the product. Yes, I could do for a good editor (what else is new), but I think I’ve given each club its just due and come up with a viable picture of the league
The one facet that distinguishes my preview from any other I’ve seen is the use of modelling to play out the season a number of times in order to get a more robust view of the league. I wrote a simple script that took the goals for, goals allowed totals for each time to simulate played seasons. I played 1,000 seasons to get some basic probabilities for each team.
I’m not sure if any of that helps describe this season’s Premiership, but it was fun. From that and my by-the-eye analysis, here are some highlights.
- Manchester United’s my pick to three-peat, but they won the league in less than 50% of the seasons.
- The biggest competition looks to be Arsenal, not Chelsea.
- Nobody beyond the big four looks a threat to win the league.
- Aston Villa made Champions League is roughly 1/3 of the seasons.
- Tottenham barely qualified for UEFA Cup.
- Middlesbrough climbs to the fringe of Europe.
- Blackburn and Manchester City drop to the edge of relegation.
- West Brom survives.
- Bolton does not.
- Cesc Fabregas is our Player of the Year.
- Fernando Torres is our leading goal scorer.
Please go and check out the previews. Each team has an individual preview that walks through their expected record, goals for and allowed, best and worse case scenarios, leading goal scorers and their probabilities for winning the league, qualifying for Champions League, finishing top seven, and being relegated.
I will be updating the WFP American Soccer Reader page (above) this afternoon.
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